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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The benefits extracted from Surah of Prophet Mohammed ( peace upon him and on his family) from the beginning of Surah until the end of Ayah 15/ the 1st part
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The current study is concerned  over the  benefits  from  our Prophet  ' Surah , these   benefits  are seven  which are : the first : (  The  losing  , disappointment ,  weakness  in the affairs  of those disbelievers ,the second : showing the affairs of the believers   in respect to integrity ,  forgiveness   and rest, the third :  Indicating  the big difference  between the believers and disbelievers , each team has   his own characteristics that being distinguished from the other,  I have explained  the benefit   that the disbelievers are in a difficult

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2025
Journal Name
Acta Scientiarum Polonorum Administratio Locorum
The function of Feng Shui’s five elements in encouraging urban public space for social interaction. Case study: Al-Arabi and Al-Washash neighborhoods in the Al-Mansour district, Baghdad
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Motives: This study examines the integration of Feng Shui principles into urban public spaces to enhance social interaction, livability, and environmental harmony. The case study focuses on the Al-Arabi and Al-Washash neighbourhoods in Baghdad, exploring how spatial characteristics influence engagement and energy circulation (Qi) within the urban network. The motivation arises from deficiencies in connectivity, shading, greenery, and water features, which limit social and aesthetic vibrancy. Aim: The objectives are to evaluate spatial and social dynamics through the Feng Shui Public-Space Index (FS-PSI), Space Syntax analysis, and resident surveys, and to propose strategies using Feng Shui design proxies to improve energy flow, acce

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 23 2023
Journal Name
Cumhuriyet Dental Journal
The effectiveness of continuous versus sequential chelation in the removal of smear layer and their influence on push-out bond strength of Bio-C sealer (An in vitro study)
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Objectives: Successful endodontic treatment outcome requires effective shaping and cleaning of root canals. This study aims to evaluate the smear layer removal after continuous chelation (CC) ) NaOCL\HEDP( and sequential chelation (SC) )NaOCL\EDTA( and their influence on the push-out bond strength (POBS) of Bio-C sealer. Materials and Methods: Palatal roots of the maxillary first molar (n=72) were divided into four groups (n=18) as follows: 3% NaOCL, SC: 3% NaOCL followed by 17% EDTA, CC: 3% NaOCL \9% HEDP and Distilled water. Thirty-two roots (n=8/group) were split longitudinally for smear layer evaluation using SEM. Forty roots were obturated with Guttapercha and Bio-C sealer using a single cone technique. Thre

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The morphological structure of nouns and verbs in the novel "Astonishment" by the novelist Aharon Applefield, Morphological study.: מבנה שמות עצם והפעלים ברומן תימהון לסופר אהרון אפלפלד עיון מורפולוגי
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This research sheds light on the morphological structure of nouns and verbs in the novel "ASTONISHMENT" by the novelist Aharon Applefield by analysing selected models from the novel in a morphological analysis in order to identify the most important morphological features of this structure according to a statistical analytical approach.

 The morphological structure is the main pillar of the linguistic structure of the literary text. Morphology is the science that studies the word, by which its structure and original letters are known, and the change that has occurred to it.  The aesthetics of the fictional text is reflected in this structure, through which the writer conveys his ideas and narrations to the reader.  The research

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Role of the Family in investment Effect of the Mates in Evaluating the Childs Acceptance (2-5 years) of rich foods and inhancemenl rein for cement of the social love concepts: The Role of the Family in investment Effect of the Mates in Evaluating the Childs Acceptance (2-5 years) of rich foods and inhancemenl rein for cement of the social love concepts
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Abstract:
The aim of the present research is to evaluate the child’s nutritional
method (2-5 years old) which is based on his resistance of the food highly rich
with nutritional elements and his acceptance of the food of a low nutritional
value in addition to his having forbidden food with other mates and making
use of all mates when having food, in establishing the sound social values and
affection since child hood. The required statistical equation have been used
by the researcher namely (Z test).
The sample of the present study consists of (26) children who were selected
intentionally and randomly from the kindergartens of Al-Bayaa region and the
college of Education for women. The questionnaires were d

