Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Abstract

                   The study aimed to identify the expansion in granting credit to Iraqi banking institutions and its impact on the financial position of Iraqi banks in terms of revenues, profits, expenses and property rights in banks, as the expansion in granting bank credit will correspond to an increase or decrease in some items of the balance sheet and the financial position of banks, so the problem of the current study It will be determined through whether the expansion of granting bank credit will affect the financial position of Iraqi banks or not by studying the selected research community of the 10 Iraqi banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, The research sample included the u

This present study demonstrated that liver was involved in 14 %of typhoid patients manifesting with hepatomegaly. Elevation of serum enzymes in typhoid fever was presumably of a muscular origin, while elevation of liver enzyme was relatively less common. This study was performed on 30 female patients diagnosed by ultrasound (US) of abdomen, with paratyphoid A, ranged between (20-40) years compared with 30 healthy control .Patients volunteers were treated with appropriate antibiotics for 14 days and investigations were repeated 2-3 week after completion of treatment. Patients had clinical and biochemical evidence of hepatic dysfunction. The spectrum of hepatic involvement included hepatomegaly , jaundice, derangement of various hepatic func

It is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul

In this paper, a Cholera epidemic model is proposed and studied analytically as well as numerically. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by contact with Vibrio cholerae and infected person according to dose-response function. However, the saturated treatment function is used to describe the recovery process. Moreover, the vaccine against the disease is assumed to be utterly ineffective. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All possible equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are determined. The local stability and persistence conditions are established. Lyapunov method and the second additive compound matrix are used to study the global stability of the system.

Polycaprolactone is one of the natural biodegradable polymers mainly used in bioplastics production for packaging, usually composed of non-toxic compounds and biodegradable. The aim was to examine the role of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanopowder on the,wettability , thermal and anti-bacterial effect nanocomposites.  Pure PCL and PCL-based bio- nanocomposites doped with various ratios of ZnO nanoparticles from 0% to 5wt% were prepared through the arrangement of throwing procedure.  The results show that wettability properties in relation to ideal PCL and that they were increasingly hydrophobic from 57º.8 to 69º.53 because add ZnO  nanocomposites,the thermal stability between 300 and 400 ° C makes them perfect for the application

Stability of laminated plate under thermal load varied linearly along thickness, is developed using a higher order displacement field which depend on a parameter “m”, whose value is optimized to get results closest to three-dimension elasticity results. Hamilton, s principle is used to derive equations of motion for laminated plates. These equations are solved using Navier-type for simply supported boundary conditions to obtain non uniform critical thermal buckling and fundamental frequency under a ratio of this load. Many design parameters of cross ply and angle ply laminates such as, number of layers, aspect ratios and E1/E2 ratios for thick and thin plates are investigated. It is observed that linear and uniform distribution of

It is proposed and studied a prey-predator system with a Holling type II functional response that merges predation fear with a predator-dependent prey's refuge. Understanding the impact of fear and refuge on the system's dynamic behavior is one of the objectives. All conceivable steady-states are investigated for their stability. The persistence condition of the system has been established. Local bifurcation analysis is performed in the Sotomayor sense. Extensive numerical simulation with varied parameters was used to explore the system's global dynamics. A limit cycle and a point attractor are the two types of attractors in the system. It's also interesting to note that the system exhibits bi-stability between these 2 types of attractors.