Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This study aimed to prepare a program (physical-nutritional) for women with polycystic ovary, as well as to identify the effect of this program on some body measurements and the incidence of polycystic ovarian syndrome in the research sample. A total of 12 women (aged 20-25 years) with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) participated in the randomized controlled trial design. They were divided equally into two groups (experimental and control group). The experimental group received the physical-nutritional program accompanying the treatment program, while the control group received only the instructions of the specialist doctor and the treatment program prepared by them. The two researchers applied their nutritional progr

The objectives of this study revolve around identifying the extent of funding impact on the future of the printed Iraqi press, and whether it threatens their chances of survival, stating the extent of technological development on the income of the printed newspaper, and identifying the causes of the financial crisis on the newspaper. This research is classified as descriptive research, and the researcher used the survey method, and adopted the questionnaire of the views of the contactors, in five Iraqi newspapers (morning - extent - time - the way of the people - the call). The research community included (68) respondents, whereby the comprehensive inventory method was used to define the research community, and the researcher used t

Background: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of mortality among women in Iraq forming 23% of cancer related deaths. The low survival from the disease is a direct consequence to the advanced stages at diagnoses. Aim: To document the composite stage of breast cancer among Iraqi patients at the time of diagnosis; correlating the observed findings with other clinical and pathological parameters at presentation. Patients and Methods: A retrospective study enrolling the clinical and pathological characteristics of 603 Iraqi female patients diagnosed with breast cancer. The composite stage of breast cancer was determined according to UICC TNM Classification System of Breast Cancer and the Ameri

Abstract

Knowing the amount of residual stresses and find technological solutions to minimize and control them during the production operation are an important task because great levels of deformation which occurs in single point incremental forming (SPIF), this induce highly non-uniform residual stresses. In this papera propose of a method for multilayer single point incremental forming with change in thickness of the top plate (0.5, 0.7, 0.9) mm and lubrication or material between two plates(polymer, grease, grease with graphite, mos₂) to knowing an effect of this method  and parameters on residual stresses for the bottom plates. Also compare these results for the

This research deals with the effect of constructive conflict of the organizational identification .These relatively recent subjects have relative importance in the field of administration and they have strong effect in the success of organizations .The objective of this research is to detect the level of the constructive conflict and the organizational identification in the center of The Ministry of Planning. So, two major hypotheses were formulated The first are searched the correlation between the constructive conflict and the organizational identification and it emerged with four sub-hypotheses searched the correlation among every dimension of the constructive conflict with the organizational identification .The second major h

Agricultural loans play an important role in the growth and stimulation of agricultural investment opportunities in Iraq, as well as the sustainability and development of existing agricultural projects. The agricultural sector is characterized by the specific conditions of seasonal production and fluctuations in production conditions, which makes the situation of uncertainty more acute in this sector, the need for any agricultural project for financing is urgent and continuous if it wants to continue production and development at all stages. The study proved the impact of agricultural loans in increasing investment and agricultural production at specific times, However, the fluctuation of funding

Hypercholesterolemia is a predominant risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The World Health Organization (WHO), ) recommended reducing the intake of cholesterol and saturated fats. On the other hand, limited evidence is available on the benefits of vegetables in the diet to reduce these risk factors, so this research was conducted to compare the hypolipidemic effect between the extracts of two different types of Iraqi peppers, the fruit of the genus Capsicum traditionally known as red pepper extract (RPE), and Piper nigrum as black pepper extract (BPE), respectively, in different parameters and histology of the liver of the experimental animals. The red pepper was extracted by ethyl acetate, while the black pepp

Terrorism is a global phenomenon that engulfs most regions of the world to varying degrees. Media outlets are aware of the many incidents of violence and terrorism that have increased in recent times. The differences between the size of the phenomenon in different societies are the causes and severity of the phenomenon. On the role of local satellite channels in shaping the knowledge and trends of the Iraqi public towards the events of terrorism, in light of the assumptions of reliance on the media. The importance of this study is that it assesses the role of local satellite channels in the formation of knowledge and trends The study seeks to know the extent of exposure of the Iraqi public to local satellite channels, and to reveal the e