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 24 2023
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal
PRAGMATIC AWARENESS OF SPEECH ACTS, POLITENESS, AND GRICE MAXIMS OF IRAQI EFL POSTGRADUATE STUDENTS الوعي التداولي بأفعال الكلام والتأدب والاقوال المأثورة لطلبة الدراسات العليا العراقيين في اللغة الانجليزية كلغة اجنبية
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This study examines postgraduate students’ awareness of pragmatic aspects, including Grice Maxims, Politeness, and Direct and Indirect forms of speech. According to Paul Grice’s theory of implicature, which is considered one of the most important contributions to pragmatics, this paper discusses how postgraduate students can meet the cooperative principle when communicating effectively. It also outlines how does politeness principles influence obeying or violating the maxims and how is the use of direct or indirect forms of utterances prompted by politeness. Sixteen master’s students of Linguistics and Literature were asked to take a multiple-choice test. The test will be represented along with the interpretation of each optio

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Open Veterinary Journal
<b>Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of infective <i>Streptococci</i> recovered from local and imported mozzarella cheese from different markets in Baghdad</b>
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Background: This research identified Streptococci spp. depending on culture, biochemistry, the VITEK technique, ability to produce biofilms, and antibiotic resistance. Aim: The goal of this study was to perform microbiological procedures to evaluate the qualitative qualities of mozzarella cheese against infective Streptococci using microbiological care. Methods: Sixty (60) mozzarella cheese samples were brought from diverse markets in Baghdad from October 2023 to December 2023 at the Zoonoses Research Unit and Veterinary Public Health Department, Veterinary Medicine College, University of Baghdad. Culture of samples on agar (MacConkey and blood) and aerobically incubated at 37°C for 48 hours. Gram staining purified colonies to

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 29 2024
Journal Name
Eximia
The cognitive and educational importance of the academic teacher for developing the applied skills of third-stage female students in the subject of teaching methods from their point of view
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The research aimed to prepare a measure of the importance of enlightenment, academic education, and applied skills for third-stage female students, including teaching methods from their point of view/College of Education and Sports Sciences/University of Baghdad/Al-Jadriyah. The researchers used descriptive description in the comprehensive research procedures, an appropriate methodology in achieving the research objectives, sufficient for interpretations, how important is the academic teacher’s knowledge of teaching methods for student learning, what are the roles that the learners have acquired from the academic teacher. The scale of importance and horror consists of 15 items. The research population includes female students of t

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Effect of Sulfur on Characterization of AgInSe<sub>1.8</sub>S<sub>0.2</sub> Thin Film and n-AgInSe<sub>1.8</sub>S<sub>0.2</sub> / p-Si Solar Cell
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Abstract Ternary Silver Indium selenide Sulfur AgInSe1.8S0.2 in pure form and with a 0.2 ratio of Sulfur were fabricated via thermal evaporation under vacuum 3*10-6 torr on glasses substrates with a thickness of (550) nm. These films were investigated to understand their structural, optical, and Hall Characteristics. X-ray diffraction analysis was employed to examine the impact of varying Sulfur ratios on the structural properties. The results revealed that the AgInSe1.8S0.2 thin films in their pure form and with a 0.2 Sulfur ratio, both at room temperature and after annealing at 500 K, exhibited a polycrystalline nature with a tetragonal structure and a predominant orientation along the (112) plane, indicating an enhanced de

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Analysis of the symbolic images in the work of Mexican theater of: "all cats are brown," the writer Carlos Fuentes and "Palinuro on the stairs," the writer Fernando del Paso
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 This article briefly analyzing contemporary works appeared in theater writer from Latin America, which comes within the theme of "power." Latin American Literature, such as two-way extremely clear: the vanguard of social and attention, have arrived at certain moments to some extent be regarded as a two-way rival. That desire to participate in the revolution of expression and artistic significance, has appeared evident in the literature of Latin America in the late nineteenth century and ended in the third decade of the twentieth century. The writers that stage would prefer not to serve the objectives of the revolution of Arts own but the objectives of social and political revolution that stimulate the world. These acts were issued

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