Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Some esters were prepared from reaction of different molecular weight of PVA with some acid chloride (prepared by reaction of acid with thionyl chloride or phosphorous pentachloride)in the presence of pyridine. The thermal and reological properties were studied. The increasing Of bulky groups decreasing stability of the thermal and reological properties.

It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values  (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna

It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values  (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna

The present research is descriptive and analytical by nature; it practically presents the method of implementing the standard pattern in an unconventional way using the bias-cut line. The study aims at investigating the variables of bias-cut and their suitability for fitting large-shaped Iraqi ladies. It also aims at exploring the artistic and innovative features of the bias-cut. Therefore, one needs to understand the rules and basics of clothing and the nature of the body to reach the maximum degree of control.Consequently, the study is to answer the following questions: What is the effectiveness of tailoring on the bias-cut in fitting a standard template of a large-shaped Iraqi ladies? Is it possible to obtain from the offered possibil

In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on the basis of the method of the Cen

Abstract:
If we neglect the value of historical fashions as a source of inspiration for
contemporary fashion designers we will neglect a treasure of original designs.
In neglecting such a treasure how could we then know what is original. Today
the most famous fashion designers are often inspired, in the outwardly from
and internal lines of their fashions, by fashion designed during the ages of the
past.
Designers can find such fashions in books of history and museums. But
the historical ages are not equal in the fertility of the originality and novelty of
their fashions. Thus the contemporary designer may not find the old designs
inspiring so he invents them.
The researcher was keen in this paper to inclu

Kinetic and mechanism studies of the oxidation of oxalic acid by Cerium sulphate have been carried out in acid medium sulphuric acid. The uv- vis. Spectrophotometric technique was used to follow up the reaction and the selected wavelength to be followed was 320 nm. The kinetic study showed that the order of reaction is first order in Ce(IV) and fractional in oxalic acid. The effect of using different concentration of sulphuric acid on the rate of the reaction has been studied a and it was found that the rate decreased with increasing the acid concentration. Classical organic tests was used to identify the product of the oxidation reaction, the product was just bubbles of CO₂.

Disease responses of eight wheat cultivars , Saber Beg. , Abu-Ghraib 3, Mexipak , Tamoz 2,Tamoz 3 , IPA 95 ,IPA 99 and Tahadi which were grown in four different sowing date , 25 th October , 19th September , 14th December and 8 January , to leaf rust disease caused by Puccinia recondita were investigated under natural infection conditions at the experimental farm , College of Agriculture , Abu-Ghraib, during the growing season of 1997-1998.Results of this study revealed that IPA 95, IPA 99 and Tahadi showed moderate resistant reaction, while Tamuz 3 was moderateley susceptable . Abu-Ghraib , Saber Beg, Tamuz 2 and Mexipak showed susceptible yeaction to the causal agent . The first sowing date was not suitable for disease progress in compars

The process of evaluating business processes, complex, repetition of procurement processes, need for raw materials and frequency of demand, which makes dealing with suppliers in the evaluation process, making the need for a process intervention in the process. Lighter on the other hand.

Many Iraqi companies suffer from problems related to suppliers, and cases of administrative and financial corruption are often raised regarding this type of contract and from this reality the necessity of researching this problem and trying to develop some solutions to reduce its impact on the companies' work, by using a method that works according to the standards adopted in Evaluation and selection of the supplier in the