Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
Abstract
The prevention of bankruptcy not only prolongs the economic life of the company and increases its financial performance, but also helps to improve the general economic well-being of the country. Therefore, forecasting the financial shortfall can affect various factors and affect different aspects of the company, including dividends. In this regard, this study examines the prediction of the financial deficit of companies that use the logistic regression method and its impact on the earnings per share of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The time period of the research is from 2015 to 2020, where 33 companies that were accepted in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a sample, and the res
... Show MoreThe linear segment with parabolic blend (LSPB) trajectory deviates from the specified waypoints. It is restricted to that the acceleration must be sufficiently high. In this work, it is proposed to engage modified LSPB trajectory with particle swarm optimization (PSO) so as to create through points on the trajectory. The assumption of normal LSPB method that parabolic part is centered in time around waypoints is replaced by proposed coefficients for calculating the time duration of the linear part. These coefficients are functions of velocities between through points. The velocities are obtained by PSO so as to force the LSPB trajectory passing exactly through the specified path points. Also, relations for velocity correction and exact v
... Show MorePoverty phenomenon is very substantial topic that determines the future of societies and governments and the way that they deals with education, health and economy. Sometimes poverty takes multidimensional trends through education and health. The research aims at studying multidimensional poverty in Iraq by using panelized regression methods, to analyze Big Data sets from demographical surveys collected by the Central Statistical Organization in Iraq. We choose classical penalized regression method represented by The Ridge Regression, Moreover; we choose another penalized method which is the Smooth Integration of Counting and Absolute Deviation (SICA) to analyze Big Data sets related to the different poverty forms in Iraq. Euclidian Distanc
... Show MoreThe study aims at investigating the effectiveness of the Virtual Library Technology, in developing the achievement of the English Language Skills in the Center of Development and Continuous Education, in comparison with the individual learning via personal computer to investigate the students' attitude towards the use of both approaches. The population of the study includes the participants in the English Language course arranged in the Center. The sample includes 60 students who were randomly chosen from the whole population (participants in English Courses for the year 2009-2010). The sample is randomly chosen and divided into two experimental groups. The first group has learned through classroom technology; while the other group has l
... Show MoreProductivity estimating of ready mixed concrete batch plant is an essential tool for the successful completion of the construction process. It is defined as the output of the system per unit of time. Usually, the actual productivity values of construction equipment in the site are not consistent with the nominal ones. Therefore, it is necessary to make a comprehensive evaluation of the nominal productivity of equipment concerning the effected factors and then re-evaluate them according to the actual values.
In this paper, the forecasting system was employed is an Artificial Intelligence technique (AI). It is represented by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to establish the predicted model to estimate wet ready mixe
... Show MoreThis paper shews how to estimate the parameter of generalized exponential Rayleigh (GER) distribution by three estimation methods. The first one is maximum likelihood estimator method the second one is moment employing estimation method (MEM), the third one is rank set sampling estimator method (RSSEM)The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. Finally using the mean squares error criterion to compare between these estimation methods to find which of these methods are best to the others
Critical buckling and natural frequencies behavior of laminated composite thin plates subjected to in-plane uniform load is obtained using classical laminated plate theory (CLPT). Analytical investigation is presented using Ritz- method for eigenvalue problems of buckling load solutions for laminated symmetric and anti-symmetric, angle and cross ply composite plate with different elastic supports along its edges. Equation of motion of the plate was derived using principle of virtual work and solved using modified Fourier displacement function that satisfies general edge conditions. Various numerical investigation were studied to exhibit a convergence and accuracy of the present solution for considering some design parameters such as edge
... Show MoreThis study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe
Abstract:
Current research has sought to apply the criteria of potential for altmizalaorbi model EFQM 2013 in assessing the performance of the Inspector General's Office/Ministry of health, so as to keep up with a modern and advanced management methods in the evaluation of performance, as well as to link performance to a citizen's life, and it takes him beyond the accepted service capabilities today, but of budget duties between dealers servicing responsibilities and future planning, financial control, competitiveness, human resources needs and maintaining quality and development, as well as the constant quest for continuous improvement, is the spirit of the principle underpinning the European Foundation Quality managemen
... Show MoreThe main purpose of the research is to diagnose the importance of the role that strategic memory plays with its three variables (content, structure, and processes) in helping the human resource department to use the COSO model with its five components (culture and governance, strategy and objectives, performance, communications and information, and feedback) in auditing activities and tasks Her own. As the research problem emphasized the existence of a lack of cognitive perception, of the importance of strategic memory, and the investment of its components in the rationalization of the application of the COSO model. and therefore it can be emphasized that the importance of the research is to provide treatments for problems relate
... Show More