This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
Abstract:
The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of
... Show MoreThis study relates to the estimation of a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables ( ) are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method and Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator .
That is , parameters will be estim
... Show MoreThe nucleon momentum distributions (NMD) and elastic electron scattering form factors of the ground state for some 1f-2p-shell nuclei, such as 58Ni, 60Ni, 62Ni, and 64Ni
isotopes have been calculated in the framework of the coherent fluctuation model (CFM) and expressed in terms of the weight function lf(x)l2 . The weight function (fluctuation function) has been related to the nucleon density distribution (NDD) of the nuclei and determined from the theory and experiment. The NDD is derived from a simple method based on the use of the single particle wave functions of the harmonic oscillator potential and the occupation numbers of the states. The feature of the l
The propaganda war is one of the most dangerous weapons used in various conditions of war and peace within any intellectual, political or military conflict to be targeted by multiple social groups and their effects on the intellectuals to change the viewpoints at the local and global level, including the use of technical treatment of the audio and visual medium, The impact of the psychological dimensions of the arms in the confrontation and spread terror in the ranks of the enemies and in the forefront of what Iraq faces in its battle against the And the use of it as a propaganda content contributes to the development of the spirit of tranquility and tranquility in the hearts of Iraqis and the return of the right to the owners “th
... Show MoreThe aim of the study is to reveal the effect of the constructivist learning Model on the achievement and reflective thinking of the fifth grade literary Preparatory students in History subject. A random sample was chosen which consisted of 64 students divided into experimental and control groups, each group consisted of 32 students. The experimental group was taught via the constructivist learning model, and the control group was taught via the traditional method. The experiment was lasted for Eight weeks, each week taught two lessons. The researcher adopted the experimental design with partial control. The two groups were equalized statistically. The researcher used two instruments, the achievement test and the reflective thinking test.
... Show MoreThe aim of the study is to reveal the effect of the constructivist learning Model on the achievement and reflective thinking of the fifth grade literary Preparatory students in History subject. A random sample was chosen which consisted of 64 students divided into experimental and control groups, each group consisted of 32 students. The experimental group was taught via the constructivist learning model, and the control group was taught via the traditional method. The experiment was lasted for Eight weeks, each week taught two lessons. The researcher adopted the experimental design with partial control. The two groups were equalized statistically. The researcher used two instruments, the achievement test and the reflective thinking test.
... Show MoreAjloun Governorate is considered the smallest governorate in Jordan in terms of area, and its population density rises to 472.2 people/ km2 and is distributed among five municipalities. The Al-Shafa municipality is one of these municipalities. Al-Shafa is rich in its natural and human resources, and the first municipal council was established in it in 2001.
This study seeks to achieve the following general objective: inventory the natural and human resources that Al-Shafa enjoys, and highlight the role of Al-Shafa municipality in achieving and settling sustainable development for the local community. Certain content, which are: the comprehensive approach to geographical reality, the descriptive
... Show MorePopulation density represents an important indicator for determining the growth of the size of urban areas. Population density has a direct impact on the quality of life, and its excessive rise may lead to the deterioration of basic service facilities. The problem of the research is that the increase in the total population densities of the residential neighborhood may reflect negatively on the nature of the services provided to the residents in these shops, and thus the failure to achieve sustainability in the residential locality. The research assumes that the increase in population densities negatively affects the achievement of sustainability in the residential neighborhood.
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The absence of ecological perception in the local urbanization resulted in the lack of a clear conception of achieving sustainability in its simplest form in the urban reality and in the city of Baghdad in particular. The research assumes the possibility of achieving urban sustainability in Iraqi cities by applying the cities for the most effective methods to implemented ecological solutions and introducing appropriate urban planning tools and improve the living environment. The research focuses on the ability to define some aspects to achieve a sustainable local urban identity from global experiences. This was performed by proposing a scheduled theoretical framework, through which th
Abstract: Stars whose initial masses are between (0.89 - 8.0) M☉ go through an Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phase at the end of their life. Which have been evolved from the main sequence phase through Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). The calculations were done by adopted Synthetic Model showed the following results: 1- Mass loss on the AGB phase consists of two phases for period (P <500) days and for (P>500) days; 2- the mass loss rate exponentially increases with the pulsation periods; 3- The expansion velocity VAGB for our stars are calculated according to the three assumptions; 4- the terminal velocity depends on several factors likes metallicity and luminosity. The calculations indicated that a super wind phase (S.W) developed on the A
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