Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

In this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as  the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best  estimator  is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).

     As is  known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important  price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.

       We have been address the problem of Strongly  seasonal  commodities in calculating  (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.

   We have  used an actual data  for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal&nbs

The concept of TQM is based on one of the concepts that combine administrative and innovative methods. The aim of the research is to demonstrate the dimensions of TQM in enhancing the satisfaction of the taxpayers through a survey of a sample of officials in the General Authority for Taxation and 50 officials. In the collection of data and information, and the results were analyzed using the SPSS program to find the most important compounds and factors in he method of analysis.

The research problem was represented by the non-application of the General Authority for Taxation to the entrances and modern practices in the administrative work. The results of some of the complications that accompany the tax accounting process, which af

This paper studies a novel technique based on the use of two effective methods like modified Laplace- variational method (MLVIM) and a new Variational method (MVIM)to solve PDEs with variable coefficients. The current modification for the (MLVIM) is based on coupling of the Variational method (VIM) and Laplace- method (LT). In our proposal there is no need to calculate Lagrange multiplier. We applied Laplace method to the problem .Furthermore, the nonlinear terms for this problem is solved using homotopy method (HPM). Some examples are taken to compare results between two methods and to verify the reliability of our present methods.

Non-thermal argon plasma needle at atmospheric pressure was
constructed. The experimental setup was based on a simple and low
cost electric component that generates a sufficiently high electric
field at the electrodes to ionize the argon gas which flow at
atmospheric pressure. A high AC power supply was used with 1.1
kV and 19.57 kHz. Non-thermal Argon plasma used on blood
samples to show the ability of non-thermal plasma to promote blood
coagulation. Three tests have been done to show the ability of plasma
to coagulate both normal and anti-coagulant blood. Each blood
sample has been treated for varying time from 20sec. to 180sec. at
different distances. The results of the current study showed that the
co

In this paper, a self-tuning adaptive neural controller strategy for unknown nonlinear system is presented. The system considered is described by an unknown NARMA-L2 model and a feedforward neural network is used to learn the model with two stages. The first stage is learned off-line with two configuration serial-parallel model & parallel model to ensure that model output is equal to actual output of the system & to find the jacobain of the system. Which appears to be of critical importance parameter as it is used for the feedback controller and the second stage is learned on-line to modify the weights of the model in order to control the variable parameters that will occur to the system. A back propagation neural network is appl

Background: The prevalence of obesity is continuously rising world-wide. Obesity is an important risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), metabolic syndrome (MS), and type 2 diabetes (T2D).
Objective: To estimate the frequency of MS in obese versus non-obese subjects in Basrah, Iraq .
Methods: This is a prospective clinical study performed in Al-Sadr Teaching Hospital, Basrah, and included 86 obese subjects (with a BMI ≥ 30), 39 males and 47 females, and 132 non-obese subjects ( with a BMI < 30 ), 60 males and 73 females as a control group. Measurement of height, weight, waist circumference (WC), blood pressure ( BP ), fasting blood glucose ( FBG ), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG ) and high density lipoprotein-