In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decades.
Fiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).
It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha
... Show MoreIt is important that real time stability in smart grids is ensured as the integration of renewables and the complexity of the systems grows. In this paper, we provide a solid architecture, which combines a Residual CNNLSTM deep neural network predictor, FPGA-accelerated Model Predictive Control (MPC), and SHAP-based explainability. The proposed method predicted with 99.8% accuracy using the Electrical grid Stability Simulated Dataset (UCI) and minimized the instability rates surpassing 85 percent in all operating conditions. Meeting real-time operating needs, FPGA deployment on a Xilinx Zynq UltraScale+ provided 3.1 ms latency and 5 times reduced energy consumption against CPU processing. By emphasizing bus voltage and frequency as major in
... Show MoreModern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan
... Show More<p>Currently, breast cancer is one of the most common cancers and a main reason of women death worldwide particularly in<strong> </strong>developing countries such as Iraq. our work aims to predict the type of tumor whether benign or malignant through models that were built using logistic regression and neural networks and we hope it will help doctors in detecting the type of breast tumor. Four models were set using binary logistic regression and two different types of artificial neural networks namely multilayer perceptron MLP and radial basis function RBF. Evaluation of validated and trained models was done using several performance metrics like accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (area under receiver ope
... Show MoreThe technology of reducing dimensions and choosing variables are very important topics in statistical analysis to multivariate. When two or more of the predictor variables are linked in the complete or incomplete regression relationships, a problem of multicollinearity are occurred which consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with incorrect estimates results.
There are several methods proposed to address this problem, including the partial least squares (PLS), used to reduce dimensional regression analysis. By using linear transformations that convert a set of variables associated with a high link to a set of new independent variables and unr
... Show MoreEmpirical and statistical methodologies have been established to acquire accurate permeability identification and reservoir characterization, based on the rock type and reservoir performance. The identification of rock facies is usually done by either using core analysis to visually interpret lithofacies or indirectly based on well-log data. The use of well-log data for traditional facies prediction is characterized by uncertainties and can be time-consuming, particularly when working with large datasets. Thus, Machine Learning can be used to predict patterns more efficiently when applied to large data. Taking into account the electrofacies distribution, this work was conducted to predict permeability for the four wells, FH1, FH2, F
... Show MoreSorghum cultivation is often accompanied by low field emergence rates and weak seedlings, which may be due to genetic or environmental stress. A factorial experiment was conducted in the spring and fall seasons of 2022 using a randomized complete block design with split-plot arrangement and four replications. Planting dates (spring season: Feb. 15th, Mar. 1st, 15th, and Apr. 1st, 15th; fall season: Jun. 15th, Jul. 1st, 15th, and Aug. 1st, 15th) were allocated to the main plots. Seeds stimulation treatments (35% banana peel extract + 100 mg L-1 citric acid and distilled water soaking treatment only) were allocated to the subplots. The interaction treatment (banana peel extract + citric acid) with the planting date of April 15 showed the high
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