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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Evaluation Antibacterial Activity of Some New Substituted 5-Bromoisatin Containing Five, Six Heterocyclic Ring
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This research includes the synthesis of some new different heterocyclic derivatives of 5-Bromoisatin. New sulfonylamide, diazine, oxazole, thiazole and 1,2,3-triazole derivatives of 5-Bromoisatin have been synthesized. The synthesis process started by the reaction of 5-Bromoisatin with different reagents to obtain schiff bases of 5-Bromoisatin intermediate compounds(1, 8, 19) by using glacial acetic acid as a catalyst in three routes. The first route, 5-Bromoisatin reacted with p-aminosulfonylchloride to product compound(1), then converted to sulfonyl amide derivatives(2-7) by the reaction of compound(1) with different substituted primary aromatic amine in absolute ethanol. The second route includes the reaction of 5-Bromoisatin rea

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-farabi For Engineering Sciences Vol
Prototyping of Multi-Factors Based Vehicle Accident Detection and Reporting System Relying on GPS and GSM
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and some Bayes Estimators for Maxwell Distribution based on Non-informative Priors
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In this paper, Bayes estimators of the parameter of Maxwell distribution have been derived along with maximum likelihood estimator. The non-informative priors; Jeffreys and the extension of Jeffreys prior information has been considered under two different loss functions, the squared error loss function and the modified squared error loss function for comparison purpose. A simulation study has been developed in order to gain an insight into the performance on small, moderate and large samples. The performance of these estimators has been explored numerically under different conditions. The efficiency for the estimators was compared according to the mean square error MSE. The results of comparison by MSE show that the efficiency of Bayes est

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Surface assessment of CNC laser treated commercially pure Titanium and Ti 13 Zr 13 Nb alloy
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This study aimed to evaluate the surface changes of commercial pure Titanium disks (CP Ti) and the Ti 13Nb 13 Zr (Alloy) with a zigzag pattern of laser surface treatment. In vitro, experimental study of CNC Laser treatment on the CP Ti and Alloy disks. Texturing the surfaces of CP Ti and Alloy disks via CNC laser, the sample disks were analyzed using surface roughness, wettability and FESEM. The FESEM revealed a proper increase in the surface texturing and roughness on macro and micro measures without crack formation or dramatic change of the core substance of the CP Ti and Alloy disks. The CNC laser is an effective and suitable method for surface texturing CP Ti and Alloy for dental implantology. Keywords: Commercial pure Titanium;

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 02 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Designed new mesogence containing 5Hthiazolo[3,4-b][1,3,4]ihiadiazole: Synthesis and investigation of liquid crystals properties
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This research include synthesized and characterization the compound [I] by reaction terephthaldehyde , mercaptoacetic acid and thiosemicarbazide with concentrated sulfuric acid then this compound reaction with ethyl chloroacetate and sodium acetate to product ester compound [II],the latter compound reaction with hydrazine hydrate to synthesized acid hydrazide [III] after that reaction with 4-alkoxy benzaldehyde[IV]n to synthesized Schiff bases compounds [V]n, the compound [VI] synthesized via reaction compound [I] with chloroacetic acid and sodium acetate then the compound[VI] reaction with 2-phenylenediamine in 4 N hydrochloric acid to product benzimidazole compound[VII]. The compounds characterized by melting points, FTIR and 1HNMR spectr

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology
GEOMETRIC NONLINEAR TIME DOMAIN SPECTRALMATCHING SEISMIC ANALYSIS OF BASE ISOLATED HIGHRISE BUILDINGS INCLUDING P-DELTA EFFECT
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Time-domain spectral matching commonly used to define seismic inputs to dynamic analysis in terms of acceleration time history compatible with a specific target response spectrum is used in this study to investigate the second-order geometric effect of P-delta on the seismic response of base-isolated high-rise buildings. A synthetic time series is generated by adjusting reference time series that consist of available readings from a past earthquake of the 1940 El Centro earthquake adopted as an initial time series. The superstructure of a 20-story base isolated building is represented by a 3-D finite element model using ETABS software. The results of the base isolated building show that base isolation technique significantly reduces inter-s

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and some Bayes Estimators for Maxwell Distribution based on Non-informative Priors
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In this paper, Bayes estimators of the parameter of Maxwell distribution have been derived along with maximum likelihood estimator. The non-informative priors; Jeffreys and the extension of Jeffreys prior information has been considered under two different loss functions, the squared error loss function and the modified squared error loss function for comparison purpose. A simulation study has been developed in order to gain an insight into the performance on small, moderate and large samples. The performance of these estimators has been explored numerically under different conditions. The efficiency for the estimators was compared according to the mean square error MSE. The results of comparison by MSE show that the efficiency of B

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Intracellular and Extracellular extracts activity of Oscillatoria limnetica and Chroococus minor against some Bacteria and Fangi
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In this study Oscillatoria limnetica and Chroococus minor were isolated ?purified and identification from water canal around Baghdad University Campus. The water of this canals originally from Tigris River. BG-11 culture media was used for their cultivation in suitable laboratory conditions (25c°, 200µE/m2/sec) for 16:8 hrs. Light: dark. Each culture was harvested at the end of exponential phase .Organic solvents used for extraction were Ethanol? Hexane and Methanol 95% to extract the crude active Intracellular and Extracellular substances, and evaporated down to dryness .Antibacterial and antifungal activity of these different extracts were evaluated against 6 strains of gram positive bacteria and gram negative bacteria in additi

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 19 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Isolation and characterization of phosphate solubilizing Pseudomonas species and assess its efficacy as plant growth promoter
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis, anti-bacterial and anti-cancer activities of Some Antipyrine Diazenyl Benzaldehyde Derivatives and AntipyrineBased Heterocycles
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The present study envisaged utilizing 4-aminoantipyrine as key intermediate for the synthesis of some new derivatives bearing anti-bacterial and anti-cancer activities moieties viz., antipyrine diazenyl benzaldehydes 2(ad) which were obtained by coupling of diazotized 4-aminoantipyrine (1) with substituted benzaldehydes at 0◦C (iced) temperature. The other antipyrine derivatives where containing bis heterocycles like bis thiazolidinone-antipyrine (4), bis imidazolidinone -antipyrine (5) and bis azetidinone -antipyrine (6).These compounds were prepared through the reaction between 4- aminoantipyrine and terephthaldicarboxaldehyde to get (3) which were reacted with mercaptoacetic acid , glycine or chloroacetyl chloride separately to get com

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