Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
إنّ التّأمّل في الدّراسات الأدبيّة النّقديّة الحديثة الّتي تنظر إلى النّصّ أنّه لوحة تتشكّل من مجموعة تداخلات نصّيّة سابقة للنصّ المُنتج أو مُعاصرة له، تدفع القارئ إلى الغوص في أعماق النّصوص وتحليلها والكشف عن الآليّات والإجراءات الّتي اعتمدت في إنتاجه، وإظهار الجماليّات الفنّيّة التي شكلت في مُجملها كائنا حيّا يُعبّر عن حالات إنسانيّة مُستمرة الحدوث رغم تقادم الأزمان.
فالبحث هذا يعمد
... Show MoreVaried uses of international rivers in the past few decades dramatically, resulting in this multiplicity of uses and all associated with it for the occurrence of freshwater scarcity activities, and thus an increase in conflicts and disputes around on the rights of each of the riparian countries to benefit from the waters of the river at various purposes, particularly the establishment of dams on some of them as is the case (Renaissance Ethiopian) big impact on downstream countries Dam (Egypt and Sudan), due to the Oukuahma at the end of the Nile Valley made them vulnerable to environmental fluctuations, political crises facing the Nile basin countries, and any reduction in the proportion of water is not only the Nile River, but for all r
... Show MoreThe radio drama is considered to be one of the arts that is discovered after a long period of theater's discovery. Initially , it was the broad framework of the theater's work when radio was broadcasting the shows on the huge theaters. This beginning encouraged many of the radio specialists to correlate plays with radio and make a novice and distinctive type of art. Thus, radio drama made its first step including the following ( plays, short and long series drama as well as other types of radio arts). Because of the above mentioned , the researcher is stimulating to study directing techniques to process the radio drama script ( Khata'a play as a sample).
The first chapter deals with the
... Show MoreBackground: This study aimed to assess the effect of tooth shape ratio on mandibular incisor arrangement. Materials and methods: The sample included dental casts of some dental students and orthodontic patients having Class I dental and skeletal patterns with normal occlusion and severe crowding. The sample was divided into two groups according to the severity of crowding into: group I had Class I normal occlusion with mild or no crowded mandibular dentition and group II had Class I malocclusion with severe crowded mandibular dentition. Each group comprising of 40 subjects (20 males and 20 females). The mesio-distal and facio-lingual crown diameters were measured manually for each cast using modified vernier caliper gauge. Descriptive sta
... Show MoreThe study aimed to investigate the role of Dectin-1 and Card-9 in pathogenicity of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This investigations involved 150 blood samples for IBD patients which divided in to two groups (50 for crohns disease CD (G2) and 50 for ulcerative colitis UC (G3)). All a apparently (male and female) attended to) Al-Kindy hospital) in Baghdad city, department of Gastroenterology. and all of thin were diagnosis by consulters medical staff and pathologists with age range 15-65years average 40 years. in addition to 50 blood samples were collected from apparently healthy individuals as control group (G1). 10 ml were withdrawn from all participants, 5ml for the immunological study which carried by ELISA technique and 5 ml used fo
... Show MoreRecurrent respiratory tract infections are responsible for about 85% of all diseases in childhood, and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to evaluate the main causes underlying recurrent respiratory tract infections in 176 pediatric patients aged 2 month to 4 year and weight from 4 to11 kg referred to the child center hospital and Al-sader hospital prospective study.All parents were given information sheet which then analyzed and the percentage of incidence of causes were recorded, we found that higher % related to many causes; mostly related to the parent like poor family education, mother carelessness, incomplete vaccination, other related to empirical diagnosis, and short course of t
... Show MoreThe increase in the number of trucks and other heavy vehicles in Iraqi highways lead to cracking and deteriorations in the flexible highway. The use of polymermodified asphalt may solve this problem to match the required performance standards. This study investigates the effects of styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS) polymer on the performance behaviour of Iraqi bitumen binder. The characteristics of bitumen binder were analysed to observe the compatibility of bitumen with SBS polymer. The bitumen binder was mixed with three different contents of SBS (4%, 4.5%, and 5%) by weight of asphalt cement. Viscosity tests were conducted on the SBS polymer-modified asphalt at 135 oC and 165 oC in addition to conventional binder tests. The prepar
... Show MoreThe purpose of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS 15) is to determine the basis for reporting useful information to the users of financial reports on the nature, amount, timing and uncertainty about revenues and cash flows arising from a contract with a customer. It is based on specific conditions for recognizing revenue from the contract. When the two parties to the contract or one of them fulfil the performance obligations, specifically after the customer has the ability to exercise control over the product or service that is the subject of the contract. As a result of the failure of the revenue reporting requirements in the Iraqi environment to provide adequate and honestly representative information on the o
... Show MoreObjectives: To study the prevalence of rs1799964 (-1031 T/C) and rs361525 (- 238 G/A) SNPs and their effect on the disease activity, severity, and cytokines production in newly diagnosed Iraqi rheumatoid arthritis patients. Patients and Methods: sixty-three patients were diagnosed by a specialist physician while attending the rheumatology unit and twenty control participated. The inflammatory markers were measured and PCR amplification and sequencing were performed to demonstrate TNF-α SNPs. Results: Regarding (-1031 C/T) SNP, the TT genotype and allele C were significantly present in the controls, and the CT genotype was distributed significantly in the patients. The TT genotype was mostly distributed in the mild-moder
... Show MoreBackground Bloodstream infection (BSI) is a life-threatening condition caused by the presence of microorganisms, generally caused by a range of bacteria in the blood. Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible role of procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as biomarkers of pediatric BSI. Methodology The study was conducted on 150 blood samples collected from the patient who admitted to Children Welfare Teaching Hospital, Medical City, Baghdad. During the period from November 2020 to March 2021, ninety blood samples from them were positive culture and 60 blood samples were negative culture (control group). The isolates were identified depending on the morphological, microscopic examination, and biochemical tests.
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