The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The social contract represents a set of laws and determinants agreed upon by a group of individuals in order to organize society for the better.This agreement guarantees them to live in peace according to the pre-agreed laws, and on the basis of that, it represents the key to resolving the crisis relations between the state and society, and this is what prompted Iraqi society to move towards the formulation of a new social contract through popular protest movements in 2019.To overcome the old social contract that shook the trust between the state and society as a result of its negative outputs at various political, economic and social levels, and many problems emerged that hindered the process of building the social contra
... Show MoreBackground: This study aimed to compare the surface microhardness (MH) and mineral content of white spot lesions(WSLs) after using bioactive glass (BAG)casein phosphopep-tides-amorphous calcium phosphate(CPP-ACP),and nanohydroxyapatite(Nano-HAP) under pHcycling. Material and method:18 sound maxillary first premolar were used for the study.10 were selected for the vickers microhardness test, For Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy analysis (EDX), the remaining 8 premolar teeth were used, 40 sections of enamel blocks (Four from each tooth) were produced from the middle part of the buccal and palatal surfaces of teeth for MH test while 48 sections of enamel blocks (Six from each tooth) were produced for EDX analysis. Enamel slabs were divi
... Show MoreBackground: This study aimed to compare the surface microhardness (MH) and mineral content of white spot lesions(WSLs) after using bioactive glass (BAG)casein phosphopep-tides-amorphous calcium phosphate(CPP-ACP),and nanohydroxyapatite(Nano-HAP) under pHcycling. Material and method:18 sound maxillary first premolar were used for the study.10 were selected for the vickers microhardness test, For Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy analysis (EDX), the remaining 8 premolar teeth were used, 40 sections of enamel blocks (Four from each tooth) were produced from the middle part of the buccal and palatal surfaces of teeth for MH test while 48 sections of enamel blocks (Six from each tooth) were produced for EDX analysis. Enamel slabs were
... Show MoreLong memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir
... Show MoreThis study included 46 patients with liver hydatid cyst diagnosed clinically and surgically. Control group consist of 22 healthy volunteers. The patients were divided according to the size of the cysts into more and less than 5 cm diameter size, 33 and 13, respectively. Also they were divided into primary and secondary hydatid cyst infection, 30 and 16, respectively. Significant increase of GOT, GPT and ALP levels were recorded due to hydatid cyst infection and had direct effect on the liver function, beside an increase in total bilirubin in patients serum compared with the control, also the same occurred in the secondary infection compared with primary infection, patients with> 5 cm showed significant increase in the above levels compared
... Show MoreCaffeine (1,3,7-trimethylxanthine), which is the most widely consumed stimulant in the world, had been isolated and estimated gravimetrically in fifteen different commercial kinds of tea found in the Iraqi market.The kinds of tea were chosen according to their differences in the degree of fermentation and the method of processing i.e. black , gray and green . The isolated caffeine was identified by melting point, sublimation, TLC, chemical tests, UV , IR , HPLC and CHNO analysis. &nb
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