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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of knowledge management in achieving outstanding university performance (Applied study in the Faculty of Management and Economics / University of Kufa)
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The research aims to determine the role of knowledge management to measure performance on a sample of faculties of Administration and Economics the University of Kufa, and to achieve this goal through a researcher from the theoretical literature and research and studies related to the construction of the scheme shows the hypothetical relationship between the variables, which was adopted by the independent variable knowledge management, distributed four variables are: (knowledge generation, knowledge storage, knowledge dissemination, the application of knowledge), as well as four variables representing the variables adopted for the performance of the university are:
(to reduce costs and increase profits, improve quality, scie

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 19 2021
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
ACCUMULATION OF SOME HEAVY METALS IN LARVAE OF CONTRACAECUM SP. AND THEIR HOST TIGRIS CATFISH SILURUS TRIOSTEGUS HECKEL, 1843 IN BAGHDAD, IRAQ
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This study was achieved to investigate the accumulation of some heavy metals included: Cadmium, Lead and Nickel in the tissues (gill, intestine, liver, muscles and skin) of Silurus triostegus Heckel, 1843 (Siluriformes, Siluridae) and its larval stage of the nematode Contracaecum sp. (Rhabditida, Anisakidae). As well as to assess the infection patterns of Contracaecum among S. triostegus specimens which were purchased fresh from the local market in Baghdad. One hundred and nine nematodes specimens in larval stage were recovered from the fish host; the overall prevalence of Contracaecum sp. was 38.6%. The sex of the host was not significantly (P ˃ 0.05) associated with the infection of this nematode.
Results showed that the overall me

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics (ijp)
Study the Effect of Graphene on the Contact Angle, Water Absorption and Thermal Stability ( TGA ,DSC) for Blend (Epoxy & Repcoat ZR)
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In this study, polymeric coating was developed by incorporating nano graphene in the polymer blend with applications to oil storage tanks. The oil storage tanks samples were brought from the oil Pipeline Company / Doura refinery in Baghdad. The coating polymer was formed with a blend (epoxy resin and repcoat ZR). The proportion of mixing the mixture was 3:1:1 epoxy resin 21.06 gm: repcoat ZR 10.53 gm: hardener 10.53 gm. The blend/graphene was prepared using in stui-polymerization method with different weight percentage 1, 3, 5, and 7 wt % added to blend. The resulting solution was put in a glass tube on a magnetic stirrer for one hour at a temperature of 40 °C. The result of contact angle and water absorption the best ratio of 3wt

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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Simulation of 3D- Flow Structure and Heat Transfer for Longitudinal Riblet Upstream of Leading Edge Endwall Junction of Nozzle Guide Vane
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The simulation have been made for  3D flow structure and heat  transfer with and without

longitudinal riblet upstream of leading edge vane endwall junction of first stage nozzle guide vane .The research explores concept of weakening the secondary flows and reducing their harmful effects.Numerical investigation involved examination of the secondary flows ,velocity and heat transfer rates by solving the governing equations (continuity, Navier -stokes and energy equations ) using the known package FLUENT version (12.1).The governing equations were solved for three dimentional, turbulent flowe, incompressible with an appropriate turbulent model (k-ω,SST) .The numerical solution was carried out for 25 mode

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of organizational learning in building intellectual capital in public organizations: comparative research between the universities of Baghdad and al-Mustansiriya
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   Organizational learning is one of the most important means of human resource development in organizations, but most of the organizations, especially public ones do not realize the importance of organizational learning enough, and estimated his role accurately in building intellectual capital, the resource competitive importantly for organizations of the third millennium and who suffers is other end of lack of understanding of its meaning and how to prove its presence and measured in public organizations, so there is the need for this research, which aims to investigate the effect of organizational learning its processes (knowledge acquisition, Information transfer, Interpreting the information, Organizational me

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 21 2024
Journal Name
Biomedicine
Detection of the effect of synthetic siRNA on efflux pump MexA gene expression and antibiotic resistance in clinical isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa
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Introduction and Aim: Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a nosocomial infection with an ability to develop high levels of antibiotic resistance. The efflux pump system is one of the mechanisms that is linked to multidrug resistance in P. aeruginosa. In this study, we employed siRNA loaded on gold nanoparticles against the MexA efflux pump gene to decrease the MexA gene expression in P. aeruginosa and estimated antibiotic resistance after gene silencing.   Materials and Methods: This study examined four strains of P. aeruginosa isolated from patients in various hospitals in Baghdad. Bacteria isolated were identified by biochemical tests and Vitek compact 2 system.  Single-stranded siRNA (33bp) designed in this study was loaded onto gold

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 05 2026
Journal Name
Plos Global Public Health
Exploring stakeholder perceptions of peer support initiatives in the management of diabetes in low- and middle-income countries: An online survey study
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Peer support is an effective strategy to promote self-management behaviors and improve well-being in those with cardiometabolic disease, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). There is limited knowledge about stakeholder perceptions regarding peer support programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study assessed stakeholders’ awareness and understanding of peer support initiatives for T2DM, and explored their perceived barriers and readiness for implementation. A cross-sectional, self-administered online survey with branching logic was distributed to stakeholders across macro- (health policy), meso (tertiary hospital), and micro (community) levels of LMIC healthcare systems from June 1 to December 15, 2023. Quan

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Future of the Russian- Ukrainian War and the Extent of its Reflection on the Security of Eastern European Countries after 2022
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Wars represent one of the most serious threats to the world order; It is considered a violation of international laws and norms, and humanitarian principles. From this point comes the study of the importance of the topic entitled (The Future of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the extent of its Reflection on the security of Eastern European countries after the year 2022). This study is based on reviewing future possibilities (scenarios) of war. The Russian-Ukrainian war, which was launched by the Russian government led by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2022, is still ongoing at the time of writing this research. This chapter includes three possibilities (scenarios). The first possibility deals with the development of the war t

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Arthroscopic micro fracture and intra articular whole bone marrow injection for the treatment of articular cartilage lesions in the knee joint. Authors
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Abstract Background: Articular cartilage lesions in the knee joint are frequently seen,its treatment represents a challenge for orthopedic surgeons especially in young age patients and if left untreated,then they can progress to advanced osteoarthritis that may affect the functional status of the patients.Many treatment modalities had developed for these lesions, in the current study arthroscopic micro fracture plus intra articular whole bone marrow(WBM) injection was used as modality of treating these lesions. Objectives: to assess the effectiveness of arthroscopic micro fracture plus WBM intra articular injection as a treatment modality for knee articular cartilage lesions. Patients and Methods : a prospective experimental study was perf

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Business Process Re-engineering and its Role of Achieving Competitive Advantage: An application study in the State Company of Vegetable Oil Industry
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The business process re-engineering is one of the popular concepts at this time because its provide a radical solution for the problems that companies faces. This method appeared because the changes of competition and costumers 'desires at the two last decades. The markets become wider because of the globalization so the companies must change its way to stay a life.

        The research aim is to concentrate on the  BPR  because it's a  philosophy aims to re-organize the company's business process to achieve the competitive advantage, the research also aims to a plicate  the BPR using cost management technique  in the State Company of Vegetable Oils Industry.

&nb

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