Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Fiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).

It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha

Online communication on social networks has become a never-given-up way of expressing and sharing views and opinions within the realm of all topics on earth, and that is that! A basis essential in this is the limits at which "freedom of expression" should not be trespassed so as not to fall into the expression of "hate speech". These two ends make a base in the UN regulations pertaining to human rights: One is free to express, but not to hate by expression. Hereunder, a Critical Discourse Analysis in terms of Fairclough's dialectical-relational approach (2001) is made of Facebook posts (being made by common people, and not of official nature)  targeting Islam and Muslims. This is made so as to recognize these instances of "speech" a

Our critical history is marked by the presence of eminent poets who have tried to read, as for their texts, such as Al-Mutanabbi, Ibn Abd Rabu and Ibn Arabi. As for the texts of others, such as Al-Farazdaq, Jarir, and Omar bin Abi Rabi'a, and what is distinctive in their readings was that they were texts corresponding to the reading text, then the reading of Jarir Naqdah and Omar bin Abi Rabi`a was an opposition and Ibn Abd Rabu was scrutinized and Ibn Arabi was an interpretation and al-Mutanabi an explanation, and I found that these in their readings constitute a specificity that must be revealed The way of this research (constructive critical reading by the Arab poet - a critical study -) their poor are critical because criticism is pr