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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-nahrain University
Synthesis and Characterization of Some New 1,2,3-Triazole, Pyrazolin-5-one and thiazolidinone Derivatives
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Five membered heterocyclics derivatives were synthesized in this work by three routes. The first route includes the synthesis of N-benzoic acid 1,2,3,-triazole derivatives (3),(4) by diazotation of methyl-2-amino benzoate and treating the resulted salt (1) with sodium azide and ethyl acetoacetate or acetyl acetone, respectively. In the second route, derivatives of pyrazole (8) pyrazolin-5-one (9), (10) were prepared by the reaction of the salt (1) with some active methylene compounds to give the corresponding hydrazones derivatives (5-7) which then they were treated with hydrazine hydrate. The third route afforded the synthesis of three derivatives (12), (15a), (15b) of thiazolidinone by two different methods. AII compounds were confirmed b

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECTS OF LIVE BODY WEIGHT AND LEPTIN CONCENTRATION ON IRAQI CHICKENS FERTILITY AND HATCHABILITY
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This Study was conducted out at the Ministry of Agriculture's Poultry Research Station/Animal Resources Department/Agricultural Research Center. To see how body weight (BW) and leptin hormone (LEP) levels in breeder blood affect fertility and hatchability. 140 Iraqi local laying chickens (120 females + 20 males) aged 28 weeks were used in the study. Following the numbering of females, the birds were grown in individual cages and dispersed sequentially on cages. The experiment was divided into three periods, each lasting 28 days, during which the breeder's live body weight was recorded and divided into two categories (greater than 1.5 kg and less than 1.5 kg), and blood samples were collected at the end of each period to determine th

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Microbiology
Production, Characterization, and Antimicrobial Activity of Mycocin Produced by<i>Debaryomyces hansenii</i>DSMZ70238
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The present study was conducted to estimate the antimicrobial activity and the potential biological control of the killer toxin produced byD. hanseniiDSMZ70238 against several pathogenic microorganisms. In this study, the effects of NaCl, pH, and temperature, killer toxin production, and antimicrobial activity were studied. The results showed that the optimum inhibitory effect of killer toxin was at 8% NaCl, and the diameters of clear zones were 20, 22, 22, 21, 14, and 13 mm forStaphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pyogenes, Candida albicans,andCandida neoformans, respectively. The largest inhibition zones were

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Electrical Systems
AI-Driven Prediction of Average Per Capita GDP: Exploring Linear and Nonlinear Statistical Techniques
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Average per capita GDP income is an important economic indicator. Economists use this term to determine the amount of progress or decline in the country's economy. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them with each other. Average per capita GDP income was first studied using the Time Series (Box Jenkins method), and the second is linear and non-linear regression; these methods are the most important and most commonly used statistical methods for forecasting because they are flexible and accurate in practice. The comparison is made to determine the best method between the two methods mentioned above using specific statistical criteria. The research found that the best approach is to build a model for predi

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 22 2022
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Measurement of inflammation and oxidative stress biomarkers induced by cigarette smoke among Iraqi smokers.
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To determine the association between cigarette smoking and oxidative stress, a study was conducted in the period from January 2020 to April 2021, at College of Medicine, Al-Nahrain University, Baghdad, Iraq. The Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique was utilized for measurement the antioxidant enzymes including: Glutathione superoxide (GPX) and catalase (CAT) and the biomarker of lipid peroxidation Malondialdehyde (MDA). Also, the gene expression of Nrf2 and HO-1were determined by using RT-PCR technique. The results indicate lower level of both GPX and CAT (p ≤ 0.001) in smokers compared with non-smokers. While the result of MDA indicate higher level in smokers (p≤0.001) compared with nonsmokers. The Nrf2 and HO-1 gene exp

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Tropical Journal Of Natural Product Research
Purification and Characterization of Bacterial Nanocellulose Produced by Gluconobacter 5AC Isolate from Apple Vinegar
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Specific microorganisms can produce bacterial nanocellulose (BNC), with acetic acid bacteria (AAB) being the most active producer. The family Acetobacteraceae includes the obligate aerobic, motile acetic acid bacteria. The BNC has attracted a lot of interest across a wide range of industries, including pharmaceuticals, due to its flexible characteristics, properties, and advantages. The present study was conducted to purify and characterize BNC produced from AAB isolated from apple vinegar. Bacterial nanocellulose was synthesized using a natural date palm liquid medium at pH 6 at 30°C for 8–10 days. The bacterial cellulose produced was then purified using a technique involving 0.1 M sodium hydroxide. To ascertain the surface mor

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-nahrain University
Synthesis and Liquid Crystalline Behavior of New Amides and Esters Containing 7,1-Thiazole Ring
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Synthesis and study liquid crystalline properties of new compounds with terminal groups of amides ([III]a-c,[IV]a-c and [VI]n), alkoxy series[V]n or ester with azo linkage ([IX]a-c and[X]a-c) containing thaizole ring. These series were synthesized by many steps starting from 4- hydroxyacetophenone or 4-aminoacetophenone. The synthesized compounds were characterized using melting points, FTIR, C.H.N.S analysis and for some of them 1H NMR spectroscopy. The liquid crystalline properties were studied by hot stage polarizing microscopy and differential scanning calorimetry DSC. All compounds of series [III]a-c,[IV]a-c and compounds [V]n showed enantiotropic liquid crystal. While the series [VI]n showed nematic mesomorphism except [VI]8 did not s

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Biogas Recovery from Anaerobic Co-Digestion of Poultry House Wastes for Clean Energy Production
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Anaerobic digestion is a technology widely used for treatment of organic waste for biogas production as a source for clean energy. In this study, poultry house wastes (PHW) material was examined as a source for biogas production. The effects of inoculum addition, pretreatment of the substrate, and temperature on the biogas production were taken into full consideration. Results revealed that the effect of inoculum addition was more significant than the alkaline pretreatment of raw waste materials. The biogas recovery from inoculated waste materials exceeds its production from wastes without inoculation by approximately 70% at mesophilic conditions. Whereby, the increase of biogas recovery from pretreated wastes was by 20% higher than its

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 10 2024
Journal Name
Pharmacia
Molecular docking, ADMET, synthesis and evaluation of new indomethacin hydrazide derivatives as antibacterial agents
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Bacterial infections pose an ongoing challenge due to resistance developed by infectious bacteria. So much research targeting designing new antibacterials is published annually. Our goal is to synthesize compounds that have given antibacterial activity according to molecular docking against the chosen target protein and that have acceptable ADMET properties that can be synthesized and used in the future. New 2-(5-methoxy-1-(4-chlorobenzene)-2-methyl-1H-indol-3-yl)acetohydrazide derivatives’ antibacterial efficacy against two common strains of Gram-negative and Gram-positive microorganisms has been developed, produced, and investigated. Sophisticated, modern analytical methods, including ATR-FTIR and 1H NMR spectroscopy, were used

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of Artificial Aging Test on PEEK CAD/CAM Fabricated Orthodontic Fixed Lingual Retainer
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Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of in vitro long-term simulation of oral conditions on the bond strength of PEEK CAD/CAM lingual retainers.

Material and methods: The sample consisted of 12 PEEK CAD/CAM retainers each composed of 2 centrally perforated 3x4mm pads joined by a connector. They were treated by 98% sulfuric acid for 1 minute and then conditioned with Single Bond Universal and bonded to the lingual surface of premolar teeth by 3M Transbond TM System. Half of the retainers were artificially aged using a 30-day water storage and 5000 thermocycling protocol before bond strength testing to compare with the non-aged specimens.

Results: The artificially aged retainers showed a marginally

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