The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

In The Name of Allah Most Gracious Most Merciful

The characteristics of the doers of good are mentioned in the Holy Book of God, and love for them in five places, and whoever God loves, honors him and gives him victory. As for the love of the righteous, it has to do with loyalty, covenant, and integrity. Committing sins 0 Then after that he mentioned God those who fight in His cause and those who rely on Him and return to Him and turning away from everything else.

The goal of this research to identify a set of criteria that can be measured on the basis of which the effectiveness of the application of the Balanced Scorecard in the Jordanian Public Institutions in order to identify the basic requirements to ensure the application of balanced performance measures. The study population consisted of the staff of the Public Institution for Social Security - Irbid of directors of departments and heads of departments and administrative staff, was the use of a random sample of (50) an employee and the employee. The questionnaire was used as a tool to collect data, and as a result of subjecting these standards for the field test and the use of statistical analysis tools to the results of the study c

 Abstract

It considers training programs is an important process contributing to provide employees with the skills required to do their jobs efficiently and effectively, so it should be concerned with and the focus of all government our organizations, and perhaps the most important reasons that I was invited to select the subject (evaluation of training programs directed toward the diagnosis of the phenomenon of financial and administrative corruption) It is the importance of those programs working in the regulatory institutions General and the Office of Inspector General of Finance and the Ministry particularly for employees because of their role in the development of their skills and their experience and their beha

The study focuses on Kamez model and the Claus Meyer model of instructional design, which are models that provide the learner with educational experiences to suit the logical information of the learner and the variety of instructional models. Research Objective: The present research aims to identify Limitations of the study. The current research is determined by ((fourth grade preparatory students, the book of the date of the fourth preparatory course)) Chapter II includes Arabic and foreign studies on the model of Kemp and Claus Mayer in the acquisition of concepts and direction towards the material. Chapter III Experimental Design: The researcher adopted an experimental design with two experimental groups and a control group. The resea

The postmodern ideas and concepts have produced social, political and economic variables that have been affected by wars, crises, the role of globalization and the information revolution. They have created many variables in concepts and great variables in technological, artistic and cultural innovations. All these changes have contributed to changing the form of the theatrical show aesthetically and intellectually, which cast a shadow over the nature of the actor's performance who has become more demanding to change his performance and to find the mechanisms and new nature of work governing him corresponding to those variables and this prompted the researcher to adopt the subject (the performance variable of the actor's techniques in pos

Lactobacillus Plantarum and Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG were encapsulated using 3% of alginate via extrusion technique. And the probiotics capsules produced were further coated used 1% chitosan to increase the survival of probiotics, and evaluation of The heat resistance of the slow pasteurization and fast pasteurization for Lb,pla and Lb.GG for control and bacteria coated one layer and bacteria coated two layer at 63°C/ 30 minutes and 72°C/ 15 seconds. The results indicate that the Probiotic coated two layer are more resistant to pasteurization temperatures at 63°C/ 30 minutes and 72°C/ 15 seconds than the Probiotic coated one layer. While the results of the control follow a significant reduction for viability of cell toward pasteuri

The study aims to integrate the visually impaired people into the art connoisseur community through producing special print artworks to enable the visually impaired people to use their other senses to feel artworks by using artistic printing techniques through adding some prominent materials to the printing colors or making an impact that visually impaired people can perceive using their other senses. This study also aims to set up art exhibitions that display tangible works that can enable visually impaired people to feel artwork and understand its elements to enable them to feel it through other senses.
The study follows the experimental method, through using artistic printing techniques, which allow printing with prominent textur

The current research aims to identify the level of impact of strategic improvisation as an independent variable on organizational health. The dependent variable in the Department of Health of Dhi Qar to reach appropriate mechanisms in order to reach appropriate mechanisms and recommendations proposed to contribute to the achievement of organizational health in the Department of Health of Dhi Qar (the research department) and based on the importance of the subject of research in government institutions and the important and service role of the Department of Health of Dhi Qar in the Iraqi society. The descriptive analytical approach was adopted in the completion of the research based on the opinions of the leaders in the surveyed depa