Preferred Language
Articles
/
lHj-SJ8BuRolNscLueGk
Using the Hybrid ARDL–GRU Model in Investigating the Dynamic Relationship between Dinar Deposits and US Dollar Payments at the Central Bank of Iraq
...Show More Authors

This research examines the relationship between dinar deposits and U.S. dollar payments at the Central Bank of Iraq using monthly data for the period 2016–2025. The ARDL model, the GRU neural network, and a hybrid ARDL–GRU model are applied. The results show that dollar payments are stationary at level, while dinar deposits become stationary after first differencing, with a significant positive long-run cointegrating relationship. The linear ARDL model has limited ability to capture sudden shocks, whereas the hybrid ARDL–GRU model achieves superior forecasting performance both in-sample and out-of-sample. The findings confirm the Central Bank of Iraq’s efficiency in managing domestic and foreign liquidity and maintaining market stability, and provide three-month-ahead forecasts for dollar payments. The research recommends adopting hybrid models, adding supporting economic variables, and using larger sample sizes to improve forecasting accuracy and support monetary policy decisions.

View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship between the central government and local administrations in the federal system: Experience the Iraqi model
...Show More Authors

   Increasingly, public organizations in the federal state are required to work together, as well as to work with others to achieve their objectives. In Iraq there are two levels of organizations, including federal and local, and these organizations have been forced to work for many years in an environment in which the responsibility for service delivery is shared between policy makers and service providers, and between local governments and the federal government. It is sometimes difficult to manage the relationship between these organizations (federal and local) and do not always provide the best possible outcome of this relationship. This paper reviews how to manage the relationship between local administrations and

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
...Show More Authors

Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jun 09 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The financial aid of the Central Bank of Iraq to the government and its reflection on indicators of banking stability/ Applied Research
...Show More Authors

The research aims to define the images of financial aid that it provides within their tasks (central banks to governments) and how it can affect the indicators of banking stability, as well as monitoring the levels of banking stability in the Iraqi economy through the indicators used by the Central Bank of Iraq, and the importance of research in banking stability lies in Iraq, because any decrease in the movement of the aggregate banking stability index will reflect negatively on the financial sector in Iraq. Therefore, the Central Bank sought to provide financial aid to the government through a group of components, some of which are represented by initiatives that contribute to revitalizing the national economy and the other hel

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
...Show More Authors

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Forecasting the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using Markov chains
...Show More Authors

Scopus (3)
Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analyzing of the Relationship between the Financial Development, Economic growth, and Poverty in Iraq with the Autoregressive Distributed lag Model framework for the period (1980-2010)
...Show More Authors

The developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
independence of the central banks with a focus on measuring the independence of the central bank of Jordan
...Show More Authors

The main topic of this study is central around the independence of Jordanian central bank and the extent of the effectiveness at the bank in leading the monetary policy without interferences or pressures from side of the government.  the degree of independence of Jordanian central bank was  based on the following based hypothesis following ,there is relationship between the independence of the central bank and the legislative and economical indices. the most important recommendations are degree of independence of the Jordan central bank 43.5% is a good one, but it possible to reach a higher degree than this one by to making some modification on the Jordanian central bank law and by the central bank should be more rigid

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The universal banking reality of the Industrial Bank through the causal relationship between the deposits of the Industrial Bank and the total loans granted - during the period (2004-2015)
...Show More Authors

Deposits with the Industrial Bank, together with loans received from others, are non-financial financial resources, which are sources of supply to the Industrial Bank of funds that allow the Bank to expand the granting of loans. The increases in this resource indicates that the bank is practicing comprehensive banking, which is consistent with the nature of the transformation of the banking system towards multiple businesses. Therefore, the research comes to highlight the causality of the trend between total deposits and total loans. And if the causality is found, is it one-way or two-way? How long is the impact?

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Exchange Rate of Iraqi Dinar between De facto Regime and De jure Regime in the Iraq during (2004-2012)
...Show More Authors

         The understanding exchange rate policy is fundamental in order to identify the mechanism by which works out macroeconomic, And the vital for macroeconomic analysis and empirical work to differentiate between the de facto regimes and de jure regimes, Where the proved surveys and studies issued by the international monetary fund that there is divergence between the de facto regime (Regime of exchange applied by the country actually) and between the de jure regime (Regime de jure through the documents and formal writings of officials of the central bank), And launched studies on the de facto regime (Being a the basis of evaluating monetary policy) Stabilized (peg-like)arrangements or

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Causal relationship between sugar prices, imported sun flower oil, crude oil prices and the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar
...Show More Authors

Abstract

The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate   in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref