The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

The toxicological risks and lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) including Halloacetic acids (HAAs) and trihalomethanes (THMs) compounds by drinking water in several districts in Wassit Province were estimated. The seasonal variation of HAAs and THMs compounds in drinking water have indicated that the mean values for total HAAs (THAAs) and total THMs (TTHMs) ranged from 43.2 to 72.4 mg/l and from 40 to 115.5 mg/l, respectively. The World health organization index for additive toxicity approach was non-compliant with the WHO guideline value in summer and autumn seasons and this means that THMs concentration has adverse toxic health effects. The multi-pathway of lifetime hu

Background: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a chronic disease of childhood. Increased prevalence of periodontal disease and dental caries in juvenile idiopathic arthritis is due to difficulties in executing good oral hygiene. This study was conducted to assess oral health status in patients with Juvenile idiopathic arthritis according to age and duration of illness. Materials and methods: A research was conducted among Juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients attending Baghdad Teaching Hospital with different age and both gender, underwent a clinical evaluation of their dental and oral condition. Diagnosis of dental caries was done according to the criteria of WHO (1997). Dental plaque, gingival condition, calculus were assessed by PI/

يعتبر "تاج الأشواك" أو نبات شوكة المسيح، وهو من نباتات الزينة الطبية ، ينتمي إلى جنس يوفوربيا. E. milii يحتوي كميات وفيرة من المركبات الفينولية ، التربينات، الستيرويدات والقلويدات. كانت الأهداف الرئيسية لهذه الدراسة هي فحص مستخلصات الفلافونويد والنانو فلافونويد ضد نوعين من خطوط الخلايا السرطانية. تم تصنيع مركبات الفلافونويد النانوية عن طريق تفاعل مركب الكيتوسان والماليك اسد. تم تحليل مركبات الفلافونويد ال

Background: Multiple sclerosis is a chronic heterogeneous demyelinating axonal and inflammatory disease involving the Central Nervous System [CNS] white matter with a possibility of gray matter involvement in which the insulating covers of nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord are damaged. This damage disrupts the ability of parts of the nervous system to communicate, resulting in a wide range of signs and symptoms. Cerebral venous insufficiency theory was raised as a possible etiology for the disease at 2008 by Zamboni an Italian cardiothoracic surgeon. This theory was defeated by Multiple Sclerosis[ MS] researchers and scientists who thought that the disease is an autoimmune rather than vascular.

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Background : Hyperglycosylated hCG a newly discovered variant of hCG which can be used as a predictor of invasion of trophoblastic cells in patient with gestational trophoblastic disease. Objectives : To measure hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotrophin and to assess how far it can be used as predictor of invasion in invasive mole and choriocarcinoma. Study design control study. Setting: : Case Gynecological department in Baghdad Teaching Hospital from January 2016 to January 2017. Patient and Methods : 60 women were enrolled in this study 30 of them were with gestational trophoblastic disease (no.= 30 ) the remainder were normal pregnancy (no. =30) , hCG –H level was measured in both groups. Results : Mean serum hCG-H le

The coefficient of charge transfer at heterogeneous devices of Au metal with a well-known dyeis investigations using quantum model.Four different solvent are used to estimation the effective transition energy. The potential barrier at interface of Au and dye has been determined using effective transition energy and difference between the Fermi energy of Au metal and ionization energy of dye. A possible transfer mechanism cross the potential barrier dyeand coupling strength interaction between the electronic levels in systems of Au and is discussed.Differentdata of effective transition energy and potential barrier calculations suggest that solvent is more suitable to binds Au with dye.

In this paper, a Cholera epidemic model is proposed and studied analytically as well as numerically. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by contact with Vibrio cholerae and infected person according to dose-response function. However, the saturated treatment function is used to describe the recovery process. Moreover, the vaccine against the disease is assumed to be utterly ineffective. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All possible equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are determined. The local stability and persistence conditions are established. Lyapunov method and the second additive compound matrix are used to study the global stability of the system.