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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Al-manhaj Library
Multivariate Analysis - Second Edition
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This Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Al-manhaj Library
Multivariate Analysis (Second Edition)
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This Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, LSTM and GRU models in time series hybridization with practical application
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The importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 24 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Accounting For Investments In Joint Projects Accounting to the International Accounting Standard: An applied Study at the General Company for food Stuff Trading
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   As a result of the entry of  multinationals companies in Iraq for investing in the joint projects through conducting agreements and contracts for work on important and strategic projects to get the necessary funds and various experiences which characterize the foreign participant sides that Iraq currently needs them and because of the non-applying the accounting processing stipulated in the unified accounting system in addition to the absence of a local accounting bases as well as the default of the participant contracts on indicating the accounting methods about those projects which are considered one of the bases that enables auditors in the public sector to depend on it, thus the research paper deals with studying an

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparing Weibull Stress – Strength Reliability Bayesian Estimators for Singly Type II Censored Data under Different loss Functions
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     The stress(Y) – strength(X) model reliability Bayesian estimation which defines life of a component with strength X and stress Y (the component fails if and only if at any time the applied stress is greater than its strength) has been studied, then the reliability; R=P(Y<X), can be considered as a measure of the component performance. In this paper, a Bayesian analysis has been considered for R when the two variables X and Y are independent Weibull random variables with common parameter α in order to study the effect of each of the two different scale parameters β and λ; respectively, using three different [weighted, quadratic and entropy] loss functions under two different prior functions [Gamma and extension of Jeffery

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Association Of Arab Universities Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Geological Modeling and Resource Estimation for Mishrif Formation in Nasiriyah Oilfield
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Resource estimation is an essential part of reservoir evaluation and development planning which highly affects the decision-making process. The available conventional logs for 30 wells in Nasiriyah oilfield were used in this study to model the petrophysical properties of the reservoir and produce a 3D static geological reservoir model that mimics petrophysical properties distribution to estimate the stock tank oil originally in place (STOOIP) for Mishrif reservoir by volumetric method. Computer processed porosity and water saturation and a structural 2D map were utilized to construct the model which was discretized by 537840 grid blocks. These properties were distributed in 3D Space using sequential Gaussian simulation and the variation in

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
A proposed method for cleaning data from outlier values using the robust rfch method in structural equation modeling
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Performance Improvement of Neural Network Based RLS Channel Estimators in MIMO-OFDM Systems
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The objective of this study was tointroduce a recursive least squares (RLS) parameter estimatorenhanced by using a neural network (NN) to facilitate the computing of a bit error rate (BER) (error reduction) during channels estimation of a multiple input-multiple output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) system over a Rayleigh multipath fading channel.Recursive least square is an efficient approach to neural network training:first, the neural network estimator learns to adapt to the channel variations then it estimates the channel frequency response. Simulation results show that the proposed method has better performance compared to the conventional methods least square (LS) and the original RLS and it is more robust a

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reliability Estimation Of Fuzzy Failure Times Of Free Distribution And It Use To Estimate The Fuzzy Reliability Of Mosul Dam
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The way used to estimate the fuzzy reliability differs according to the nature of the information of failure time which has been dealt in this research.The information of failure times has no probable distribution to explain it , in addition it has fuzzy quality.The research includes fuzzy reliability estimation of three periods ,the first one from 1986 to 2013,the second one from 2013 to 2033 while the third one from 2033 to 2066 .Four failure time have been chosen to identify the membership function of fuzzy trapezoid represented in the pervious years after taking in consideration the estimation of most researchers, proffional    geologists and the technician who is incharge of maintaining of Mosul Dam project. B

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of the parameter of the Pareto distribution manual Using the general mediator estimator
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Estimation of the tail index parameter of a one - parameter Pareto model has wide important by the researchers because it has awide application in the econometrics science and reliability theorem.

Here we introduce anew estimator of "generalized median" type and compare it with the methods of Moments and Maximum likelihood by using the criteria, mean square error.

 The estimator of generalized median type performing best over all.

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