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Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Antibacterial Activity Of ternary semiconductor compounds AgInSe2 Nanoparticles Synthesized by Simple Chemical Method
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Radiological Assessment and Mechanical Separation of NORM Contaminated Soil from Iraqi Oil Fields
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Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) contaminated sites at Al-Rumaila Iraqi oil fields have been characterized as a part of soil remediation project. Activity of radium isotopes in contaminated soil have been determined using gamma spectrometer High Purity Germanium detector (HPGe) and found to be very high for Al-Markezia, Al-Qurainat degassing stations and storage area at Khadhir Almay region. The activity concentration of samples ranges from 6474.11±563.8 Bq/kg to 1232.5±60.9 Bq/kg with mean value of 3853.3 Bq/kg for 226Ra, 843.59±8.39 Bq/kg to 302.2±9.2 Bq/kg  with mean value of 572.9 Bq/kg for 232Th and 294.31±18.56 Bq/kg to 156.64±18.1 Bq/kg with mean value of 225.5 for 40K. S

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 31 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Wasit For Science And Medicine
Synthesis, Characterization and Antimicrobial Study of Polyacetal-Co complex/Nano Chitosan polymer blend
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Polycyclicacetal was prepared by the reaction of PEG with 4-nitrobenzaldehyde. Cobalt was used for producing a polymer metal complex and solution casting was used to produce a polymer blend including nano chitosan. All produced compounds have been characterized by FT-IR, DSC/ TGA, and SEM techniques as well as biological activity. The production of polyacetal is illustrated by the FT-IR analysis. The DSC/TGA results indicate the prepared polymer blends' thermal stability. Staphylococcus aureas, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Bacillus subtilis, and Escherichia coli were the four types of bacteria selected to study and evaluate the antibacterial activity of produced polyacetal, its metal complex, and polymer blend. Results indicates that ther

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Post-Fire Behavior of Post-Tensioned Segmental Concrete Beams under Monotonic Static Loading
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This paper presents a study to investigate the behavior of post-tensioned segmental concrete beams that exposed to high-temperature. The experimental program included fabricating and testing twelve simply supported beams that divided into three groups depending on the number of precasting concrete segments. All specimens were prepared with an identical length of 3150 mm and differed in the number of the incorporated segments of the beam (9, 7, or 5 segments). To simulate the genuine fire disasters, nine out of twelve beams were exposed to a high-temperature flame for one hour. Based on the standard fire curve (ASTM – E119), the temperatures of 300◦C (572◦F), 500◦C (932◦F), and 700◦C (1292◦F) were adopted. Consequently,

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences
Novel Candidate Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of ERCC2 Gene that Influence Colorectal Cancer Susceptibility
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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common gastrointestinal malignancy and one of the top ten common cancers worldwide with approximately 2 million cases. There are multiple risk factors that could lead to CRC emergence; of which are genetic polymorphisms. Excision repair cross-complementing group 2 (ERCC2) gene encodes for ERCC2 enzyme which plays a crucial role in maintaining genomic integrity by removing DNA adducts. Several studies suggested that there could be a link between genetic polymorphisms of ERCC2 gene and the risk of CRC development. Hence the present study aims to validate the relationship between the following ERCC2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs13181, rs149943175, rs530662943, and rs1799790) and CRC susceptibility. A t

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Improve Akaike’s Information Criterion Estimation Based on Denoising of Quadrature Mirror Filter Bank
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Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) is a popular method for estimation the number of sources impinging on an array of sensors, which is a problem of great interest in several applications. The performance of AIC degrades under low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). This paper is concerned with the development and application of quadrature mirror filters (QMF) for improving the performance of AIC. A new system is proposed to estimate the number of sources by applying AIC to the outputs of filter bank consisting quadrature mirror filters (QMF). The proposed system can estimate the number of sources under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 07 2015
Journal Name
World Journal Of Experimentalbiosciences
Biofilm formation and antibiotic susceptibility for clinical and environmental isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa
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Pseudomonas aeruginosa is emerging opportunistic clinical pathogens. Clinical isolates of P. aeruginosaresist wide spectrum of antibiotics and form biofilm. The comparison study between clinical and environmental of P. aeruginosa in terms of biofilm formation and antibiotic resistance is very scanty. Thus, in current study microtiter plate technique was used to measure the biofilm formation by several clinical and environmental isolates. Moreover, the antibiotic susceptibility of these bacteria was evaluated by VITIK 2 techniques. The relationship between the antibiotic susceptibility and biofilm formation was evaluated for clinical and environmental isolates. Clinical and environm

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 16 2006
Journal Name
No Journal
Novel Metal Complexes of Tetradentate Ligands Type N2S2 Synthesis and Physico-Chemical Characterisation
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This study is included the preparation of two tetradentate amide-thiol proligands of the general structure [H2Ln], [where; (n = (1–2)]. The ligands [H2L1] and [H2L2] have been prepared from the reaction of the cyclic thioester 2-oxo-1, 4-dithiacyclohexane (compound 1) and 3-chloro-2-oxo-1, 4 dithiacyclohexane (compound 2) with 2-aminomethanepyridine in (1:1) ratio respetively. The reaction was carried out in chloroform at room temperature and under N2 atmosphere. Structural formula of these two ligands have been reported.

Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of food on growth and fecundity Brine Shrimp Artemia spp. laboratory Conditions
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This in order to test the effect of food on growth and fecundity, two kinds of food have been used the algae Scendesmus quadricaudae and fresh water shrimp powder. For two generations, growth and productivity have been followed up. The fresh water shrimp has been noticed as a food better than algae, because it caused recording, for the two generation higher length rate for the weeks of experiment. The individuals length rate at the end of the forth week reached 9.35 and 9.48 mm for the first generation and second generation respectively. The average length weekly increase rate for the first and second generations individuals feeding on dried shrimp was higher through the first and second week compared to what was recorded when feeding alga

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 05 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Estimation of Some Mechanical Soil Properties from Static and Dynamic Plate Load Tests ‫
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