This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
The adopted method in the teaching of history is conservation and indoctrination in all grades, and this will lead to a lack of students interact with teachers in the course of the lesson, and poor use of teachers to questions that raise students' thinking during the lesson, which leads to a lack of interest in the topic of the lesson and wasting opportunities contribution making it the teacher at the center of the educational process, and to provide arrogating the researcher to contribute to teaching style with the belief that the use of this method of teaching could lead to overcome the difficulties and problems faced by the teaching material.
And there are educational complexes integrated approac
... Show MoreThis research set to indicate the role of the opportunity cost in the overall economic development (human and social development) by selecting the most appropriate alternative for the growth of the country in exchange for sacrificing profit limits to achieve this growth and development of the country, especially in the present circumstances of the country and after studying the reality of the economic case for him, as the problem lies with don't selecting the best alternative that enhances the gross domestic product, which extends to promote overall economic development and revive the industrial and agricultural sectors, productivity is more like Impotent, versus sacrifice alternative consumption may bring more financially lucrative than
... Show MoreDecision-makers in each country work to define a list of internal and external interests, goals and threats to their countries according to the nature of their awareness of these interests, goals and threats.
Hence, Iraq is not an exception to this rule, and the process of evaluating its interests and the objectives of its foreign policy is subject to the pattern of awareness of decision-makers and the influencing forces in defining its basic interests, which often witness some kind of difference in defining them, evaluating their importance and determining the size of the threats they face. And among these interests and threats that have witnessed a difference in the assessment of their
... Show MoreTechnology is one of the important influences in the development of professions in general and the profession of tax auditing and examination in particular because of the importance of this section in the General Tax Authority because of the service it provides is auditing the financial accounts provided to the department by the taxpayers to ensure the correctness of revenue and the achievement of tax justice. Where the research aims at the importance of using electronic accounting information systems in developing the work of the Tax Audit and Examination Department, to reduce the difficulties that the department may be using using manual systems, which is the need for time and effort to accomplish it, and to develop methods and procedu
... Show MoreThe variety of ideas and freedom of expression among the authors who are looking for everything new that serves the goals of musical and aesthetic expression, which calls for the use of traditional musical instruments with the great composition of musical instruments known as the orchestra represents a great challenge in several aspects. The incompetence of some of these instruments or limited capabilities or its costly method of performance sometimes forbids its use permanently in this great composition. It was necessary to have some problems facing the composer and the player on the one hand and the recipient on the other hand, who must be looking for perfection. Among those instruments that are used regularly in the works of the orche
... Show MoreThe behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.
This research reviews the aesthetic variables that were founded according to (theatrical rehearsal) as one of the most important pillars on which the theatrical process is based, because of its necessity in developing theatrical art on several levels that helped the theatrical director in organizing his work, and this became clear through the research chapters represented in the first chapter (methodological framework) and the second chapter, which consisted of the first topic (the duality of watching / rehearsal) and the second topic (the applications of theatrical rehearsal in theatrical experiences), all the way to the third chapter (research procedures), which included the analysis of theatrical rehearsals (sharing on life), and the
... Show MoreA seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus
... Show MoreBackground: Osteoarthritis is a chronic pathology of the joints causing disability and morbidity. Diacerein is a disease-modifying agent indicated for osteoarthritis management with enhanced performance and have much lower side effects profile than conventional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Oral administration of Diacerein is associated with a laxative effect, thus causing treatment discontinuation. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the activity of Diacerein novasome-based transdermal gel compared with standard oral treatment in the management of induced osteoarthritis in a rat model. Materials and methods: A single intra-articular injection of monosodium iodoacetate was administered to the left knee joint, resulting in the develop
... Show MoreThe current paper proposes a new estimator for the linear regression model parameters under Big Data circumstances. From the diversity of Big Data variables comes many challenges that can be interesting to the researchers who try their best to find new and novel methods to estimate the parameters of linear regression model. Data has been collected by Central Statistical Organization IRAQ, and the child labor in Iraq has been chosen as data. Child labor is the most vital phenomena that both society and education are suffering from and it affects the future of our next generation. Two methods have been selected to estimate the parameter
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