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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship and impact of the Analysis and evaluation jobs with employees performance : Survey study
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        The aim the research that definition on the impact a lot of Analysis and evaluation jobs impact in support the employees performance the property that are Analysis and evaluation jobs is one of the jobs however of the human resource management on organization and the impact footpace big on the chractericties and performance of the people and the impact that success of the organization , And here problem stool of the research in the omission the role for the Analysis and evaluation jobs impact in support the employees performance from the upward management in the organization , Polls were adopted as tools for obtaining data and the Depart

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Sentiment Analysis on Roman Urdu Students’ Feedback Using Enhanced Word Embedding Technique
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Students’ feedback is crucial for educational institutions to assess the performance of their teachers, most opinions are expressed in their native language, especially for people in south Asian regions. In Pakistan, people use Roman Urdu to express their reviews, and this applied in the education domain where students used Roman Urdu to express their feedback. It is very time-consuming and labor-intensive process to handle qualitative opinions manually. Additionally, it can be difficult to determine sentence semantics in a text that is written in a colloquial style like Roman Urdu. This study proposes an enhanced word embedding technique and investigates the neural word Embedding (Word2Vec and Glove) to determine which perfo

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of One-Way Multivariate Analysis of Variance in the Impact of the Database on the Fields of Banking Service in Some Iraqi Banks
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 The purpose of this paper is to recognize the impact of database levels on fields of banking service (provision of remittance services and transfer of funds, save financial deposits, provision of personal loans services) in some of Iraqi banks using one-way multivariate analysis of variance. The paper population consisted of (120) employees, then a random stratified sample of (104) employees was taken. A questionnaire paper consists of (24) items were designed in order to analyze by one-Way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) using SPSS.One of the main findings of the current paper is that there is an impact of database on fields of banking service in Iraqi banks (Al Rafidain and Al Rasheed).

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing the relationship between stock market volatility and economic activity in the USA
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This study examines the dynamic relationship between stock market and economic activity in the United States to verify the possibility of using financial indicators to monitor the turning points in the expected path of future economic activity. Has been used methodology (Johansen - Juselius) for the Co-integration and causal (Granger) to test the relationship between the (S & P 500 , DJ) index  and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States for the period
(1960-2009). The results of the analysis revealed the existence of a causal relationship duplex (two-way) between the variables mentioned. which means the possibility of the use stock market indicators to pre

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Formulating a strategy for the Northern Oil Company(Case Study)
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                  The research aims to present a proposed strategy for the North Oil Company, and the proposed strategy took into account the surrounding environmental conditions and adopted in its formulation on the basis and scientific steps that are comprehensive and realistic, as it covered the main activities of the company (production and exploration activities, refining and refining activities, export and transport of oil, research and development activity, financial activity, information technology, human resources) and the (David) model has been adopted in the environmental analysis of the factors that have been diagnosed according to a

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Investigation, Error Analysis and Application of Joint Quadrature Scheme in Physical Sciences
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In this work, a joint quadrature for numerical solution of the double integral is presented. This method is based on combining two rules of the same precision level to form a higher level of precision. Numerical results of the present method with a lower level of precision are presented and compared with those performed by the existing high-precision Gauss-Legendre five-point rule in two variables, which has the same functional evaluation. The efficiency of the proposed method is justified with numerical examples. From an application point of view, the determination of the center of gravity is a special consideration for the present scheme. Convergence analysis is demonstrated to validate the current method.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
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Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparative Study of Heavy Metals and Trace Elements Concentration in Milk Samples Consumed in Iraq
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The measurements of major and trace elements in different brands of milk powder selected from the Iraqis market via the X-ray fluorescence (XRF) Technique have been studied in the present work. The result of the measurements reveals the high concentrations of sodium, phosphorus, sulfur, chlorine, potassium, calcium and magnesium. Furthermore, low concentrations of aluminum, silicon, iron, bromine, molybdenum, iodine, barium, titanium, manganese, cobalt, chrome, nickel, copper, zinc and lead were detected. Neutron activation analysis (NAA) and Kjeldahl technique were also employed to determine the concentrations of nitrogen. It was found that the nitrogen concentration was in the range of (1.96 - 3.23) % which is within the permissible li

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using the Elzaki decomposition method to solve nonlinear fractional differential equations with the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional operator
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The techniques of fractional calculus are applied successfully in many branches of science and engineering, one of the techniques is the Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM), which researchers did not study with the fractional derivative of Caputo Fabrizio. This work aims to study the Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM) to solve fractional differential equations with the Caputo-Fabrizio derivative. We presented the algorithm of this method with the CF operator and discussed its convergence by using the method of the Cauchy series then, the method has applied to solve Burger, heat-like, and, couped Burger equations with the Caputo -Fabrizio operator. To conclude the method was convergent and effective for solving this type of

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Women's Rape in Iraq between Legislation and Social Norms: A Critical Discourse Analysis
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Recently, women's rape has been a pervasive problem in the Iraqi society. Thus, it has become necessary to consider the role of language and its influence on the common beliefs and opinions about rape in the Iraqi society. Thus, taking into consideration the critical role of language and its impact on the perception of human reality and the social development based on people's beliefs and principles of life has become highly indispensable. Therefore. The aim of this article is to address this problem critically from legislation and social norms in NGOs' reports (2015; 2019) with reference to some provisions from the Iraqi Panel Code (1969; 2010). Therefore, the researchers examine the discursive strategies and ideological viewpoints in t

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The extent to which the content of social and national studies courses is included With interactive thinking maps for the stages of public education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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The present study aimed to identify the extent to which the content of social and national studies courses was included in interactive thinking maps in the educational stages in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and to achieve the goal of the study, the researcher used the descriptive and analytical approach, and the study tool used consisted of a content analysis card; Where it included a list of the types of thinking maps, where the study sample consisted of all social and national studies courses at the elementary and intermediate levels, and it is (12) books for the student in its first and second parts, and after verifying the validity and reliability of the tool, it was applied to the study sample, and the study reached conclusions, inc

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