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Forecasting the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality with practical application
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In this paper  has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed with a problem of heteroscdastic , passing through the phase estimation using the method of Maximum Likelihood Conditional and on the assumption that the random error is distributed normal distribution with the application on more than one rank for seasonal model, then determine the appropriate rank of the specimen using a variety of standards down to the prediction phase, it has been shown through the application on the study data stages that the best model for predicting volatility is  SGARCH (1,0)(1,0).                

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Application Tools Lean Six Sigma Definition and measurement phases in new product development. In the Electrical Industries State Company. case Study.
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methodology six sigma Help  to reduce defects by solving problems effectively, and works Lean to reduce losses through the flow of the manufacturing process and when integrating these two methodologies (Lean and six sigma), the methodology of Lean six sigma will form the entrance to the organizers of the optimization process and increase the quality and reduce lead times and costs . by focusing on the needs of the customer. this process uses statistical tools and techniques to analyze and improve processes.

 We have conducted this research in the General Company for Electrical Industries and adopted its product (machine cooling water three taps) as a sample for research. In order to determine t

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Application of Groebner Bases to Study a Communication System
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This paper introduces a relationship between the independence of polynomials associated with the links of the network, and the Jacobian determinant of these polynomials. Also, it presents a way to simplify a given communication network through an algorithm that splits the network into subnets and reintegrates them into a network that is a general representation or model of the studied network. This model is also represented through a combination of polynomial equations and uses Groebner bases to reach a new simplified network equivalent to the given network, which may make studying the ability to solve the problem of network coding less expensive and much easier.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.
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The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.

Because the studying of time series can get by building, analysis the models and then forecasting gives the priority for the practicing in different fields, therefore the identification and selection of the model is of great importance in spite of its difficulties.

The selection of a standard methods has the ability for estimation the errors in the estimated the parameters for the model, and there will be a balance between the suitability and the simplicity of the model.

In the analysis of d

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Selection of the initial value of the time series generating the first-order self-regression model in simulation modeAnd their impact on the accuracy of the model
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In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

                  

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 29 2020
Journal Name
Complexity
Training and Testing Data Division Influence on Hybrid Machine Learning Model Process: Application of River Flow Forecasting
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The hydrological process has a dynamic nature characterised by randomness and complex phenomena. The application of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting river flow has grown rapidly. This is owing to their capacity to simulate the complex phenomena associated with hydrological and environmental processes. Four different ML models were developed for river flow forecasting located in semiarid region, Iraq. The effectiveness of data division influence on the ML models process was investigated. Three data division modeling scenarios were inspected including 70%–30%, 80%–20, and 90%–10%. Several statistical indicators are computed to verify the performance of the models. The results revealed the potential of the hybridized s

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the financial failure of Islamic banks using the Altman model, ---- springate model and ---- Sherrod model / an analytical study in Islamic banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Spatial Quantile Autoregressive Model: A Review
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This paper is specifically a detailed review of the Spatial Quantile Autoregressive (SARQR) model that refers to the incorporation of quantile regression models into spatial autoregressive models to facilitate an improved analysis of the characteristics of spatially dependent data. The relevance of SARQR is emphasized in most applications, including but not limited to the fields that might need the study of spatial variation and dependencies. In particular, it looks at literature dated from 1971 and 2024 and shows the extent to which SARQR had already been applied previously in other disciplines such as economics, real estate, environmental science, and epidemiology. Accordingly, evidence indicates SARQR has numerous benefits compar

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Spatial Quantile Autoregressive Model: A Review
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This paper is specifically a detailed review of the Spatial Quantile Autoregressive (SARQR) model that refers to the incorporation of quantile regression models into spatial autoregressive models to facilitate an improved analysis of the characteristics of spatially dependent data. The relevance of SARQR is emphasized in most applications, including but not limited to the fields that might need the study of spatial variation and dependencies. In particular, it looks at literature dated from 1971 and 2024 and shows the extent to which SARQR had already been applied previously in other disciplines such as economics, real estate, environmental science, and epidemiology. Accordingly, evidence indicates SARQR has numerous benefits compar

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Reflection of the application of the IFRSs on financial ratios and performance indicators
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The research aims to delve into the nature of international financial reporting standards and the unified accounting system adopted in the Iraqi environment and financial ratios in the theoretical side. In the practical aspect, the results of some financial ratios of Basrah Gas Company were compared with the adoption of the financial statements prepared on the basis of the consolidated accounting system with the prepared financial statements Based on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The research has reached a number of conclusions, including a difference in the accounting rules and practices between IFRS and the consolidated accounting system in force in Iraq. The adoption of IFRS has led to a decrease in profitabi

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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