Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to be (n=51) to face the limitation of the data. After that was a comprehensive analysis taking into account the size of the new sample.
In this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.
Keywords: Using Markov chains
As is known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.
We have been address the problem of Strongly seasonal commodities in calculating (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.
We have used an actual data for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal&nbs
... Show MoreThe research addresses the role of the digital economy in the growth of the Iraqi economy during the period from 2010 to 2022. The research is based on the hypothesis that the digital economy has become one of the primary growth drivers worldwide and has a close relationship with economic development. Therefore, the digital transformation in Iraq can accelerate bridging developmental gaps with other countries.
It has become evident that the Iraqi economy suffers from structural imbalances for various reasons, hindering economic growth. These reasons include political and economic factors, as well as the absence of a well-thought-out policy to promote the agricultural sector, which is considered one of the fundamental sectors capa
... Show MoreThe study aims to clarify the impact of growth in the industrial sector on economic growth in the Iraqi economics according to the methodology of Kaldor for (2017-2030) , taking into consideration the effect of the accumulation of capital in the calculation of growth rates in the economy through productivity estimate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to growth in the economy, which is why the study assumes a formula to comply with the laws of Kaldor growth models developed requirements. This study is the most important to find out the development of the laws of Kaldor among Arabic studies, especially the first and third, so that the relationship between the growth of industrial production and economic growth as represented
... Show MoreThis century is witnessing changes in various fields,which have become a challenge to the enterprises in the contemporary business environment, the most important of which is the importance of measurement and disclosure of the role of knowledge capital in the transition to the knowledge economy, which is no longer the land and labor and physical capital resources the basic. Knowledge-based capital has emerged that provides the enterprise with an area of excellence and enhances its position to achieve competitive advantage. The research tackled the concept, objectives, components and importance of knowledge capital, which is fundamental in knowledge management, creating value added and enhancing competitiveness, as well as an
... Show Moreأن السياسة النقدية في العراق لم تشهد تحسناً كبيراً في دورها المطلوب
منها، وهذا يعود الى جملة من التغيرات على أدائها ودورها في التأثير على المتغيرات الأقتصادية المهمة، اذ حصلت ظروف صعبة على المستوى السياسي والأقتصادي اسهمت في أضعاف دورها في العراق. فالحروب العسكرية الثلاثة في وقت قياسي دمرت البنى التحتية للأقتصاد العراقي، وأخرت عملية التنمية الأقتصادية والبشرية لعدة عقود بسبب الأستنزاف الكبير للمو
Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.
Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t
... Show MoreTransportation Sector classified as one of the services sectors which is without the production activities cannot be complete its rule. Is act asmoving actions which operate at production and non production goals for the organization and individuals insides the country and with others, that is why this sector act as one of the main which is occupied an important status on the way the economic activities and on the level of the economic institutions the transportation work on transforming all the commodities and products from productions locations to consumption location then its effect the productivity process and create the location utility and on the level of economic it considered as one of the economic supportive structure an
... Show MoreSustainable development is launched through the interaction between the economy and natural resources and preserving them from exhaustion as well as the efficient management of natural and social resources and includes a diversified economic condition and thus is the focus of attention to the development of economic structures, which is intended to improve the level of human well-being by increasing its share in the necessary goods and services and their relationship With economic growth, which is the most important driver of economic transformation, because it reflects the ability of society and increasing its productive capabilities and investing in the optimal way Although the Iraqi economy is considered one of the diversified
... Show MoreAbstract
The logistic regression model is one of the nonlinear models that aims at obtaining highly efficient capabilities, It also the researcher an idea of the effect of the explanatory variable on the binary response variable. &nb
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