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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Mon May 21 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Using the Input - Output Model in building the economic plan using the computer
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The origin of this technique lies in the analysis of François Kenai (1694-1774), the leader of the School of Naturalists, presented in Tableau Economique. This method was developed by Karl Marx in his analysis of the Departmental Relationships and the nature of these relations in the models of " "He said. The current picture of this type of economic analysis is credited to the Russian economist Vasily Leontif. This analytical model is commonly used in developing economic plans in developing countries (p. 1, p. 86). There are several types of input and output models, such as static model, mobile model, regional models, and so on. However, this research will be confined to the open-ended model, which found areas in practical application.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Water Crisis and Its Relation to Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Development in Iraq (The Real Causes and Proposed Solutions)
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The conservation of natural resources such as water is one of the areas that sustainable agriculture seeks to preserve, rationalize its use and protect it from pollution, because water is a specific factor for agriculture. Despite Iraq's possession of two international rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, which pour into the Shatt Al-Arab, it suffers from water shortages in recent times, As a result of several reasons combined, including water policies initiated by the riparian countries to reduce the quantities of water coming from the two rivers to Iraq, led by neighbor Turkey through the construction of dams and reservoirs and the establishment of irrigation projects, as well as climate changes from rising temperatures and lo

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Poverty and its Relations to Some Social Variables (Children in the Primary Stage as a Model)
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The phenomenon of poverty is one of the most important phenomena facing the world at large. Despite the tremendous technological progress witnessed by mankind and despite the unprecedented high levels of world economic production, poverty remains the greatest challenge facing the world. Statistics and studies have shown that poverty is caused by several problems: (health, social, economic, educational, etc.) These problems are obstacles to the ability to obtain employment opportunities, which leads in the beginning to the growth phenomenon of unemployment, and ultimately to the growth of poverty.

The results of a range of research in the field of psychology have confirmed that children from poor homes suffer from a high level of

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The compatibility of the Development Fund for Iraq to the requirements of sovereign wealth funds An analytical study of the legal framework and institutional structure in accordance with the standards of the Santiago
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Sovereign wealth funds have attracted the attention of the governments of the oil and non-oil countries alike, with a variation of the size of those funds to those states, based on the size of the financial surpluses resulting from Alriadat oil or foreign reserves, or state revenues for other sovereign assets. Raj use these funds remarkably during the financial crises the world has seen, including the crisis of 2008-2007., And Iraq is a oil-producing countries, which has the third largest reserves of crude oil (Crude Oil) at the level of the Arab world and of 140 300)) million barrels after Saudi Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the fourth reserves of crude oil in the world after issued Venezuela to the reserve

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimation levels of CTHRC1and some cytokines in Iraqi patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis
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Collagen triple helix repeat containing-1 (CTHRC1) is an essential marker for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), but its relationship with pro-inflammatory, anti-inflammatory, and inflammatory markers has been scantily covered in extant literature. To evaluate the level of CTHRC1 protein in the sera of 100 RA patients and 25 control and compare levels of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin 10 (IL-10), RA disease activity (DAS28), and inflammatory factors. Higher significant serum levels of CTHRC1 (29.367 ng/ml), TNF-α (63.488 pg/ml), and IL-10 (67.1 pg/ml) were found in patient sera as compared to that in control sera (CTHRC1 = 15.732 ng/ml, TNF-α = 33.788 pg/ml, and IL-10 = 25.122 pg/ml). There was no significant correlation be

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Governance and role in increasing the tax outlet in Iraq
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The goal of the research is to highlight the role of the governance and its characteristics in increasing the tax outcome by implementing the laws, regulations and annual controls issued annually from the general authority for taxation for the financing of the general treasury of the state, Additional development and economic capacity, As the search shares a view of the governance and its characteristics and its ideas from increasing tax output. The analytical transparent approach was used by adopting the practice of practicalities of the general authority for tax For quotations in the senior cabinet section ,the revealing of the ongoing operations was relied on the revenue for each financial year, The tools adopted in the process of ana

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Food problem in Iraq: Challenges and Antiquities.: Food problem in Iraq: Challenges and Antiquities.
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Research Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 22 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Antibacterial, Antiheamolytic, and Antioxidant Activities of Laurus nobilis and Alhagi maurorum Native to Iraq.
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Ethanolic crude extracts of leaves from Laurus nobilis and Alhagi maurorumfor were screened for alkaloids, saponins, tannins, anthraquinones, steroids, flavonoids, glycosides, and glucosides contents. Biochemical activities, including antibacterial activity, antioxidant, and antihemolytic activity, were investigated. Antibacterial activity against Three types of pathogenic bacteria was detected by disc diffusion analysis and characterized by zone of inhibition (ZOI). Antioxidant properties were determined by a diphenyl-1- picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) method. Results revealed that the inhibitory activity of the plants against G+ve and G-ve bacteria were different, where the greatest ZOI  of  Alhagi maurorum a

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation Age and Gender for General Census of the population in Iraq by using nonparametric Bayesian Kernel Estimators
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The process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Annals Of Parasitology
Evaluation the therapeutic efficacy of different concentration of amphotericin B drug in mice infected with visceral leishmaniosis
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Liposomal amphotericin B (Amph B) has been used effectively to treat leishmaniosis, in spite of its high toxicity appeared in some patients. In our study, Amph B was administered in Leishmania donovani that infected BALB/c male mice using different concentrations to evaluate its efficacy challenge against infection as well as its effect in modulating immunity of the host. We observed that low doses with short duration of Amph B as a therapy regime significantly enhanced the induction of Th1 cytokine (INF-γ), but suppressed Th2 cytokine (IL-10) production. Groups of mice infected with L. donovani and treated with Amph B showed clearly increasing in INF-γ level and reduction in IL-10 level in concentration (3, 4, 5 mg/ml/kg) with best resul

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