This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
Fresh vegetables are an important part of a healthy diet. The consumption of raw vegetables without cooking or good washing can be a major rout of transmission to the parasitic infection. The goal of this study was to determine the intestinal parasitic contamination of fresh vegetables from vegetables sales markets in Baghdad province during the different above months of the year. A total of 303 samples of different vegetables were randomly selected from three wholesale markets distributed through different regions in Baghdad (East, West and South) and then were examined by a floatation method. The present study showed that the collected vegetables were contaminated with 12 species of intestinal parasites, and the total percentage of contam
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model is one of the oldest and most common of the regression models, and it is known as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between a dependent random variable and explanatory random variables. Several methods are used to estimate this model, including the bootstrap method, which is one of the estimation methods that depend on the principle of sampling with return, and is represented by a sample reshaping that includes (n) of the elements drawn by randomly returning from (N) from the original data, It is a computational method used to determine the measure of accuracy to estimate the statistics, and for this reason, this method was used to find more accurate estimates. The ma
... Show MoreOxazepine [1] is non – nomologous seven –member ring that contain two netroatoms (oxygen and nitrogen ). Meanwhile diazepine [2] contains to nitrogen atoms in seven – member ring.
Diazepam (valium) [3] is used to relive anxiety tension associated with anxiety disorder and muscle spasms (1, 2, 3
... Show MoreThe reaction paths of the C-C and C-H bond cleavage in the anthracene and phenanthrene aromatic molecules are studied by applying the ab-initio DFT method. It is found that the C-C bond cleavage proceeds via a singlet aromatic transition state, compelled through a disrotatoric ring opening reaction. A suprafacial H atom shift follows the transition state, leading to the formation of a methylene -CH2 and an acetylenic or allenic moiety. The calculated activation energies for anthracene range from 158.81-208.90 kcal/mol and the reaction energies from 96.106-156.976 kcal/mol. For phenanthrene, the energy values are 157.39-202.34 kcal/mol and 62.639-182.423 kcal/mol, respectively. For the C-H cleavage reactions, the calculated reaction energies
... Show MoreThe study was conducted to determine the effect Toxoplasma gondii and the efficacy of azithromycin and garlic tablets on the treatment of acute murine toxoplasmosis and observe the histopathological changes due to infection. 60 Albino mice were divided into six groups, and their survival rate, pathology, bioassay trial and immunofluorescence were observed. Results revealed that azithromycin (250 mg/kg/day) given to infected mice increased the survival rate (90% on day 7 PI) and decreased the histopathological changes when compared with the control groups. Garlic tablets (500 mg/kg/day) had lesser effect on infected mice, and the survival rate (40% at days 6 and 7 PI) was lower than the groups treated with azithromycin. The group treated wit
... Show MoreIntroduction: Candida spp. has become increasingly resistant to antifungal drugs, with elevated MIC levels causing a negative medical impact and increasing the number of patients at risk of candidiasis. According to the CDC, about 7% of Candida blood samples show reduced susceptibility to fluconazole. Monitoring the antifungal resistance profile of Candida spp. is vital, as non-Albicans species may limit treatment options. Objective: Evaluate the antifungal effectiveness against clinical Candida spp. isolates of six antifungals: amphotericin B, fluconazole, voriconazole, itraconazole, caspofungin, and 5-fluorocytosine. Methods: 100 samples were collected from various clinical samples at the National Centre of Teaching Laboratories
... Show MoreThe goal of this work is to check the presence of PNS (photon number splitting) attack in quantum cryptography system based on BB84 protocol, and to get a maximum secure key length as possible. This was achieved by randomly interleaving decoy states with mean photon numbers of 5.38, 1.588 and 0.48 between the signal states with mean photon numbers of 2.69, 0.794 and 0.24. The average length for a secure key obtained from our system discarding the cases with Eavesdropping was equal to 125 with 20 % decoy states and 82 with 50% decoy states for mean photon number of 0.794 for signal states and 1.588 for decoy states.
The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange r
... Show MoreTheresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
... Show MoreThe electron correlation for inter-shells (1s 2p), (1s 3p) and (1s 3d) was described by the inter-particle radial distribution function f(r12). It was evaluated for Li-atom in the different excited states (1s2 2p), (1s2 3p) and (1s2 3d) using Hartree-Fock approximation (HF). The inter particle expectation values for these shells were also evaluated. The calculations were performed using Mathcad 14 program.