Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
A series of new 4(3H)-quinazolinone derivatives (S1-S4) were synthesized and characterized by FTIR,1HNMR and 13CNMR .Their cytotoxic activity against a set of human cancer cell lines MCF-7 (breast) and A549 (lung) was evaluated using MTT assay. To detect their selectivity toward cancer cells, the compounds were also tested against epithelial cells derived from normal human fibroblast (NHF). Methotrexate (MTX) was used as a reference for comparison . All the tested compounds exhibited toxicity against the normal cells lower than cancer cells. All the tested compounds displayed higher cytotoxicity against lung cancer cell line (A549) than MTX with the most
... Show MoreBackground:-Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis and the leading source of physical disability in elderly people. The Prevalence of OA is increasing and will continue to do so as the population gets older. The OA is predominantly managed in primary care centers by primary health care physicians and much can be done to alleviate symptoms from osteoarthritis by combinations of therapeutic options including pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments.
Objectives of study :- To assess the knowledge, attitude and practice of Iraqi PHCC physicians in Baghdad, AL-Rusafa, regarding the management of osteoarthritis patient, and it's association with sociodemogra
... Show MoreEmulsion Liquid Membrane (ELM) is an emerging technology that removes contaminants from water and industrial wastewater. This study investigated the stability and extraction efficiency of ELM for the removal of Chlorpyrifos Pesticide (CP) from wastewater. The stability was studied in terms of emulsion breakage. The proposed ELM included n-hexane as a diluent, span-80 as a surfactant, and hydrochloric acid (HCl) as a stripping agent. Parameters such as mixing speed, aqueous feed solution pH, internal-to-organic membrane volume ratio, and external-to-emulsion volume ratio were investigated. A minimum emulsion breakage of 0.66% coupled with a maximum chlorpyrifos extraction and stripping efficiency were achieved at 96.1% and 95.7% at b
... Show MorePolymer metal complexes of poly ethylene glycol acetal and Ag (I), Cu (II), Ni (II), Mn (II), Co (III) and Hg (II) were prepared from the reaction of PEG with aldehyde derived fromErythro-ascorbic acid (pentulosono-ɣ-lactone-2, 3- enedianisoate). All these compounds were characterized by Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC) and FTIR spectra and aldehyde was also characterized by (U.V-Vis), 1HNMR,13CNMR, and mass spectra. It has been established that, the polymer and its metal complexes showedgood activities against four pathogenic bacteria (Escherichia coli , Klebsiellapneumonae,Staphylococcusaureus, Staphylococcus Albus) and two fungal (Aspergillus Niger,Yeast). The polymer metal complexes showed higher activity than the free polymer.Theorder
... Show MoreBiodiesel production process was attracted more attention recently due to the surplus quantity of glycerol (G) as a byproduct from the process. Glycerol Utilization must take in to consideration to fix this issue also, to ensure biodiesel industry sustainability. Highly amount of Glycerol converted to more benefit material Glycerol carbonate (GC) was one of the most allurement compound derived from glycerol by transesterification of glycerol with dimethyl carbonate (DMC). Various parameters have highly impact on transesterification was investigated like catalyst loading (1-5) %wt., molar ratio of DMC: glycerol (5:1 – 1:1), reaction time (30 - 150) min and temperature (40 – 80) ᴼC. The Optimum glycerol carbonate yie
... Show MoreIn this work pyrazolin derivatives were prepared from the diazonium chloride salt of 4-aminobenzoic acid. Azo compounds were prepared from the reaction of an ethanolic solution of sodium acetate and calculated amount of active methylene compound namely, acetyl acetone to obtain the corresponding hydrazono derivative (1). Cyclocondensation reaction of compounds (1) with hydrazine hydrate and phenyl hydrazine in boiling ethanol affording the corresponding pyrazoline-5-one derivatives of 4-aminobenzoic acid (2,3). Then compound (3) was reacted with thionyl chloride to give the corresponding acid chloride derivative(4), followed by conversion into the corresponding acid hydrazide derivative (5) carboxylic acid thiosemicarbazide (11), esters
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to determine the fungal cause and bio control of damping off and root rot of wheat plants by using pseudomonas fluorescens under greenhouse and field conditions. Results showed isolation of eight species from the soil and roots to deferent region of Baghdad government. Rhizoctonia solani (Rs) and Fusarium solani (Fs) were the predominant damping off fungus with frequency 60 and 52% respectively. Led the using of bacteria formulations such as crud suspension , pure bacteria filtration and pure living cells in culture medium inhibit all type fungi with rates ranging from 84-96% , 80- 93% and 75-88% respectively. Rs and Fs were more pathogenesis under greenhouse conditions, with incidence of 80 and 68% and disease s
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