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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 09 2025
Journal Name
Oxidation Communications
SYNTHESIS AND SPECTRAL CHARACTERISATION, MOLECULAR DOCKING, AND ANTIOXIDANT ACTIVITIES OF NOVEL METAL COMPLEXES AND THEIR NANOCOMPLEXES DERIVED FROM AN ISATIN-BASED SCHIFF BASE
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Ieee Access
Smart Routing Management Framework Exploiting Dynamic Data Resources of Cross-Layer Design and Machine Learning Approaches for Mobile Cognitive Radio Networks: A Survey
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect Altsoam and add ammonium chloride and sodium Pkarbinat in some drinking water productivity and physiological traits of male chicken meat thermally stressful
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The use of male mothers fur c meat Fabro to learn Effect concentrations of ammonium chloride NH4CL and Bacarbonnat sodium NaHCO3 in drinking water by heat stress and Altsoam during heat stress on some of the qualities of productivity and Alvesrgih divided animals to 6 transactions, namely: - control without adding NH4CL, NaHCO3 and Altsoam (treatment 1) Altsoam-1200 of 7-4 weeks old chicken meat to heat patrol 25-34-25 .. 7 weeks old Weight was measured gravimetric vivo increase feed consumption

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Density, Viscosity and Refractive Index of the Ternary System (Ethanol + N-Hexane +3-Methyl Pentane) at 20, 30, 40 °C and 101.325 Kpa
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Experimental densities, viscosities η, and refractive indices nD data of the ternary  ethanol+ n-hexane + 3-methyl pentane system have been determined at temperatures 293.15,303.15 and 313.15 K and at atmospheric pressure then these properties were calculated theoretically by using mixing rules for densities, viscosities and refractive indices .After that the theoretical data and the experimental data were compared due to the high relative errors in viscosities an equation of viscosity was proposed to decrease the relative errors.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 20 2023
Journal Name
Migration Letters
Women's Image in Arabic Songs (An Analytical Study of how Women Appear in the Most Viewed Songs on YouTube for the Year 2021)
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Ordinary Methods (LS,IV) and Robust Methods (2SWLS,LTS,RA) to estimate the Parameters of ARX(1,1,1) Model for Electric Loads
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Abstract:

The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers ​​that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators  is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good  estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Analysis of Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer by Forced Convection in Channel with one-sided Semicircular Sections and Filled with Porous Media
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This research presents a numerical study to simulate the heat transfer by forced convection as a result of fluid flow inside channel’s with one-sided semicircular sections and fully filled with porous media. The study assumes that the fluid were Laminar , Steady , Incompressible and inlet Temperature was less than Isotherm temperature of a Semicircular sections .Finite difference techniques were used to present the governing equations (Momentum, Energy and Continuity). Elliptical Grid is Generated using Poisson’s equations . The Algebraic equations were solved numerically by using (LSOR (.This research studied the effect of changing the channel shapes on fluid flow and heat transfer  in two cases ,the first: cha

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of cellular immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani comparing with cellular immune response against chicken Red Blood Cells.
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The Evaluation of the immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani was determined in this study, particularly, the cellular immune response. Follow up has maintained to determine the Delayed Type of Hypersensitivity using skin test both in infected and control lab animals. Chicken red blood cells were used as a parameter to evaluate the immune system; they are dull and have the ability of immunization. Two concentrations of chicken R.B.C were examined to determine which gives the higher titration in Hamsters and those were 1.5 X 109 cell/ml and 3 X 109 cell/ml , the second concentration gave the maximum titration where then used in this work. After sensitization with Chicken R.B.C for both infected a

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Electrochemical Polymerization and Biological Activity of 4-(Nicotinamido)-4-Oxo-2-Butenoic Acid as An Anticorrosion Coating on A 316L Stainless Steel Surface
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In this study, poly4-(nicotinamido)-4-oxo-2-butenoic acid (PNOE) was prepared by the electro polymerization of 4-(nicotinamido)-4-oxo-2-butenoic acid (NOE) monomer on a 316 stainless steel (St.St) which acts as an anticorrosion coating.  Fourier transforms infrared (FTIR), atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and cyclic voltammetry were used to diagnose the structure and the properties of the prepared polymer layer. The corrosion behavior of the uncoated and coated 316  St.St were evaluated by using an electro chemical polarization technique in 0.2 M hydrochloric acid  solution as a corrosive medium at a temperature range of 293 to 323 K. Nano materials, such as nano ZnO and graphene were added in di

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2009
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
Complexeation Behavior of CoII, NiII, CuII, ZnII, and CdII Ions Toward Schiff Base Derived From 2, 4-Dihydroxy Benzaldehyde and O-Phenylene Diamin
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The aim of this work covers the synthesis and characterization of the new tertra dentate ligand (H4L) containing (N and O) as donor set atoms kind (N2O2) where: H4L=Bis-1,2 (2,4- dihydroxybenzylediene phylinediamine . The preparation of ligand contains reaction 2, 4 - Dihydroxy benzaldehyde and o-phenylene diamine . Schiff base was reacted with some metal ions in the presence of methanol to give the complexes in the general formula [M (H2L)] where: MII = Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd. All compounds were characterized by spectroscopic methods I.R , U.V.-Vis, metal content and molar conductivity measurements, showed that the complexes are non-electrolyte. The proposed geometry for all of the proposed complexes was a tetrahedral while Ni complex was squa

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