Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The general budget is usually linked to the role of the state in public life and economic activity, whether this role is neutral or interventionist and thus reflects the general objectives that the state seeks to achieve.

for importance of  the public budget in clarifying the image of the political state philosophy and its objectives it seeks to achieve on the one hand and clarifying the degree and rank it occupies in the ladder of development among the other countries. This study is intended to highlight the concepts of the general budget and how its concept has evolved since the Middle Ages. Of the importance of the general budget in Iraq was not based on scientific and objective and then the study

Transient mixed convection heat transfer in a confined porous medium heated at periodic sinusoidal heat flux is investigated numerically in the present paper. The Poisson-type pressure equation, resulted from the substituting of the momentum Darcy equation in the continuity equation, was discretized by using finite volume technique. The energy equation was solved by a fully implicit control volume-based finite difference formulation for the diffusion terms with the use of the quadratic upstream interpolation for convective kinetics scheme to discretize the convective terms and the temperature values at the control volume faces. The numerical study covers a range of the hydrostatic pressure head , , , , and ), sinusoidal amplitude range of

Transient mixed convection heat transfer in a confined porous medium heated at periodic sinusoidal heat flux is investigated numerically in the present paper. The Poisson-type pressure equation, resulted from the substituting of the momentum Darcy equation in the continuity equation, was discretized by using finite volume technique. The energy equation was solved by a fully implicit control volume-based finite difference formulation for the diffusion terms with the use of the quadratic upstream interpolation for convective kinetics scheme to discretize the convective terms and the temperature values at the control volume faces. The numerical study covers a range of the hydrostatic  pressure sinusoidal  amplitude  range and

The research gained its importance from the importance of technical reserves in the insurance activity and its impact on the result of the activity of insurance companies and their financial position and thus reflected on the insurance prices as the technical reserves are one of the most important and most valuable budget items usually, as well as that the insurance activity has a role in maintaining economic development where some countries develop laws and instructions for the formation of those reserves binding application to insurance companies and the fact that the financial statements in general are of interest to shareholders, banks, the General Tax Authority and other beneficiaries In the insurance activity as policyholders and t

This study examined the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq and the extent of the contribution of these loans granted by banks to finance small and medium enterprises in reducing their rates. The temporal boundaries of the study included the period between (2012-2018). The spatial boundaries consisted of random sampling of six Iraqi banks) Where the government banks included (Rafidain, Rasheed and industrial), private banks included (the Iraqi Islamic Bank and the Gulf Commercial Bank and the Bank of the Middle East). In order to achieve the objective of the research in the light of the hypotheses drawn up, the research divided into three topics, the first section highlighting the reality of small and medium enterprises in Iraq and the lo

مقدمة
تدور الدراسة في علم الاقتصاد المنزلي حول احتیاجات الانسان الضروریة لاستمرار الحیاة ومواقف في محیط
الاسرة وتفاعل مع ظروف البیئة المحیطة بھ .والتي تكون دائمة التغییر لذلك یمكن تعریف علوم وفنون الاقتصاد
المنزلي وفنونھ انھا عبارة عن مجموعة منظمة من المعارف والعلوم تتركز في محور الاسرة والمنزل حیث ینمو
ویتطور الانسان بالعلاقات الانسانیة والنواحي الاقتصادیة والاجتماعیة من جھة والنواحي العلمیة وا

This research aims to study the radiation concentration distribution of the old District of Najaf (Iraq), where 15 samples were taken from featured sites in the District, which represents archaeological, religious, and heritage sites. Track detector CR-39 was used to calculate the concentration of three different soil weights for each sample site after being exposed for a month. Geographical information systems (GIS) were used to distribute the radioactive concentration on the sites of the samples, where two interpolation methods, namely the inverse distance weight method (IDW) and the triangle irregular network method (NIT), to study the distribution of the radioactivity concentration. The study showed that the western part of the district

The current world is observing huge developments in presenting the opportunity for organizations and administrative units to use information and communication technology and their adoption by administrative work due to its importance in the achievement of work with higher efficiency, speed, and facility of communication with all individuals and companies using various means of communication Depending on the Internet networks. Therefore, the research dealt with the study of electronic systems designed and adopted in the creation or construction of a database for archiving data, which is the main method in organizations and administrative units in developed countries. Where this system works to convert documents, and manual processes and t

The current research aims to identify the perceptual speed of the university students as well as to identify the differences in the level of perceptual speed for the university students according to the variables of (male, female) specialization (scientific, human) university (Baghdad, Mustansiriya). Additionally, the research aims to identify the prevalence of emotional pattern and to identify the relationship between perceptual speed and the emotional patterns among university students. The researcher designed a questionnaire to measure the Emotional Patterns based on Jerome Freedman perspective. As for perceptual speed, the researcher adopted French, Extrom and Price scale (1963), which was tran