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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of matter density distributions, elastic charge form factors and size radii for halo 11Be, 19C and 11Li nuclei
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In this work, the calculation of matter density distributions, elastic charge form factors and size radii for halo 11Be, 19C and 11Li nuclei are calculated. Each nuclide under study are divided into two parts; one for core part and the second for halo part. The core part are studied using harmonic-oscillator radial wave functions, while the halo part are studied using the radial wave functions of Woods-Saxon potential. A very good agreement are obtained with experimental data for matter density distributions and available size radii. Besides, the quadrupole moment for 11Li are generated.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 12 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
Synthesis, Characterization and Study Biological Activity of Some New 1, 3, 4-Thiadiazole and Pyrazolone Derivatives Containing Indole Ring
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This work involves synthesis and characterization of some new 1, 3, 4-thiadiazole or pyrazoline derivatives heterocyclic containing indole ring. The new 2-amino-1, 3, 4-thiadiazole derivatives [IV] and [V] a, b were synthesized by cyclization reaction of 2-methyl-1H-indole-carbothiosemicarbazide [III] in H2SO4 acid or by reaction of indole-3-acetic acid or indole-3-butanoic acid with thiosemicarbazide in the presence of phosphorous oxychloride, respectively. Amide derivatives [VI]-[VIII] were synthesized by the reaction equimolar of 2-amino-1, 3, 4-thiadiazoles and (acetyl chloride, benzoyl chloride, anisoyl chloride and heptanoyl chloride) in DMF and pyridine as accepter. The new pyrazolone derivatives [XI] a, b were synthesized from heati

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Publication Date
Sun May 23 2010
Journal Name
Ibn Al- Haitham J. Fo R Pure & Appl. Sc I
Synthesis, Spectroscopic and Dyeing Performance Studies of Some New Heterocyclic Azo Dyes and Their Complexes with Selected Metal Ions
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Coupling reaction of m-and p- amino acetop henone and p-amino benzoic acid with (LHistidine) gave the new bidentate azo ligands (L1, L2 and L3). The prepared ligands were identified by FT-IR, UV-Vis, 1HNMR and GC- mass sp ectroscopic technique. Treatment of the prepared ligands with the following metal ions (CoII, NiII, CuII, ZnII, CdII and HgII) in aqueous ethanol with a 1:2 M:L ratio and at optimum pH, yielded a series of neutral complexes of the general formula [M (L)2 Cl2]. The prepared complexes were characterized by using flame atomic absorption, FT-IR, UV-Vis and 1HNMR spectroscopic methods as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. Chloride ion content was also evaluated by (Mohr method). The nature of the com

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2023
Journal Name
Drug And Chemical Toxicology
Single and repeat-dose toxicity and local tolerance assessment of newly developed oil emulsion adjuvant formulations for veterinary purposes
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimate Antimicrobial activity and Anti-biofilm formation of bark Cinnamomum zeylanicum on Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated from Urinary Tract Infections
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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Non-Destructive Damage Assessment of Five Layers Fiber Glass / Polyester Composite Materials Laminated Plate by Using Lamb Waves Simulation
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Composite materials are widely used in the engineered assets as aerospace structures, marine and air navigation owing to their high strength/weight ratios. Detection and identification of damage in the composite structures are considered as an important part of monitoring and repairing of structural systems during the service to avoid instantaneous failure. Effective cost and reliability are essential during the process of detecting. The Lamb wave method is an effective and sensitive technique to tiny damage and can be applied for structural health monitoring using low energy sensors; it can provide good information about the condition of the structure during its operation by analyzing the propagation of the wave in the

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
An An Accurate Estimation of Shear Wave Velocity Using Well Logging Data for Khasib Carbonate Reservoir - Amara Oil Field
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Shear and compressional wave velocities, coupled with other petrophysical data, are vital in determining the dynamic modules magnitude in geomechanical studies and hydrocarbon reservoir characterization. But, due to field practices and high running cost, shear wave velocity may not available in all wells. In this paper, a statistical multivariate regression method is presented to predict the shear wave velocity for Khasib formation - Amara oil fields located in South- East of Iraq using well log compressional wave velocity, neutron porosity and density. The accuracy of the proposed correlation have been compared to other correlations. The results show that, the presented model provides accurate

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2016
Journal Name
Basic Education
Synthesis, spectroscopic and biological studies of some lanthanide (ш) nitrate complexes with 1, 1--bis (orthoamino phenyl thio) - methane.
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 13 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Synthesis, Characterization and Anticorrosion Studies of New Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) Schiff Base Complexes
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The research included preparation of new Schiff base (L) by two steps: preparation of precursor [bis(2-formyl-6-methoxyphenyl) succinate] (P) by reacting (3-methoxy salicyl aldehyde) with (succinoyl dichloride) as first step then react the prepared precursor (P) with (ethanethioamide) to have the new Schiff base [bis(2-((ethane thioyl imino) methyl)-6-methoxy phenyl) succinate] (L) as second step. Characterized compounds based on Mass spectra, 1 H, 13CNMR (for ligand (L)), FT-IR and UV spectrum, melting point, molar conduct, %C, %H, and %N, the percentage of the metal in complexes %M, magnetic susceptibility, while study corrosion inhibition (mild steel) in acid solution by weight loss. These measurements proved that by (Oxygen, Nitrogen, a

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 21 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Synthesis, Characterization and Preliminary Anticancer Study of Novel 5-fluorouracil Conjugate with Pyrrolidine Dithiocarbamate as a Mutual Anticancer Prodrug
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 5-Fluorouracil is one of the commonly used chemotherapy drugs in anticancer therapy; unfortunately treatment with 5-FU by solely has many drawbacks  low lipophilicity, low permeability, low molecular weight, and its relatively poor plasma protein binding; also a brief half-life therefore frequent administration is required to maintain the optimal therapeutic plasma level which in addition to its poor selectivity, drug resistance and limited penetration to cancer cells; leads to increased incidence of side-effects to healthy cells/tissues and low response rates. In order to minimize these drawbacks; 5-FU was chemically  conjugated with pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate (PDTC) in a mutual prodrug moiety (S-(9H-purin-6-yl) 3-(

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