Forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti

In this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da

The researchers have a special interest in studying  Markov  chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable  samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one  of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying  Maximum likelihood estimation  and Ordinary least squares  methods resulting

In many scientific fields, Bayesian models are commonly used in recent research. This research presents a new Bayesian model for estimating parameters and forecasting using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Posterior distributions are generated using the inverse gamma distribution and the multivariate normal distribution as prior distributions. The new method was used to investigate and summaries Bayesian statistics' posterior distribution. The theory and derivation of the posterior distribution are explained in detail in this paper. The proposed approach is applied to three simulation datasets of 100, 300, and 500 sample sizes. Also, the procedure was extended to the real dataset called the rock intensity dataset. The actual dataset is collecte

FG Mohammed, HM Al-Dabbas, Iraqi journal of science, 2018 - Cited by 6

This paper is concerned with pre-test single and double stage shrunken estimators for the mean (?) of normal distribution when a prior estimate (?0) of the actule value (?) is available, using specifying shrinkage weight factors ?(?) as well as pre-test region (R). Expressions for the Bias [B(?)], mean squared error [MSE(?)], Efficiency [EFF(?)] and Expected sample size [E(n/?)] of proposed estimators are derived. Numerical results and conclusions are drawn about selection different constants included in these expressions. Comparisons between suggested estimators, with respect to classical estimators in the sense of Bias and Relative Efficiency, are given. Furthermore, comparisons with the earlier existing works are drawn.

In this paper, the first integrals of Darboux type of the generalized Sprott ET9 chaotic system will be studied. This study showed that the system has no polynomial, rational, analytic and Darboux first integrals for any value of . All the Darboux polynomials for this system were derived together with its exponential factors. Using the weight homogenous polynomials helped us prove the process.

Azo dye ligand was produced by coupling the diazonium salt of 4aminoantipyrine with 2, 4-dimethylphenol. The structure of 1 azo compound was someone by elemental analyses, HNMR, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectroscopic mechanics. Metal complexes of nickel (II) and copper (II) have been performed and depicted. The formation of complexes has been identified by using flame atomic absorption, (C.H.N) Analysis, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectral process as well as, conductivity and magnetic properties quantifications. The nature of the complexes formed were studied succeed the mole ratio and continuous variation methods, Beer's law followed over a concentration 4 4 scope (1×10- - 3×10- M). High molar absorbtivity of the complex solutions were observed. Analytica