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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effect of Obesity and Socioeconomic Status on Adolescents' High School Students' Intelligence Quotient in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): To determine the effect of obesity and socioeconomic status upon adolescents' high school students' intelligence quotient in Baghdad City. Methodology: A descriptive design is carried throughout the study to determine the effect of obesity and socioeconomic status on adolescents' high schools students' intelligence quotient in Baghdad City for the period of January 7th 2017 to May 29th 2017. A non-probability, purposive sample, of (120) high school students, is selected. The sample is comprised of (12) students from 7th grade, (26) students from 8 th grade, (14) students from 9th grade, (3

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance System's Structure at Al-Russafa Health Directorate in Baghdad City
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Objective: evaluation of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance (AFP) System's Structure at Al-Russafa Health directorate in Baghdad City. Methodology: descriptive study using evaluation approach conducted to measure the efficiency of AFP Surveillance System structure for period from November 27th 2014 to June 30th 2015. The study adopted the non-probability multi-stage sampling approach. As nineteen health facilities under surveillance are chosen and interview is conducted with a total of 50 health worker how are involved in the AFP Surveillance System. The data are gathered from sample by using question

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Poisson Regression and Conway Maxwell Poisson Models Using Simulation
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Regression models are one of the most important models used in modern studies, especially research and health studies because of the important results they achieve. Two regression models were used: Poisson Regression Model and Conway-Max Well-  Poisson), where this study aimed to make a comparison between the two models and choose the best one between them using the simulation method and at different sample sizes (n = 25,50,100) and with repetitions (r = 1000). The Matlab program was adopted.) to conduct a simulation experiment, where the results showed the superiority of the Poisson model through the mean square error criterion (MSE) and also through the Akaiki criterion (AIC) for the same distribution.

Paper type:

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Strategic Intelligence in High performance organization A Survey Study for the Managers of Diseases and Kidney Transplant Center/ Medicine City-Baghdad
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The topic of strategic intelligence is considered as important topics that acquires the attention of organizations, Because of its role in supplying the decision-making centers by strategic ideas according to the opportunities and threats facing the organization, in an effort to improve the performance of their organizations to reach the high performance organization.

A lot of organizations lack to strategy guides the strategic intelligence towards achieving high performance organization.

This research aims to determine the level of strategic intelligence that characterized the leaders of diseases and kidney transplant center in Medicine city. What is the application level of the

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Sources of Work-Related Stress among Nurses Working at Psychiatric Wards in Hospitals of Baghdad City
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Objectives: The study intends to identify the sources of work-related stress that might face the nurses working at
psychiatric wards in Baghdad psychiatric hospitals and to find out a relationship between the levels of stress and
some demographic characteristics.
Methodology: A descriptive study was achieved from the 10th of December, 2013 through the 10th of March, 2014.
Non-probability purposive samples of 94 nurses who work in psychiatric wards of Baghdad psychiatric hospitals
were recruited to meet the study objectives. Psychological Stress Inventory (PSI) the Arabic version, which was
modified by Abu Al-Hussein (2010) (20), was used. Data were analyzed by using the statistical analysis program of
SPSS 19th versi

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Education Program on Nurses' Knowledge toward Hemodialysis at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): 1- Assess the effectiveness of health educational program on nurses' knowledge toward Hemodialysis at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals.

 2-To find out the relationship between nurses' knowledge about hemodialysis and their demographic Characteristics.

Methods: The study was designed in a pre-experimental pattern for the nurses' working in the Child Welfare Teaching Hospital and the Child's Central Teaching Hospital, and a targeted sample consisting of (30) nurses was selected. It is tested in three periods of pre-test, the first post-test, and the second post-test. Participants were tested before implementing the tutorial (tutorial lectures

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EXPOSURE TO TELEVISION PROMOTION OF PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THEM / FIELD RESEARCH FOR A SAMPLE OF THE AUDIENCE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD: EXPOSURE TO TELEVISION PROMOTION OF PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THEM / FIELD RESEARCH FOR A SAMPLE OF THE AUDIENCE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD
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A field study was conducted on a sample of the public in Baghdad to study the audience's exposure to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products and their trends in order to determine the rate of exposure of the public to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products according to the theory of uses and rumors and to determine the public's attitudes towards television promotion of pharmaceutical products. A survey of (25) a questions was distributed to a sample of the audience of 150 people. The statistical program SPSS was used to unload the data and for the calculation of frequencies and percentages and correlation coefficients. The research reached several results, Most importantly, the television promotion is well receiv

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Parents' Knowledge about Type I Diabetes Mellitus at Diabetes and Endocrine Treatment Centers in Baghdad City
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Objectives: The current study aims to evaluate parents' knowledge towards diabetes mellitus (type I); to identify the association between parents' knowledge and their demographic characteristics; and to identify the association between parents' knowledge and demographic characteristics of their children. Methodology: Descriptive study carried out during the period from January to April 2015 on purposive sample of 100 parents with their children with diabetes mellitus who attending diabetes and endocrine treatment center. An evaluation tool is constructed by the researcher based on previous literature regarding

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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The use of GIS in the analysis of existing condition of spatial distribution of wire communications network in the city of Baghdad
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The increasing efficiency of the telecommunications network in the city contributes to the increase in spatial interaction between activities (to influence and mutual influence) This study is based on the idea that the upgrading of telephone services provided to citizens are done exclusively through the growth and development of all levels of the service using advanced technologies to know the problems and appropriate solutions in short time and less cost. Thus, crystallized the objectives of the study which was built for the importance of GIS in the planning of services in general, and infrastructure services, in particular, including telephone services, which is represent a point of contact between individuals on the one hand a

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Epidemiological Surveillance of Communicable Diseases in Baghdad City during the Period January-April 2006
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The records of Primary Health Care Centres (Al-Risafa section of Baghdad) were inspected for communicable diseases during the period January-April 2006. There were 8622 recorded cases (the diagnosis was based on a clinical examination and laboratory findings), which were distributed as 4782 (55.5%), 1430 (16.6%), 1604 (18.6%) and 806 (9.3%) for Sadar city, Risafa, A'adhamyiah and Mada'in, respectively. The highest frequency was reported for chicken pox (42.7%), followed by mumps and typhoid fever (20 and 13.7%, respectively), while diphtheria and cholera were not recorded. These three most frequent diseases were further analyzed, and their distribution showed a significant difference (P ? 0.001). April was the month of the highest recorded

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