The researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting a stable transitional probability matrix and predicting each studied case and any behavior may take in the future.
Abstract
The prevention of bankruptcy not only prolongs the economic life of the company and increases its financial performance, but also helps to improve the general economic well-being of the country. Therefore, forecasting the financial shortfall can affect various factors and affect different aspects of the company, including dividends. In this regard, this study examines the prediction of the financial deficit of companies that use the logistic regression method and its impact on the earnings per share of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The time period of the research is from 2015 to 2020, where 33 companies that were accepted in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a sample, and the res
... Show Moreفي هذا البحث نحاول تسليط الضوء على إحدى طرائق تقدير المعلمات الهيكلية لنماذج المعادلات الآنية الخطية والتي تزودنا بتقديرات متسقة تختلف أحيانا عن تلك التي نحصل عليها من أساليب الطرائق التقليدية الأخرى وفق الصيغة العامة لمقدرات K-CLASS. وهذه الطريقة تعرف بطريقة الإمكان الأعظم محدودة المعلومات "LIML" أو طريقة نسبة التباين الصغرى"LVR
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The Purpose of this study is mainly to improve the competitive position of products economic units using technique target cost and method reverse engineering and through the application of technique and style on one of the public sector companies (general company for vegetable oils) which are important in the detection of prices accepted in the market for items similar products and processing the problem of high cost which attract managerial and technical leadership to the weakness that need to be improved through the introduction of new innovative solutions which make appropriate change to satisfy the needs of consumers in a cheaper way to affect the decisions of private customer to buy , especially of purchase private economic units to
... Show MoreMarkov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problem
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When optimizing the performance of neural network-based chatbots, determining the optimizer is one of the most important aspects. Optimizers primarily control the adjustment of model parameters such as weight and bias to minimize a loss function during training. Adaptive optimizers such as ADAM have become a standard choice and are widely used for their invariant parameter updates' magnitudes concerning gradient scale variations, but often pose generalization problems. Alternatively, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with Momentum and the extension of ADAM, the ADAMW, offers several advantages. This study aims to compare and examine the effects of these optimizers on the chatbot CST dataset. The effectiveness of each optimizer is evaluat
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Abstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
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The great scientific progress has led to widespread Information as information accumulates in large databases is important in trying to revise and compile this vast amount of data and, where its purpose to extract hidden information or classified data under their relations with each other in order to take advantage of them for technical purposes.
And work with data mining (DM) is appropriate in this area because of the importance of research in the (K-Means) algorithm for clustering data in fact applied with effect can be observed in variables by changing the sample size (n) and the number of clusters (K)
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The purpose of this research is to a treatment the impact of Views outliers to the estimators of a distributed arrival and service to the theory of queues and estimate the distribution parameters depending on the robust estimators, and when he was outliers greatest impact in the process of estimating the both distributions mentioned parameters, it was necessary to use way to test that does these data contain abnormal values or not? it was used the method ( Tukey ) for this purpose and is of the most popular ways to discover the outliers , it shows that there are views abnormal (outliers ) in the estimators of each of the distributional arrival and service, which have a significant impact on the calculation of these estimato
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The purpose of this paper is use the Dynamic Programming to solve a deterministic periodic review model for inventory problem and then to find the optimal policies that the company must uses in the purchase or production (in the practical application example the Al Aksa company purchase the generators from out side country).
This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
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