In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decades.
This paper deals with modelling and control of Euler-Bernoulli smart beam interacting with a fluid medium. Several distributed piezo-patches (actuators and/or sensors) are bonded on the surface of the target beam. To model the vibrating beam properly, the effect of the piezo-patches and the hydrodynamic loads should be taken into account carefully. The partial differential equation PDE for the target oscillating beam is derived considering the piezo-actuators as input controls. Fluid forces are decomposed into two components: 1) hydrodynamic forces due to the beam oscillations, and 2) external (disturbance) hydrodynamic loads independent of beam motion. Then the PDE is discretized usi
Objectives. The current study aimed to predict the combined mesiodistal crown widths of maxillary and mandibular canines and premolars from the combined mesiodistal crown widths of maxillary and mandibular incisors and first molars. Materials and Methods. This retrospective study utilized 120 dental models from Iraqi Arab young adult subjects with normal dental relationships. The mesiodistal crown widths of all teeth (except the second molars) were measured at the level of contact points using digital electronic calipers. The relation between the sum mesiodistal crown widths of the maxillary and mandibular incisors and first molars and the combined mesiodistal crown widths of the maxillary and mandibular canines and premolars was as
... Show MoreThe textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi
... Show MoreRegression models are one of the most important models used in modern studies, especially research and health studies because of the important results they achieve. Two regression models were used: Poisson Regression Model and Conway-Max Well- Poisson), where this study aimed to make a comparison between the two models and choose the best one between them using the simulation method and at different sample sizes (n = 25,50,100) and with repetitions (r = 1000). The Matlab program was adopted.) to conduct a simulation experiment, where the results showed the superiority of the Poisson model through the mean square error criterion (MSE) and also through the Akaiki criterion (AIC) for the same distribution.
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... Show MoreLearning the vocabulary of a language has great impact on acquiring that language. Many scholars in the field of language learning emphasize the importance of vocabulary as part of the learner's communicative competence, considering it the heart of language. One of the best methods of learning vocabulary is to focus on those words of high frequency. The present article is a corpus based approach to the study of vocabulary whereby the research data are analyzed quantitatively using the software program "AntWordprofiler". This program analyses new input research data in terms of already stored reliable corpora. The aim of this article is to find out whether the vocabularies used in the English textbook for Intermediate Schools in Iraq are con
... Show MoreSurface water samples from different locations within Tigris River's boundaries in Baghdad city have been analyzed for drinking purposes. Correlation coefficients among different parameters were determined. An attempt has been made to develop linear regression equations to predict the concentration of water quality constituents having significant correlation coefficients with electrical conductivity (EC). This study aims to find five regression models produced and validated using electrical conductivity as a predictor to predict total hardness (TH), calcium (Ca), chloride (Cl), sulfate (SO4), and total dissolved solids (TDS). The five models showed good/excellent prediction ability of the parameters mentioned above, which is a very
... Show MoreThis paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
Methods of estimating statistical distribution have attracted many researchers when it comes to fitting a specific distribution to data. However, when the data belong to more than one component, a popular distribution cannot be fitted to such data. To tackle this issue, mixture models are fitted by choosing the correct number of components that represent the data. This can be obvious in lifetime processes that are involved in a wide range of engineering applications as well as biological systems. In this paper, we introduce an application of estimating a finite mixture of Inverse Rayleigh distribution by the use of the Bayesian framework when considering the model as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We employed the Gibbs sampler and
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to estimate the hidden population. Here، the number of drug users in Baghdad was calculated for the male age group (15-60) years old ، based on the Bayesian models. These models are used to treat some of the bias in the Killworth method Accredited in many countries of the world.
Four models were used: random degree، Barrier effects، Transmission bias، the first model being random، an extension of the Killworth model، adding random effects such as variance and uncertainty Through the size of the personal network، and when expanded by adding the fact that the respondents have different tendencies، the mixture of non-random variables with random to produce
... Show MoreMost of the studies conducted in the past decades focused on the effect of interest rates and exchange rates on domestic investment under the assumption that the independent variables have the same effect on the dependent variable, but there were limited studies that investigated the unequal effects of changes in interest rates and exchange rates, both positive and negative, on domestic investment. This study used a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to assess the unequal effects of the real interest rate and real exchange rate variables on domestic investment in Egypt for the period 1976 - 2020. The results revealed that positive and negative shocks for both exchange rates have unequal effects on
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