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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 12 2025
Journal Name
2025 7th International Conference On Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation And Energy Efficiency (summa)
Comparative Analysis of Robust Strategies for an Electro-hydraulic Servo Valve System
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PID (proportional-integral-derivative) and Mu controllers are widely used in electro-hydraulic servo systems due to their effectiveness and ease of implementation. This paper explores using particle swarm optimization (PSO) for tuning traditional and robust PID controllers, along with D-K iteration for Mu controller tuning. Three controller types: conventional PID (CPID), robust PID (RPID), and structured singular value controllers are developed, while analyzing multiplicative uncertainty with six uncertain coefficients. Their findings indicated that both PID (CPID and RPID) and Mu controllers maintained system stability. Notably, the Mu controller can handle coefficient uncertainty without a pure integral term, while the RPID controller de

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Theoretical Analysis of Seepage through Homogeneous and Non-homogeneous Saturated-Unsaturated Soil
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In this research, the program SEEP / W was used to compute the value of seepage through the homogenous and non-homogeneous earth dam with known dimensions. The results show that the relationship between the seepage and water height in upstream of the dam to its length for saturated soil was nonlinear when the dam is homogenous. For the non-homogeneous dam, the relationship was linear and the amount of seepage increase with the height of water in upstream to its length. Also the quantity of seepage was calculated using the method of (Fredlund and Xing, 1994) and (Van Genuchten, 1980) when the soil is saturated – unsaturated, the results referred to that the higher value of seepage when the soil is saturated and the lowe

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Remediation of Oil Production by Matrix Acidizing Method on an Oil Well
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   The remediation oil production by matrix acidizing method on the well named "X" (for confidential reasons) is scrutinized in this paper. Initial production of 1150 bpd, production index of 2.8 STB/Psi/d and permeability of 150md, in 2018 two years down the lane this dropped to 450 bpd, production index 0.7 STB/Psi/d. The declined observed on the production index is trouble shouted and after elimination of (no completion damage/perforation damage), the skin is calculated by carrying out a well test (build-up test) whose extrapolation in excel over times gave us a skin of 40.The reservoir heterogeneity, containing >20% of feldspar, carbonates and paraffin’s guided thematrix acidizing design and treatment proposition to remedy thi

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Desalting of RO Waste and Drainage Water by Direct Contact Membrane Distillation
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Direct contact membrane distillation is an effective method for production of fresh water from saline water. In this study two samples were used as feed solutions; the first one was RO waste from Al-Hilla Coca-Cola Factory (TDS= 2382 mg/l) and the other was Haji Ali drainage water (TDS= 4127 mg/l). Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) hydrophobic membrane supported with polypropylene (PP) was used as flat sheet form with plate and frame cell. Results proved that membrane distillation is an effective technique to produce fresh water with high quality from brine with low salinity content. With membrane area of 8x8 cm2, the volume of treated water decreased from 34.97 ml at first half hour to 33.02 ml after 180 min of

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Phytochemical profile, Antioxidant, Enzyme inhibitory and acute toxicity activity of Astragalus bruguieri
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The medicinal plants (Astragalus species) have been used traditionally as anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and Anti-diabetics. The current research investigates the phytochemistry and some biological activity of methanol extract of different parts of Astragalus bruguieri Bioss., a wild medicinal plant grows on Safeen mountain, Erbil, Iraq. The methanol extracts of A. bruguieri were analyzed for total phenolic, flavonoid, and saponin contents. In-vitro antioxidant activity was analyzed by 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and 2,2'-azino-bis (3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) (ABTS) assays. Furthermore, the plant extracts were examined for in-vitro enzyme inhibitory activity and in-v

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Synthesis, Characterization and Preliminary Anti-inflammatory Evaluation of New Fenoprofen Hydrazone Derivatives
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New hydrazone derivatives of Fenoprofen were synthesized and evaluated for their anti-inflammatory activity by means of egg white induced paw edema method. All the synthesized target compounds were characterized by FT-IR spectroscopy, 1HNMR analysis and by measure of their physical properties. The synthesis of the target compounds(H1-H4) was accomplished by multistep reaction procedures. The synthesized target compounds were show activity in reducing paw edema thickness and their anti-inflammatory effect was comparable to that of the standard (Fenoprofen) except for compound H3 which show anti-inflammatory activity higher than Fenoprofen.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Shot Peening Time Effect on Corrosion Behaviors of Al Alloy 2024-T3
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In this study many specimen s were prepared from 2024-T3 Aluminum alloy for corrosion test by the dimensions of (15*15*3) mm according to ASTM G71-31 and then subjected to shot peening process at different time (15, 30, 45) minutes using steel ball having a diameter of 2.75 mm and Rockwell Hardness of 55RC to induce compressive residual stress which were measured using X-Ray diffraction method, surface roughness and   hardness were tested before and after peening. Electrochemical corrosion test by Tafel extrapolation method was carried out in an environment of 3 .5% NaCl solutions (sea water) where Corrosion rate calculated using Tafle equation.

The obtained results show a favorable influence of SP treatment

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Formulation of Metoprolol Bilayer Tablets as an Oral Modified Release Dosage Form
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Metoprolol is a β1 adrenergic blocker used in treatment of heart diseases. Metoprolol (100mg) tablets was formulated as a modified release oral system utilizing the concept of bilayer system, first layer contained (30mg) as immediate release and the other (70mg) in the sustained release matrix.  The immediate release layer consisted of lactose or microcrystalline cellulose as diluents with sodium starch glycolate or sodium croscarmellose as disintegrants. The result showed that the layer contains microcrystalline cellulose and 2% sodium starch glycolate gave disintegration time similar to that of conventional metoprolol tartrate tablet. This result was subjected in the subsequent preparation of the bilayer tablet. The

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improvement of Earth Canals Constructed on Gypseous Soil by Soil Cement Mixture
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The gypseous soil may be one of the problems that face the engineers especially when it used as a foundation for hydraulic structures, roads, and other structures. Gypseous soil is strong soil and has good properties when it is dry, but the problem arises when building hydraulic installations or heavy buildings on this soil after wetting the water to the soil by raising the water table level from any source or from rainfall which leads to dissolve the gypsum content.

Cement-stabilized soil has been successfully used as a facing or lining for earth channel, highway embankments and drainage ditches to reduce the risk of erosion and collapsibility of soil. This study is deliberate the treatment of gypseous soil by u

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Stethoscope as potential occupational hazards for intra hospital carries of pathogenic microorganisms
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Background: The stethoscope is a tool that doctors use daily in the examination of patients and  it  can take part in the transmission of health care-associated infections. In a single day it may come in direct contact with multiple patients and the intra hospital environment  may be contaminated by various type of bacteria and possibly transmit to others.

Objective:- The study was to know the attitude and knowledge about   the stethoscope hygiene behavior among physicians  and to determine the types of  bacterial agents that can contaminate stethoscopes.

Type of the study: The study was a cross-sectional study

Metho

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