Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade

The aim of this paper is to present a method for solving third order ordinary differential equations with two point boundary condition , we propose two-point osculatory interpolation to construct polynomial solution. The original problem is concerned using two-points osculatory interpolation with the fit equal numbers of derivatives at the end points of an interval [0 , 1] . Also, many examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability, accuracy and efficiency of the method by compared with conventional method .

With the wide developments of computer applications and networks, the security of information has high attention in our common fields of life. The most important issues is how to control and prevent unauthorized access to secure information, therefore this paper presents a combination of two efficient encryption algorithms to satisfy the purpose of information security by adding a new level of encryption in Rijndael-AES algorithm. This paper presents a proposed Rijndael encryption and decryption process with NTRU algorithm, Rijndael algorithm is widely accepted due to its strong encryption, and complex processing as well as its resistance to brute force attack. The proposed modifications are implemented by encryption and decryption Rijndael

In this paper, a robust invisible watermarking system for digital video encoded by MPEG-4 is presented. The proposed scheme provides watermark hidden by embedding a secret message (watermark) in the sprite area allocated in reference frame (I-frame). The proposed system consists of two main units: (i) Embedding unit and (ii) Extraction unit. In the embedding unit, the system allocates the sprite blocks using motion compensation information. The allocated sprite area in each I–frame is used as hosting area for embedding watermark data. In the extraction unit, the system extracts the watermark data in order to check authentication and ownership of the video. The watermark data embedding method is Blocks average modulation applied on RGB dom

In this paper, the method of estimating the variation of Zenith Path Delay (ZPD) estimation method will be illustrate and evaluate using Real Time Kinematic Differential Global Positioning System (RTK-DGPS). The GPS provides a relative method to remotely sense atmospheric water vapor in any weather condition. The GPS signal delay in the atmosphere can be expressed as ZPD. In order to evaluate the results, four points had been chosen in the university of Baghdad campus to be rover ones, with a fixed Base point. For each rover position a 155 day of coordinates measurements was collected to overcome the results. Many models and mathematic calculations were used to extract the ZPD using the Matlab environment. The result shows that the ZPD valu

In this work, the antibacterial effectiveness of face masks made from polypropylene, against Candida albicans and Pseudomonas aeruginosa pathogenic was improved by soaking in gold nanoparticles suspension prepared by a one-step precipitation method. The fabricated nanoparticles at different concentrations were characterized by UV-visible absorption and showed a broad surface Plasmon band at around 520 nm. The FE-SEM images showed the polypropylene fibres highly attached with the spherical AuNPs of diameters around 25 nm over the surfaces of the soaked fibres. The Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) of pure and treated face masks in AuNPs conform to the characteristics bands for the polypropylene bands. There are some differences

The main aim of this paper is to study how the different estimators of the two unknown parameters (shape and scale parameter) of a generalized exponential distribution behave for different sample sizes and for different parameter values. In particular, 

. Maximum Likelihood, Percentile and Ordinary Least Square estimators had been implemented for different sample sizes (small, medium, and large) and assumed several contrasts initial values for the two parameters. Two indicators of performance Mean Square Error and Mean Percentile Error were used and the comparisons were carried out between different methods of estimation  by using monte carlo simulation technique .. It was obse

Most intrusion detection systems are signature based that work similar to anti-virus but they are unable to detect the zero-day attacks. The importance of the anomaly based IDS has raised because of its ability to deal with the unknown attacks. However smart attacks are appeared to compromise the detection ability of the anomaly based IDS. By considering these weak points the proposed
system is developed to overcome them. The proposed system is a development to the well-known payload anomaly detector (PAYL). By
combining two stages with the PAYL detector, it gives good detection ability and acceptable ratio of false positive. The proposed system improve the models recognition ability in the PAYL detector, for a filtered unencrypt