The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The ration card system is a kind of support provided by the state to individuals through the provision of essential goods at subsidized prices during the period of war or crisis. For many years, the ration card was an essential source of food supplies to Iraqis, especially under the economic siege of the nineties, But after the events of 2003 and the passage of Iraq's political and economic changes required radical reforms in the ration card system according to the recipes of the International Monetary Fund. It was evident from the estimation of the demand function that the price did not have the greatest impact on this type of goods because the ration card items are subsidized by the government. There is also a
... Show MoreThe research amid to find out the extent of Iraqi oil companies commitment to implement internal control procedures in accordance with the updated COSO framework. As the research problem was represented in the fact that many of the internal control procedures applied in the Iraqi oil companies are incompatible with most modern international frameworks for internal control, including the integrated COSO framework, issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Tradeway Committee. The research followed the quantitative approach to handling and analysing data by designing a checklist to represent the research tool for collecting data. The study population was represented in the Iraqi oil companies, while the study sample
... Show MoreBunium is one of the interested genus that grow in different region of Iraq, it is within the family Umbelliferae (Apiaceae), and the species within this family have a considerable fruit characteristics. The species that were chosen in this study are: B. brachyactis (Post) H. Wolff, B. caroides (Boiss.) Hausskn. Ex Bornm., B. chaerophylloides (Regel& Schmalh.) Drude, B. rectangulum Boiss. & Hausskn., B. verruculosum C.C.Towns. and B. avromanum (Boiss.& Hausskn) Drude., the study found that the fruits of these species have 5 protrusions different in size but all have the same number of vittae, but some are semiler in size and some are not, the number of vascular element are varied between these species, anatomical charact
... Show MoreThis research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a
... Show MoreThe Developing economies of countries have witnessed essential changes to words the development of tourism industry in the 21st century . in addition to adopting same of policies and strategies to grow up with the tourism sector to make it one of the important economic sector to compete the tourist cal developments in the wear .
As for the tourism sector in Iraq ,it's still afresh one , has many of elements which can be in vested ,needs a wide strategies of tourist cal in statutes and variety completive services and change of success for the locale and forgin investor ,the essential aim after this research is to prompt the national economic through the tourism industry and making concisen
... Show MoreGeotechnical characterization of the sites has been investigated with the collection of borehole data from different sources. Using the data, grain size distribution curves have been developed to understand the particle size distribution of the alluvium present. These curves were further used for preliminary assessment of liquefiable areas. From geotechnical characterization, it has been observed that the soil profile in the two sites is dominated by sand and silty sand.Seed and Idriss (1971) approachhas been usedevaluatethe liquefaction potentialbydeterminationof the relation between the maximum ground acceleration (a max/g) valuesdue to an earthquake and the relative density of a sand deposit in the field. The results reveal that
... Show MoreThis study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr
... Show MoreTwo groups of chronic hepatitis B and C virus patients were divided into Pre-treated patients (25 CHB patients with positive HBs Ag for more than 6 months and 40 CHC patients), and post-treated patients [12 CHB patients (4, 6, and 2 were treated with lamivudine, IFN-? and combination of LMV + IFN-? respectively), and 27 patients for CHC (3, 13 and 11 patients were treated with Ribavirin, IFN-? and combination therapy (RBV+ IFN-?) respectively].These patients were followed up for 6 months. By using ELISA technique, levels of IL-6, IL-10, IFN-? and TNF-? were measured in vivo and in vitro (supernatant of PBMCs stimulated with PHA) and compared with healthy control. The mean level of IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-? in CHB patients showed significant dif
... Show MoreThis study aims to estimate the accuracy of digital elevation models (DEM) which are created with exploitation of open source Google Earth data and comparing with the widely available DEM datasets, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), version 3, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), version 2. The GPS technique is used in this study to produce digital elevation raster with a high level of accuracy, as reference raster, compared to the DEM datasets. Baghdad University, Al Jadriya campus, is selected as a study area. Besides, 151 reference points were created within the study area to evaluate the results based on the values of RMS.Furthermore, th
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