This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
To damp the low-frequency oscillations which occurred due to the disturbances in the electrical power system, the generators are equipped with Power System Stabilizer (PSS) that provide supplementary feedback stabilizing signals. The low-frequency oscillations in power system are classified as local mode oscillations, intra-area mode oscillation, and interarea mode oscillations. Double input multiband Power system stabilizers (PSSs) were used to damp out low-frequency oscillations in power system. Among dual-input PSSs, PSS4B offers superior transient performance. Power system simulator for engineering (PSS/E) software was adopted to test and evaluate the dynamic performance of PSS4B model on Iraqi national grid. The results showed
... Show MoreAn accurate assessment of the pipes’ conditions is required for effective management of the trunk sewers. In this paper the semi-Markov model was developed and tested using the sewer dataset from the Zublin trunk sewer in Baghdad, Iraq, in order to evaluate the future performance of the sewer. For the development of this model the cumulative waiting time distribution of sewers was used in each condition that was derived directly from the sewer condition class and age data. Results showed that the semi-Markov model was inconsistent with the data by adopting ( 2 test) and also, showed that the error in prediction is due to lack of data on the sewer waiting times at each condition state which can be solved by using successive conditi
... Show MoreImaging by Ultrasound (US) is an accurate and useful modality for the assessment of gestational age (GA), estimation fetal weight, and monitoring the fetal growth during pregnancy, is a routine part of prenatal care, and that can greatly impact obstetric management. Estimation of GA is important in obstetric care, making appropriate management decisions requires accurate appraisal of GA. Accurate GA estimation may assist obstetricians in appropriately counseling women who are at risk of a preterm delivery about likely neonatal outcomes, and it is essential in the evaluation of the fetal growth and detection of intrauterine growth restriction. There are many formulas are used to estimate fetal GA in the world, but it's not specify fo
... Show MoreThe objective of this article is to delve into the intricate dynamics of marriage relationships, exploring the impact of emotions such as fear, love, financial considerations and likability. In our investigation, we adopt a perspective that acknowledges the nonlinear nature of interactions among individuals. Diverging from certain prior studies, we propose that the fear element within the context of marriage is not a singular, isolated factor but rather a manifestation resulting from the amalgamation of numerous social issues. This, in turn, contributes to the emergence of strained and unsuccessful relationships. Unlike conventional approaches, we extensively examine the conditions essential for the existence of all socially signifi
... Show MoreAn analytical model in the form of a hyperbolic function has been suggested for the axial potential distribution of an electrostatic einzel lens. With the aid of this hyperbolic model the relative optical parameters have been computed and investigated in detail as a function of the electrodes voltage ratio for various trajectories of an accelerated charged-particles beam. The electrodes voltage ratio covered a wide range where the lens may be operated at accelerating and decelerating modes. The results have shown that the proposed hyperbolic field has the advantages of producing low aberrations under various magnification conditions and operational modes. The electrodes profile and their three-dimensional diagram have been determined whi
... Show MoreThe issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the proposed LAD-Atan estimator
... Show MoreIn this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method
The issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the p
... Show More