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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Project Management Maturity Model to Evaluate Construction Sector -Organizations. Case Study at the Department of buildings - Karkh first
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The education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Applying Scikit-learn of Machine Learning to Predict Consumed Energy in Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, Baghdad, Iraq
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Globally, buildings use about 40% of energy. Many elements, such as the physical properties of the structure, the efficiency of the cooling and heating systems, the activity of the occupants, and the building’s sustainability, affect the energy consumption of a building. It is really difficult to predict how much energy a building will need. To improve the building’s sustainability and create sustainable energy sources to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, estimating the building's energy use is necessary. This paper explains the energy consumed in the lecture building of the Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, University of Baghdad (UOB), Baghdad, Iraq. The weather data and the building construction informati

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental and Theoretical Study of the Energy Flow of a Two Stages Four Generators Adsorption Chiller
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This work is concerned with a two stages four beds adsorption chiller utilizing activated carbon-methanol adsorption pair that operates on six separated processes. The four beds that act as thermal compressors are powered by a low grade thermal energy in the form of hot water at a temperature range of 65 to 83 °C.  As well as, the water pumps and control cycle consume insignificant electrical power. This adsorption chiller consists of three water cycles. The first water cycle is the driven hot water cycle. The second cycle is the cold water cycle to cool the carbon, which adsorbs the methanol. Finally, the chilled water cycle that is used to overcome the building load. The theoretical results showed that average cycle cooling power

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Communicative Integration in New Media: Building a Communicative Model
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The internet, unlike other traditional means of communication, has a flexibility to stimulate the user and allows him to develop it. Perhaps, the reason for the superiority of the internet over other traditional means of communication is the possibility of change and transmission from one stage to another in a short period. This means that the internet is able to move from the use to the development of the use and then the development of means and innovation as the innovation of the internet is a logical product of the interaction of the user with the network. The internet invests all the proposals and ideas and does not ignore any even if it is simple. This is represented in social networking sites which in fact reflects personal emotio

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 21 2023
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability: Tmrees22fr
Modified x-ray analysis size strain plot method to determine the lattice stress and strain energy density of calcium titan oxide (CaTiO3) nanoparticles
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In this research, the size strain plot method was used to estimate the particle size and lattice strain of CaTiO3 nanoparticles. The SSP method was developed to calculate new variables, namely stress, and strain energy, and the results were crystallite size (44.7181794 nm) lattice strain (0.001211), This method has been modified to calculate new variables such as stress and its value (184.3046308X10-3Mpa) and strain energy and its value (1.115833287X10-6 KJm-3).

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed method to estimate missing values in Non - Parametric multiple regression model
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In this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research
Machinery Unit Energy Requirement and Fuel Consumption Tractor in Operation Tillage
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The study was carried out at field agriculture in Baghdad–Iraq in 2015. For purpose evaluated the performance the selected implements tillage, suitable tire pressure and speed tractor under silt clay loam to measured Effective field capacity, Actual Time for plowing One Donam ( hr), Appearance Tillage ( number of clods > 10 cm), Fuel consumption measure in two unit (L/Donam and L/hr) and Machinery Unit Energy Requirement ( kw.hr / Donam). Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications using Least Significant Design 5 % was used. Three factor used in this experiment included Two types of plows included Chisel and Disk plows which represented main plot, Three Tires Inflation Pressure was second fa

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the distribution parameters for the best rates of rainfall in Iraq
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This paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq

 Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit  tests, which are to determine

Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC),  Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Daniel's Model on the Achievement of Chemistry Among Fifth Grade Student
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The aim of this research is to find out the influence of Daniel's model on the skills of the twenty-first century among the students of the scientific-fifth grade at the secondary and preparatory government morning schools for the academic year 2022- 2023. Two groups were chosen out of five groups for the fifth-scientific grade, one of which represents the experimental group that is taught by the Daniel model, and the other is the control group that is taught in the traditional method. The equivalence of the two research groups was verified with a set of variables. As for the research tool, a scale was developed by the researchers for the skills of the twenty-first century, in which they adopted the framework of the Partnership Organizat

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of management principles to Fayol in the implementation of competitive strategies Porter
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This paper aims to review the intellectual to the most important thought leaders administrative and strategic They both (Henry Fayol and Michelle Porter), who forward a lot of ideas that have helped countries in the advancement and progress their economies , has been drawing literature theoretical common border in Contributions ( Fayol ) philosophical and between applications ( Porter ), which reversed strategies of the three ( the leadership of the cost, differentiation, and focus ), so browse search how to apply and use the principles of Fayol in the implementation of strategies competitiveness of Porter, and stems from a problem ( ( to what extent a reflection of the principles ( Fayol) fourteen strategies (Porter ) competitiv

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