Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Seventy four Iraqi breast cancer paraffin blocks were collected from patients were attended to center health laboratory, histopathology department, Bagdad, Iraq. The patients information’s which included: name, age, and the pathological stage, grade, tumor size were obtained from the clinical records of the patients also relation with sex hormones was recorded. The cases which has been taken included invasive ductal and invasive lobular carcinoma type Women age were ranged from 24-80 years peak age frequency of tumor occurred in the category of more than 40 years old. Immunohistochemical expression of her-2/neu was from total 74 cases of infiltrative ductal carcinoma cases, 27(36.49%)were positive for Her-2/neu expression, 47(63.51%) were

Abstract

This study aimed to identify the business risks using the approach of the client strategy analysis in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process. A study of business risks and their impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process has been performed to establish a cognitive framework of the main objective of this study, in which the descriptive analytical method has been adopted. A survey questionnaire has been developed and distributed to the targeted group of audit firms which have profession license from the Auditors Association in the Gaza Strip (63 offices). A hundred questionnaires have been distributed to the study sample of which, a total of 84 where answered and

Groundwater is an important resource that can be used for various purposes. Various factors can change the chemistry of the GW, such as the chemical composition of an aquifer as well as the leaching of human waste into groundwater. The study area is a barren land covered by some sabkhas, in addition to some agricultural fields. The study aims to assess groundwater quality for drinking purposes using the Water Quality Index. The groundwater is chemically heterogeneous and has a wide quality range from very poor to excellent. Evaporation appears to be the controlling factor among the other shallow waters, while relatively deep water is related to rock-soil dominance. Rocks, land use and land cover have helped control the groundwater q

We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

This research aimed to predict the permanent deformation (rutting) in conventional and rubberized asphalt mixes under repeated load conditions using the Finite Element Method (FEM). A three-dimensional (3D) model was developed to simulate the Wheel Track Testing (WTT) loading. The study was conducted using the Abaqus/Standard finite element software. The pavement slab was simulated using a nonlinear creep (time-hardening) model at 40°C. The responses of the viscoplastic model under the influence of the trapezoidal amplitude of moving wheel loadings were determined for different speeds and numbers of cycles. The results indicated that a wheel speed increase from 0.5Km/h to 1.0Km/h decreased the rut depth by about 22% and 24% in conv

This study examines experimentally the performance of a horizontal triple concentric tube heat exchanger TCTHE made of copper metal using water as cooling fluid and oil-40 as hot fluid. Hot fluid enters the inner annular tube of the TCTHE in a direction at a temperature of 50, 60 and 70 ^oC and a flow rate of 20 l/hr. On the other hand, the cooling fluid enters the inner tube and the outer annular tube in the reverse direction (counter current flow) at a temperature of 25 ^oC and flow rates of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 l/hr. The TCTHE is composed of three copper tubes with outer diameters of 34.925 mm, 22.25 mm, and 9.525 mm, and thicknesses of 1.27 mm, 1.143 mm, and 0.762 mm, respectively. TCTHE tube's length was 670

Groundwater quality deterioration due to anthropogenic natural activities and its immense utilization in various sectors is considered a great concern. The aim of this study is to determine the groundwater quality parameters at various sources in and around Dhaka city and compare them with Bangladesh drinking water standards. In this study, six groundwater quality parameters (pH, DO, COD, TS, TDS, and arsenic) and ten groundwater samples are analyzed to determine the water quality. The collected samples have maximum and minimum pH values of 6.9 and 6.4, respectively. Maximum and minimum DO values are 0.3 and 0.1 mg/L, respectively. The arsenic concentration is 0 mg/L for all collected groundwater samples. The maximum and minimum COD

we studied the effect of low level laser therapy (LLLT) using diode laser with wavelength of (790-805) nm in promotion and enhancement of wound healing of episiotomy and to evaluate the analgesic effect of LLLT in reducing the pain sensation caused by the episiotomy wounds. Nineteen women with episiotomy wound were selected and divided into three groups; 1st group (group No.1: control group) given antibiotics without laser therapy, in the 2nd group (group No.2) the wounds were exposed to laser therapy (4 sessions, each session with energy density of 19.90 J /cm2 every other day ) and systemic antibiotics were prescribed for 1 week. In the 3rd group (group No.3) the wounds were exposed to laser therapy (4 sessions, the same as in the 2nd