This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
Endometriosis is a painful disease that affects around 5% of women of reproductive age. In endometriosis, ectopic endometrial cells or seeded endometrial debris grow in abnormal locations including the peritoneal cavity. Common manifestations of endometriosis include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, chronic pelvic pain and often infertility and symptomatic relief or surgical removal are mainstays of treatment. Endometriosis both promotes and responds to estrogen imbalance, leading to intestinal bacterial estrobolome dysregulation and a subsequent induction of inflammation.
In the current study, we investigated the linkage be
In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of a prey-predator system incorporating infectious disease in the prey has been proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that the predator preys upon the nonrefugees prey only according to the modified Holling type-II functional response. There is a harvesting process from the predator. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in addition to their bounded are discussed. The stability analysis of the model around all possible equilibrium points is investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation analysis in view of the Sotomayor theorem is carried out. Numerical simulation has been applied to investigate the global dynamics and specify the effect
... Show MoreIn this work, electron number density calculated using Matlab program code with the writing algorithm of the program. Electron density was calculated using Anisimov model in a vacuum environment. The effect of spatial coordinates on the electron density was investigated in this study. It was found that the Z axis distance direction affects the electron number density (ne). There are many processes such as excitation; ionization and recombination within the plasma that possible affect the density of electrons. The results show that as Z axis distance increases electron number density decreases because of the recombination of electrons and ions at large distances from the target and the loss of thermal energy of the electrons in
... Show MorePost-structural critical studies highlighted the importance of studying the texts surrounding the text as an important part in the process of receiving and understanding texts, and although this topic was dealt with by the ancient Arabs and Europeans, interest in it appeared clearly after the appearance of Gerard Genet's book (SEUILS), which separated it Text Thresholds. Or what he called paratexte, and dealt with them with interest as he reads them on books. With the development of semiotic studies, interest in paratexte studies began in a broader way and in various literary and non-literary texts, including journalistic texts. And since specialized magazines are one of the press releases that enjoy their privacy in terms of topics and
... Show MoreGiven that the Crimean and Congo hemorrhagic fever is one of the deadly viral diseases that occur seasonally due to the activity of the carrier “tick,” studying and developing a mathematical model simulating this illness are crucial. Due to the delay in the disease’s incubation time in the sick individual, the paper involved the development of a mathematical model modeling the transmission of the disease from the carrier to humans and its spread among them. The major objective is to comprehend the dynamics of illness transmission so that it may be controlled, as well as how time delay affects this. The discussion of every one of the solution’s qualitative attributes is included. According to the established basic reproductio
... Show MoreSubstantial research has been performed on Building Information Modeling (BIM) in various topics, for instance, the use and benefit of BIM in design, construction, sustainable environment building, and Facility assets over the past several years. Although there are various studies on these topics, Building Information Modeling (BIM) awareness through facilities management is still relatively poor. The researcher's interest is increased in BIM study is based heavily upon the perception that it can facilitate the exchange and reuse of information during various project phases. This property and others can be used in the Iraqi Construction industry to motivate the government to eliminate the change resistance to use innovat
... Show MoreSemiotics has been through wide experiences in various human sciences, especially in the fields of poetry, novel and myths. But its interest in the theatre and drama was much less and unique despite the richness of the theatrical connection as it is a probable field for the semiotic investigation which may require the semiotic approach in dealing with the theatrical and dramatic show during the two processes of: structural construction and deconstruction starting from a set of overlapping and interconnected texts inside the show, which can be limited in the text, then it would be difficult to semiotically cover all these complex and tricky texts. The theatre in its structural and aesthetic construction is c
... Show MoreWith increased climate change pressures likely to influence harmful algal blooms, exposure to microcystin, a known hepatotoxin and a byproduct of cyanobacterial blooms can be a risk factor for NAFLD associated comorbidities. Using both
The goal of the extant revision was to explore the influence of caffeic acid (CA) extracted from Arctium lappa L. on lipid profile and histology of aorta in rats . Analytical study demonstrated a high percentage of both chlorogenic and caffeic acid in the 80 % methanol extract of the aerial parts (leaves and stems) of Arctium lappa L. from the family Asteraceace. Hypolipidemic activity of caffeic acid was studied against cholesterol induced hypercholesterolemia in Wistar albino rats for thirty days. Rats were separated into normal group (A), hypercholesterolemic positive controller group (B). While, the rest three groups (C, D and E) attended as hypercholesterol
... Show MoreThe research aims to find the impact of a proposed strategy according to the Luria model on realistic thinking among fifth-class scientific students and their achievement in mathematics. To achieve it, the experimental research method and the quasi-experimental design were used for two equal groups, one of them is a control group taught in traditional way and the other is an experimental one taught according to strategy based on Luria model. The research community represents the students of the fifth scientific class from the General Directorate of Education of Karkh First. The research sample (40) students were deliberately chosen and distributed equally between the two groups after making sure that they were equals in their previo
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