Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
The presence of deposition in the river decreases the river flow capability's efficiency due to the absence of maintenance along the river. In This research, a new formula to evaluate the sediment capacity in the upstream part of Al-Gharraf River will be developed. The current study reach lies in Wasit province with a distance equal to 58 km. The selected reach of the river was divided into thirteen stations. At each station, the suspended load and the bedload were collected from the river during a sampling period extended from February 2019 till July 2019. The samples were examined in the laboratory with a different set of sample tests. The formula was developed using data of ten stations, and the other three s
... Show MoreLinear motor offers several features in many applications that require linear motion. Nevertheless, the presence of cogging force can deteriorate the thrust of a permanent magnet linear motor. Using several methodologies, a design of synchronous single sided linear iron-core motor was proposed. According to exact formulas with surface-mounted magnets and concentrated winding specification, which are relying on geometrical parameters. Two-dimensional performance analysis of the designed model and its multi-objective optimization were accomplished as a method to reduce the motor cogging force using MAXWELL ANSYS. The optimum model design results showed that the maximum force ripple was approximatrly reduced by 81.24%compared to the origina
... Show MoreThis article deals with the impact of including transverse ribs within the absorber tube of the concentrated linear Fresnel collector (CLFRC) system with a secondary compound parabolic collector (CPC) on thermal and flow performance coefficients. The enhancement rates of heat transfer due to varying governing parameters were compared and analyzed parametrically at Reynolds numbers in the range 5,000–13,000, employing water as the heat transfer fluid. Simulations were performed to solve the governing equations using the finite volume method (FVM) under various boundary conditions. For all Reynolds numbers, the average Nusselt number in the circular tube in the CLFRC system with ribs was found to be larger than that of the plain abs
... Show MoreThe atmospheric air cold plasma has been used to manufacture gold nanomaterials for treating parasitic leishmaniasis. This study experimentally assessed the treatment of Leishmania parasites (L. donovani and L. tropica) by gold nanoparticles. Specifically, atmospheric pressure nonthermal plasma was generated using different diameters (1.0, 2.8, 3.8 and 4.3 mm) of high voltage electrode. Aqueous gold tetrachloride salts (HAuCl4·4H2O) were used as precursor to produce gold nanoparticles. UV-vis spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction were conducted for characterization of the nanoparticles. The optimum condition (a diameter of 1 mm) was chosen to prepare gold nanoparticles, where the grain size was found to be 17 nm. Accordingly, the nanoparticle
... Show MoreThe interplay of predation, competition between species and harvesting is one of the most critical aspects of the environment. This paper involves exploring the dynamics of four species' interactions. The system includes two competitive prey and two predators; the first prey is preyed on by the first predator, with the former representing an additional food source for the latter. While the second prey is not exposed to predation but rather is exposed to the harvest. The existence of possible equilibria is found. Conditions of local and global stability for the equilibria are derived. To corroborate our findings, we constructed time series to illustrate the existence and the stability of equilibria numerically by varying the different values
... Show MoreLocal and global bifurcations of food web model consists of immature and mature preys, first predator, and second predator with the current of toxicity and harvesting was studied. It is shown that a trans-critical bifurcation occurs at the equilibrium point
In this paper, the general framework for calculating the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator system with an SI type of disease in the prey population, is investigated. The impact of the incubation period delay on disease transmission utilizing a nonlinear incidence rate was taken into account. For the purpose of explaining the predation process, a modified Holling type II functional response was used. First, the existence, uniform boundedness, and positivity of the solutions of the considered model system, along with the behavior of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, are studied. The critical values of the delay parameter for which stability switches and the nature of the Hopf bifurcat
... Show MorePurpose: The present study seeks to examine various history stages in which undergone by the concept of scenarios, and development of this concept to integration with the strategic management practices:
Methodology: The current study relied on a literature review and approach in providing total picture of different stages undergone by this concept.
The main results: the scenarios did not reach maturity in their quest for integration with strategic management, and still need a great effort for the maturation of this thought in the framework of strategic management, and through it can contribute in creating important knowledge evolution.
Originality and value: providing a contemporary model linking the roots of this concept and cu