This research examines the relationship between dinar deposits and U.S. dollar payments at the Central Bank of Iraq using monthly data for the period 2016–2025. The ARDL model, the GRU neural network, and a hybrid ARDL–GRU model are applied. The results show that dollar payments are stationary at level, while dinar deposits become stationary after first differencing, with a significant positive long-run cointegrating relationship. The linear ARDL model has limited ability to capture sudden shocks, whereas the hybrid ARDL–GRU model achieves superior forecasting performance both in-sample and out-of-sample. The findings confirm the Central Bank of Iraq’s efficiency in managing domestic and foreign liquidity and maintaining market stability, and provide three-month-ahead forecasts for dollar payments. The research recommends adopting hybrid models, adding supporting economic variables, and using larger sample sizes to improve forecasting accuracy and support monetary policy decisions.
This study aimed to analyze and measure the relationship between oil revenues and financial sustainability in Iraq, the study used the stylistic approach inductive and deductive approach. Accompanied by the use of quantitative and analytical style, which was based on two variables oil revenues and net general budget on annual data covered the period (1990-2013). Among the most important findings of the study contain the time-series variables study on the root of the unit and is not stable in the general level, and become stable after the use of mathematical processors to gain access to a stable by taking the first difference of natural Ogartm of the series. The way (Johnson) to a long-term relationship between oil revenues and ne
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Knowing the nature of the relationship in federal systems lies in studying the political, social, economic and cultural forces, for their role in laying the foundations and the federal system. No matter how important the pillars of that system are, and through this research, we will learn how the political elites were able to crystallize this unique system, until it became one of the political systems that some countries seek to copy and apply its experience.
There is no doubt that the advertisement picture and the written text play a key role in the formation of the language of the communicative discourse as the main pillars of the design of commercial advertising and the main entrance for the advertising message awareness... Hence the researcher chose the title of her research (Integrative Relationship between the Picture and the Written Text in the Printed Commercial Advertisement) starting from following questions: What is the relationship between the picture and the written text in the printed commercial declaration? Is there functional, aesthetic and interactive integration between them?
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Abstract
This research deals with Building A probabilistic Linear programming model representing, the operation of production in the Middle Refinery Company (Dura, Semawa, Najaif) Considering the demand of each product (Gasoline, Kerosene,Gas Oil, Fuel Oil ).are random variables ,follows certain probability distribution, which are testing by using Statistical programme (Easy fit), thes distribution are found to be Cauchy distribution ,Erlang distribution ,Pareto distribution ,Normal distribution ,and General Extreme value distribution . &
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The study aims to show the correlation between inflation rates and the volume of private sector deposits in Jordan on one hand, and Amman Stock Exchange index for the period of 1999-2017. The study used the “Vector Auto Regression” model. Different types of tests are used such as: The “Johansen Co integration” test of joint integration, “Granger causality” test, the “Analysis of Variance Decomposition”, and “Impulse response Function” test.
The results showed there is a positive-one-way causal effect from Amman Stock Exchange index to inflation. Also, a one-way causal effect that comes from Amman Stock Exchange index to the size of private sec
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The research aims to identify the magnitude of the impact of external debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco, and the importance of research lies in the role that external debt plays in addressing structural imbalances, if it is best disposed of according to well-studied economic plans by specialists in this regard, especially if these debts are directed with Other resources, as it helps pay the costs of these debts (debt servicing) that the external debt also raises the level of gross domestic product, and the research starts from the hypothesis that: There is an effect of foreign debt on the GDP in Morocco, has contributed in one way or another to The exacerbation of the external debt, which affected the m
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The paper aims to measure the impact of monetary policy on price stability , by testing the causal relationship between the money supply, inflation rate and the exchange rate , In order to prove that the inflation is a monetary phenomenon in the Iraqi economy , and that the exchange rate is controlled in the money supply , the money supply as an endogenous variable continued we found by using the standard tests to the existence of a single co-integration between the money supply and the rate of inflation and the money supply and the parallel exchange rate, This confirms the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables , It also confirmed the results of the vector error correctio
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became
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In this paper we use the Markov Switching model to investigate the link between the level of Iraqi inflation and its uncertainty; forth period 1980-2010 we measure inflation uncertainty as the variance of unanticipated inflation. The results ensure there are a negative effect of inflation level on inflation uncertainty and all so there are a positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation level.  
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Due to the importance of the relationship between the phenomenon of inflation and the exchange rate in the formulation of monetary policy in Iraq, the exchange rate plays a strategic role in limiting the inflation caused by the monetary expansion due to government spending, as a point of a view, the inefficiency of interest to achieve the monetary market balance and stability of the general level of prices as an overall goal of monetary policy in Iraq, the exchange rate has emerged as a brake on inflation in Iraq, as the research found that the monetary authority in the period 2003-2018 provided a methodical development in the formulation of monetary policy towards realizing the effects of inf
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