Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The current paper investigates the effect of cut-out design parameters on load-bearing capacity and buckling behaviour of steel cylindrical shell using a nonlinear finite element analysis in modelling cylinder buckling under longitudinal compressive load. The effect of four geometry design parameters: shell diameter to thickness ratio, cut-out location, orientation, and size were investigated in this study. To enhance the prediction of buckling behaviour, both geometrical and material nonlinearities were considered. An ANSYS APDL code was written and tested by verifying its validity through comparison with former buckling study. The results showed that changing the cut-out location from mid-height of the cylindrical shell towards a

Economic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.

The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance

ABSTRACT Purpose: the aim of this in vitro study was to compare the marginal gap and internal fitness between single crowns and the crowns within three-unit bridges of zirconium fabricated by CAD-CAM system. Materials and methods: A standard model from ivoclar company was used as a pattern to simulate three-units bridge (upper first molar and upper first premolar) as abutments used to fabricate stone models, eight single crowns for premolar and eight of three units bridges. Crowns and bridges fabricated by CAD-CAM system were cemented on their respective stone models then sectioned at the mid-point buccolingaully and misiodistaly and examined under stereomicroscope. Result: the marginal gap in premolar crowns and premolar within bridge we

ABSTRACT

The study evaluated the effect of adding quercetin to some characteristics of the sperm of the ram. This study was conducted in the animal field, Department of Animal Production, College of Agricultural Engineering Science, University of Baghdad for the period 5/12/2021 to 20/2/2022. In this experiment, 3 rams were used at the age of 2-2.5 years and weighed 50-55 kg. The semen was collected early in the morning and once a week and the semen was pooled to remove the individual differences. The treatments were divided: quercetin-free control group, treatment T1 (3 µL/mL quercetin), T2 treatment (6 µL/mL quercetin), T3 treatment (9 µL/mL quercetin). The result of the study showed

This study examined the adsorption behavior of anionic dye (orange G) from aqueous solution onto the raw and activated a mixture of illite, kaolinite and chlorite clays from area of Zorbatiya (east of Iraq).The chemical treatment involved alkali and acid activation. The alkali activation obtained by treated the raw clay (RC) with 5M NaOH (ACSO) and the acid activation founded by treated it with 0.25M HCl (ACH) and 0.25M  (ACS). The thermal treatment carried out by calcination the produce activated clay at 750^oC for acid activation and 105^oC for alkali activation. Batch

The aim of the research to apply TD-ABC technology to determine the idle capacity of the central oil companies (oil field east of Baghdad), as a modern cost management technology based on time-oriented activities (TD-ABC) is used by industrial companies in general and oil companies on In particular to build a sustainable Calvinist pillar and make future decisions by identifying idle energy to gain it a competitive advantage, the descriptive analytical approach has been adopted in calculating and analyzing the company’s data for 2018, and the most prominent conclusions of this research are managing idle energy and the task of applying cost technology on the basis of time-oriented activities and providing Convenient spatial infor