This research examines the relationship between dinar deposits and U.S. dollar payments at the Central Bank of Iraq using monthly data for the period 2016–2025. The ARDL model, the GRU neural network, and a hybrid ARDL–GRU model are applied. The results show that dollar payments are stationary at level, while dinar deposits become stationary after first differencing, with a significant positive long-run cointegrating relationship. The linear ARDL model has limited ability to capture sudden shocks, whereas the hybrid ARDL–GRU model achieves superior forecasting performance both in-sample and out-of-sample. The findings confirm the Central Bank of Iraq’s efficiency in managing domestic and foreign liquidity and maintaining market stability, and provide three-month-ahead forecasts for dollar payments. The research recommends adopting hybrid models, adding supporting economic variables, and using larger sample sizes to improve forecasting accuracy and support monetary policy decisions.
In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.
In his life, a person engages in different types of verbal and actual dispositions that result in various effects, some of which are necessary and not valid, such as selling, and some are not necessary for one of the two contracting parties, such as a mortgage or both, such as lending and agency. However, there are some actions that are sometimes necessary and not necessary at other times, such as a gift that indicates in its simplest sense. Owning money for another without compensation, it is one of the doors of benevolence and benevolence, and it is one of the attributes of perfection with which God, may He be glorified and exalted be He, described Himself. - And if this analogy is the difference - and distanced himself from greed, the
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Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
... Show MoreAn epidemiological study in Al-Mahmmodiya (50 km south Baghdad) to investigate a possible vector of Leishmaniasis were applied .This region is considered as a foci of Leishmaniasisaccording to the health association statistics. CDC light traps were used to collect the insects nightly. Insects were collected by Indoor application as human dwellings and animal shelters and Outdoor application as rodent's barrows and field trees. Sand flies were transported to the laboratory, isolated and identified according to the identification keys in Tropical Biological Researches Unit at the Collage of Science / University of Baghdad. Must of the collected sand flies were belonging to three species PhlebotomuspapatasiScopoli(45%), PhlebotomusalexandriSin
... Show MoreMoment invariants have wide applications in image recognition since they were proposed.
Abstract:
Under the state scenario, fiscal policy will not be able to use the oil surpluses optimally and economically and society, as long as these surpluses are not directed by public expenditure towards new productive investments and by following the path of fiscal policy after one year 2003 and until 2013 we note that it is based on the method of spending (excessive) consumption, and did not take any action towards the budget deficit planned at the beginning of the fiscal year, and the actual surplus at the end of the fiscal year, which represents the highest expenditure in the budget, Salaries and wages of workers in various government agencies with the expansion of spending on the security side.&n
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Praise be to Allah, the Lord of the Worlds, the best prayer and the best prayer, on our master Muhammad, and on his pure God, and his companions and the faithful, and who followed them by charity to the day of religion. This relationship between emphasis, is a sincere, and this harmony, such as the relationship between water, and the green, but it is good, but, with greenery, it is better, and as well as alone, is a beautiful view, but the most beautiful, with the most beautiful. From here he was starting on myself in writing the fundamentalist research of jurisprudence, to show the depth of this interconnection. The doctrine as a new term, then the taj al-Din al-Suobki came after three centuries, and a
... Show MoreThe research tacklets the role of risks arising from the excessive use of derivative contracts for trading in financial crises, including the recent global financial crisis in (2008) which is known the mortgage crisis.
In order to prove the hypothesis of the research, the risk index of derivative contracts has been chosed as expressed in the measure of (value at risk) to be the main field for testing the hypothesis of research. The duration of the contract has been also chased for (15) years between the years (2001- 2015), the period preceding the global financial crisis, while the second represents the period of time that followed. The research reached a number of conclusions, bu
... Show MoreGoal of research is to investigate the impact of the use of effective learning model in the collection of the fourth grade students/Department of physics in the material educational methods and the development of critical thinking .to teach this goal has been formulated hypothesis cefereeten zero subsidiary of the second hypothesis .To investigate the research hypothesis were selected sample of fourth-grade students of the department of physics at the univers
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