This research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the decrease in the intensity of fluctuations in medium-term interest rates across maturity periods.
The study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.
The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on
... Show MoreBackground and objectives: This study aimed at testing the effect of plastic sleeve or barrier, used to cover the guide of the light cure unit to prevent cross-infection, on the shear bond strength and site of bond failure of stainless steel and ceramic orthodontic brackets. Materials and methods: Forty orthodontic brackets; twenty stainless steel and twenty ceramic brackets bonded to forty extracted human maxillary first premolars using light cure adhesive cured with and without the use of a protective plastic barrier on the guide. Comparing the effect of this barrier on the shear bond strength and adhesive remnant index was performed using an independent t-test and Chi-square test. Results: The protective barrier had decreased the shear b
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will study non parametric model when the response variable have missing data (non response) in observations it under missing mechanisms MCAR, then we suggest Kernel-Based Non-Parametric Single-Imputation instead of missing value and compare it with Nearest Neighbor Imputation by using the simulation about some difference models and with difference cases as the sample size, variance and rate of missing data.
Construction projects are characterized as projects with multi phases and activities, complex, unique, and have many different parties and stakeholders. Risks could appear at one or more of the construction project stages and may affect the achievement of project objectives. Therefore, one of the key elements in the planning phase of any project is the risk management process (RMP). This study attempts to understand the terminology of risk in general, risk management, and response to risk in particular. This study is mainly a review of thirty-eight studies that have been published between 1997 and 2020 that demonstrate the importance of the crucial phase of risk response from the risk management process and its impact on
... Show MoreA numerical method is developed to obtain two-dimensional velocity and pressure distribution through a cylindrical pipe with cross jet flows. The method is based on solving partial differential equations for the conservation of mass and momentum by finite difference method to convert them into algebraic equations. This well-known problem is used to introduce the basic concepts of CFD including: the finite- difference mesh, the discrete nature of the numerical solution, and the dependence of the result on the mesh refinement. Staggered grid implementation of the numerical model is used. The set of algebraic equations is solved simultaneously by “SIMPLE” algorithm to obtain velocity and pressure distribution within a pipe. In order to
... Show MoreIn this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample
... Show MoreThe Research topic seeks to analyze the "political risk and its component Terrorism Index," which consists of five indicators index, a number of terrorist operations, and the number of dead and wounded, and the size of the physical losses, based search sub-index analysis of material losses for the index terrorism and its impact on the indicators listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange Finance. As for the practical side, it has been use style gradient unrestricted and link the sample represented by ten banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. was Statement the correlation and interaction of variables of the studySearch results produced that the volume of material losses is the most important indicator in the influential force and it explain a v
... Show MoreThe research aims to analysis of the current financial crisis in Iraq through knowing its causes and then propose some solutions that help in remedy the crisis and that on the level of expenditures and revenues, and has been relying on the Federal general budget law of the Republic of Iraq for the fiscal year 2016 to obtain the necessary data in respect of the current expenditures and revenues which necessary to achieve the objective of the research , and through the research results has been reached to a set of conclusions which the most important of them that causes of the current financial crisis in Iraq , mainly belonging to increased expenditures and especially the current ones and the lack of revenues , especially non-oil o
... Show MoreAlternative distribution to estimate the Dose – Response model in bioassay excrement
This research concern to study five different distribution (Probit , Logistic, Arc sine , extreme value , One hit ), to estimate dose –response model by using m.l.e and probit method This is done by determining different weights in each distribution in addition find all particular statistics for vital model .