Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Friction stir spot welding (FSSW) is a relatively new welding process that may have significant advantages compared to the fusion processes as follows joining of conventionally non-fusion weldable alloys, reduced distortion and improved mechanical properties of weldable alloys joints due to the pure solidstate joining of metals. In this paper, a three-dimensional model based on finite element analysis is used to study the thermal history in the spot-welding of aluminum alloy 2024. The model take place the thermomechanical property on the process of the welded metals. The thermal history and the evolution results with numerical model at the measured point in the friction stirred spot weld have a good matching, then the prediction of the t
... Show MoreThe present study focused mainly on the buckling behavior of composite laminated plates subjected to mechanical loads. Mechanical loads are analyzed by experimental analysis, analytical analysis (for laminates without cutouts) and numerical analysis by finite element method (for laminates with and without cutouts) for different type of loads which could be uniform or non-uniform, uniaxial or biaxial. In addition to many design parameters of the laminates such as aspect ratio, thickness ratio, and lamination angle or the parameters of the cutout such as shape, size, position, direction, and radii rounding) which are changed to studytheir effects on the buckling characteristics with various boundary conditions. Levy method of classical lam
... Show MoreLow bearing capacity of weak soil under shallow footings represents one of construction problems.
Kaolin with water content converges to liquid limit used to represent the weak soil under shallow
footing prototype. On the other hand, fly ash, which can be defined as undesirable industrial waste
material, was used to improve the bearing capacity of the soft soil considered in this research. The soft
soil was prepared in steel box (36×36×25) cm and shallow square footing prototype (6×6) cm were
used .Group of physical and chemical tests were conducted on kaolin and fly ash. The soft soil was
improved by a bed of compacted fly ash placed under the footing with dimensions equal to that of
footing but with different de
Naproxen is a non steroidal anti inflammatory and antipyretic drug which has local irritation effect on the stomach, and unpleasant taste, besides bad flowability and light sensitivity .The drug was prepared as microcapsules by complex coacervation method using acacia-gelatin coating materials , and aqueous colloid polymer dispersion method ( ACPD ), using ethyl cellulose and sodium alginate coating materials . The results indicated that microcapsules prepared by 2:1 core:wall ratio is the best for both methods, with an average encapsulation efficiency (75%) and avarege yield (90%) .
Moreover the drug release was affected mainly by core : ratio ,pH enviroment and method of microenca
... Show MoreThe inhibitive action of a blend of sodium nitrite/sodium hexametaphosphate (SN+SHMP) on corrosion of carbon steel in simulated cooling water systems (CWS) has been investigated by weight loss and electrochemical polarization technique. The effect of temperature, velocity, and salts concentrations on corrosion of carbon steel were studied in the absence and presence of mixed inhibiting blend. Also the effect of inhibitors blend concentrations (SN+SHMP), temperatures, and rotational velocity, i.e., Reynolds number (Re) on corrosion rate of carbon steel were investigated using Second-order Rotatable Design (Box-Wilson Design) in performing weight loss and corrosion potential approach. Electrochemical polarization measurements
... Show MoreThe fractional free volume (Fh) in polystyrene (PS) as a function of neutron -irradiation dose has been measured, using positron annihilation lifetime (PAL) method. The results show that Fh values decreased with increasing n-irradiation dose up to a total dose of 501.03× 10-2 Gy.
A percentage reduction of 2.14 in Fh values is noticed after the initial n-dose corresponding to a percentage reduction in the free volume equal to 42.14/Gy.
The total n-dose induces a percentage reduction of 7.26, corresponding to a percentage reduction of 1.45/Gy. These results indicate that cross -linking is the predominant process induced by n-irradiation.
The results suggest that n-irradiation induces structure changes in PS, causing cross-linking
This paper presents an improved technique on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm. The procedure is applied on Single Machine with Infinite Bus (SMIB) system with power system stabilizer (PSS) at three different loading regimes. The simulations are made by using MATLAB software. The results show that by using Improved Ant Colony Optimization (IACO) the system will give better performance with less number of iterations as it compared with a previous modification on ACO. In addition, the probability of selecting the arc depends on the best ant performance and the evaporation rate.
Binary mixtures of three heavy oil-stocks had been subjected to density measurments. The data had been aquired on the volumetric behaviour of these systems. The heavy oil-stocks used were of good varity, namely 40 stock , 60 stock, and 150 stock, 40 stock is the lightest one with the API gravity 33.7 while 60 stock is middle type and 150 stock is heavy one, with API gravity 27.7 and 23.8 respectively. Stocks with Kerosene or Xylene for non-ideal mixtures for which excess volume can be positive or negative. Mixture of heavy-oil stocks with paraffinic spike (Kerosene) show negative excess volume. While, aromatic rings results a lower positive excess volume, as shown in Xylene when blending with 40 stock and 60 stock but a negati
... Show MoreThe present work presents a new experimental study of the enhancement of turbulent
convection heat transfer inside tubes for combined thermal and hydrodynamic entry length of one
popular “turbulator” (twisted tape with width slightly less than internal tube diameter) inserted for
fire tube boilers. Cylindrical combustion chamber was used to burn (1.6 to 7kg/h) fuel oil #2 to
deliver hot gases with ranges of Reynolds number (10500 to 21700), and (11400 to 24150) for both
empty and inserted tube respectively.A uniform wall temperature technique was used by keeping
approximately constant water temperature difference (25ºC) between inlet and exit cooling water in
parallel flow shell and tube heat exchanger. The test