Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The research aims to identify the availability of some basic competencies that are required to be available to workers in digital agricultural Extension from the point of view of senior management, middle management, and, employees with Post-graduate education degrees, represented by the following: Transition to digital agricultural Extension for sustainable and smart family farms, benefiting from international expertise and experiences in applying for Digital agricultural Extension, preparing and implementing Extension messages through platforms, factors affecting the effectiveness of digital agricultural Extension and its platforms, following up and evaluating the activities and programs of the digital Extension platform. The research pop
... Show MoreThe research is trying to identify the investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impact, on the Profitability ratios of the company, and whether the company's scientific methods followed in the measurement of these risks, and conducted research in the National Insurance Company. by relying on its annual budget as well as the annual reports, The search dealing with these data in theoretical and practical major premise to statistically significant between to investment portfolio risk and financial performance correlation and reach a set of conclusions and recommendations which are the following.
investments include many ri
... Show MoreThe relationship between the clinical singes and some of the hematological and biochemical values in 126 cases of local breed and Shammi breed goats (from both sexes) diagnosed as cases of malnutrition from 230 goats examined .The clinical examination include (beside the general inspection and case history) body temperature, respiratory and pulse rates, mucus membranes skin and coat. Examination of the blood samples included RBCs count, Hb concentration, PCV % and values of cupper, magnesium, phosphorus, and potassium. The results showed that the mean body temperature of these goats was lower than in normal goats, while the respiratory and pulse rates were higher .Examination of blood revealed decrease in the means of RBCs counts ,Hb con
... Show MoreThe present study attempts to identify some of the differences between the skull bones of two species Cyprinus carpio and Carassius carassius, which belong to the Cyprinidae family. The study is a taxonomic diagnostic study between the two species which are considered local fish abundant in the Iraqi aquatic environment
Objective: preparing exercises for the third intensity zone for strength and speed for the legs, and identifying their effect on some physiological and biochemical indicators for (the level of lactic acid concentration, the concentration of sodium bicarbonate, the concentration level of (potassium K+) and (sodium Na+) in the blood, and the number of breathing times (RF) Research methodology: the experimental research method was adopted by designing the experimental and control groups on a sample of Army Sports Club players amounting to (16) players, deliberately selected (100%) from their community using a comprehensive enumeration method, and then divided into two groups of equal number, After determining the tests for physiologica
... Show MoreThe aim of the research: To identify the trends of students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences towards modern teaching methods. To determine the type of strategies used that students prefer in practical lessons. In light of the research results, the researcher adopted the descriptive method because it is appropriate for the study. The research community is represented by students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences (fourth stage), amounting to (320) students. Conclusions: The research results indicate that students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences have positive and strong attitudes towards using modern teaching methods, and they realize their reality in improving interaction
... Show MoreEnglish allows for consonant sequences at the beginning of words, which poses a challenge for speakers of other languages, especially those whose native languages do not contain such sequences, such as Arabic. Therefore, this study aims to investigate students’ recognition and production of initial consecutive consonants in relation to gender, and the significance of the statistical differences between students in recognition and pronunciation of consecutive consonants. Consequently, a cohort of fifty-two Iraqi college students (18 males and 34 females) were selected as a sample. A multiple-choice test of two phases was used as a research instrument. The results showed that females outperformed males in recognizing and producing c
... Show MoreBackground: L. sativum, are traditionally used for the treatment of various diseases and thought to have medicinal value. Isolates from many part of the world is now multidrug resistant. Therefore, there is an urgent need to look for and test an alternative herbal drug.
Objective: The present study aimed to evaluate the antibacterial activity of L. Sativum seed extract against multi drug resistant (MDR) and sensitive Pseudomonas aeruginosa clinical isolates.
Subjects and Methods: An ethanolic and aqueous stock extracts were prepared from L. sativum seed plant then serial dilutions were prepared and the obtained concentrations (50, 25, 12.5 and 6.2 mg/ml) were tested against 30 multidrug-resistan
... Show MoreThe research aims to achieve proof of convergence between optimal costs and standard costs in calculating costs for the economic unit, support efforts aimed at adopting optimal costs in cost accounts and accounting thought in general, and achieve benefit from the theory of convergence between optimal costs and standard costs in the field of achieving actual costs in The economic unit in order to reduce and converge, and this came to address the possibility of adopting the concept of optimal costs in the production costs calculations for the purposes of rationalizing administrative decisions, and rationalizing the preparation of financial statements within management accounting.
The research concluded that
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