The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Environmental Tax is deemed as one of the most important tools that can be used to eliminate the problem of oil –based environment pollution resulted out of oil products processes and this has been significantly approved by the experience in those leading countries in the field of protecting the environment against pollution whereas oil-producing countries which are rather awkward in maintaining the environment such as Iraq , suffer from notorious environmental effects pertaining to oil product processes.
The problem of the research is represented the increased and constant rise in the volume of the environmental pollutants resulted from the processes managed by the intern
... Show MoreThe research, whose goal was to study students' failure in secondary school in Iraq, found that 50% of the Iraqi governorates achieved the lowest student failure rates, and Baghdad governorate had the highest percentage of repeaters. And that half of the provinces in Iraq have males constitute 70% of the repeaters, and failure in the exam represented 79.7% of the reasons for failure, and that half of the students who failed are confined to the first and third intermediate grades at a rate of 51.9% , and the research revealed that the security instability was the most influential factor in Students fai
The optimization of artificial gas lift techniques plays a crucial role in the advancement of oil field development. This study focuses on investigating the impact of gas lift design and optimization on production outcomes within the Mishrif formation of the Halfaya oil field. A comprehensive production network nodal analysis model was formulated using a PIPESIM Optimizer-based Genetic Algorithm and meticulously calibrated utilizing field-collected data from a network comprising seven wells. This well group encompasses three directional wells currently employing gas lift and four naturally producing vertical wells. To augment productivity and optimize network performance, a novel gas lift design strategy was proposed. The optimization of
... Show MoreSemi-parametric regression models have been studied in a variety of applications and scientific fields due to their high flexibility in dealing with data that has problems, as they are characterized by the ease of interpretation of the parameter part while retaining the flexibility of the non-parametric part. The response variable or explanatory variables can have outliers, and the OLS approach have the sensitivity to outliers. To address this issue, robust (resistance) methods were used, which are less sensitive in the presence of outlier values in the data. This study aims to estimate the partial regression model using the robust estimation method with the wavel
... Show MoreExposing the dorsal superficial skin of rats to partial-depth burn leads to bacterial and microbes Invasion. Topical treatment is required in most superficial burn cases Moist exposed burn ointment (MEBO) protects wounds from infection and enhances healing without any harmful effects of purified chemicals is caused. The topical using of HA gel in rat models with full and partial thickness surgical wounds shows enhancement in wound repair. In this study, we compared the healing efficacy of topical use of hyaluronic acid gel products with MEBO as standard management in rats that were exposed to a partial-thickness burn. The experiment included twenty-four (24) adult albino rats of male sex with weight (150-220 gm) of 3 months’ age divided i
... Show MoreThis work presents a novel technique for the detection of oil aging in electrical transformers using a single mode optical fiber sensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The aging of insulating oil is a critical issue in the maintenance and performance of electrical transformers, as it can lead to reduce insulation properties, increase risk of electrical breakdown, and decrease operational lifespan. Many parameters are calculated in this study in order to examine the efficiency of this sensor like sensitivity (S), signal to noise ratio (SNR), resolution (refractive index unit) and figure of merit (FOM) and the values are for figure of merit is 11.05, the signal to noise ratio is 20.3, the sensitivity is 6.63, and the resolution is 3
... Show MoreMultilayer reservoirs are currently modeled as a single zone system by averaging the reservoir parameters associated with each reservoir zone. However, this type of modeling is rarely accurate because a single zone system does not account for the fact that each zone's pressure decreases independently. Pressure drop for each zone has an effect on the total output and would result in inter-flow and the premature depletion of one of the zones. Understanding reservoir performance requires a precise estimation of each layer's permeability and skin factor. The Multilayer Transient Analysis is a well-testing technique designed to determine formation properties in more than one layer, and its effectiveness over the past two decades has been
... Show MoreAbstract:
The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im
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