Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract:
The research aimed to know favoured mass media for children and
modifying their behaviour ,the child became aquires the information from
mass media that he exposure them without any guidance , where upon the
quidance proqrammes becomes real danger whereas qet out their civil
style and converting to deadly poisons,and because of little study for this
supject the two researchers opined to perform astudy to know the favoured
mass media to the children and what are the mass media that modify their
behavior according to ther parent points of view ,after propring the research
measurement and the suilable statical methods it has shown that there are
mass media affect in children behavior ,they are st
The aim of this study was to increasing natural carotenoides production by a locally isolate Rodotorula mucilagenosa M. by determination of the optimal conditions for growth and production of this agents, for encouragest to use it in food application permute artificial pigments which harmfull for consumer health and envieronmental. The optimal condition of carotenoides production from Rhodotorula mucilaginosa M were studied. The results shows the best carbon and nitrogen source were glucose and yeast extract. The carotenoids a mount production was 47430 microgram ̸ litter and 47460 microgram ̸ litter, respectively, and the optimum temperature was 30°C, PH 6, that the carotenoides a mount was 47470 microgram ̸ litter and 47670 microgr
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The effect of adding raw bacteriocin produced by Lactobacillus bulgaricus to cheese curd at an amount of (5 and 10 and 15) mL/kg cheese as a biological preservative to prolong the shelf life of soft cheese, in addition to the control treatment, knowing that each 1 mL of bacteriocin filter contains 15 units/ mL of bacteriocin. The results of the physicochemical, microbial and sensory tests for cheese stored at refrigerator temperature for a period (zero) to (21) d of adding bacteriocin showed the superiority of the treatment of cheese added to 15 mL/kg cheese of bacteriocin over the rest of the other treatments during the storage period, wh
... Show MoreAbstract Ternary Silver Indium selenide Sulfur AgInSe1.8S0.2 in pure form and with a 0.2 ratio of Sulfur were fabricated via thermal evaporation under vacuum 3*10-6 torr on glasses substrates with a thickness of (550) nm. These films were investigated to understand their structural, optical, and Hall Characteristics. X-ray diffraction analysis was employed to examine the impact of varying Sulfur ratios on the structural properties. The results revealed that the AgInSe1.8S0.2 thin films in their pure form and with a 0.2 Sulfur ratio, both at room temperature and after annealing at 500 K, exhibited a polycrystalline nature with a tetragonal structure and a predominant orientation along the (112) plane, indicating an enhanced de
... Show MoreSewage pumping stations are considered an important part of any sewerage system. Pumps failure in these stations means that the pumps are unable to work at the design requirement (flow capacity and head) and that may cause sewer overflow and flooding leading to sewer deterioration. In this paper, two main sewage pumping stations in Baghdad city were selected as case studies, Al- Habibia and Al-Ghazali located on Zublin trunk sewer 3000 mm and Baghdad trunk sewer 1200-2100 respectively. This study focused mainly on the operation of main sewage pumping stations and their effect, both directly and indirectly, on changing hydraulic properties, which leads to an increase in the deterioration of sewage pipes. The hydraulic analysis was co
... Show MoreThis research presents the possibility of using banana peel (arising from agricultural production waste) as biosorbent for removal of copper from simulated aqueous solution. Batch sorption experiments were performed as a function of pH, sorbent dose, and contact time. The optimal pH value of Copper (II) removal by banana peel was 6. The amount of sorbed metal ions was calculated as 52.632 mg/g. Sorption kinetic data were tested using pseudo-first order, and pseudo-second order models. Kinetic studies showed that the sorption followed a pseudo second order reaction due to the high correlation coefficient and the agreement between the experimental and calculated values of qe. Thermodynamic parameters such as enthalpy change (ΔH
... Show MoreIn this paper, an estimate has been made for parameters and the reliability function for Transmuted power function (TPF) distribution through using some estimation methods as proposed new technique for white, percentile, least square, weighted least square and modification moment methods. A simulation was used to generate random data that follow the (TPF) distribution on three experiments (E1 , E2 , E3) of the real values of the parameters, and with sample size (n=10,25,50 and 100) and iteration samples (N=1000), and taking reliability times (0< t < 0) . Comparisons have been made between the obtained results from the estimators using mean square error (MSE). The results showed the
... Show MoreBackground: Body image is one of the most important psychological factors that affects adolescents’ personality and behavior. Body image can be defined as the person’s perceptions, thoughts, and feelings about his or her body.
Objectives: to identify the prevalence of body image concerns among secondary school students and its relation to different factors.
Subjects and methods: A cross-sectional study conducted in which 796 secondary school students participated and body shape concerns was investigated using the body shape questionnaire (BSQ-34).
Results: The prevalence of moderate/marked concern was (21.6%). Moderate/ marked body shape concern was significantly associated
... Show MoreThin films of highly pure (99.999%) Tellurium was prepared by high vacuum technique (5*10-5torr), on glass substrates .Thin films have thickness 0.6m was evaporated by thermal evaporation technique. The film deposited was annealed for one hour in vacuum of (5*10-4torr) at 373 and 423 K. Structural and electrical properties of the films are studies. The x-ray diffraction of the film represents a poly-crystalline nature in room temperature and annealed film but all films having different grain sizes. The d.c. electrical properties have been studied at low and at relatively high temperatures and show that the conductivity decreases with increasing temperature at all range of temperature. Two types of conduction mechanisms were found to d
... Show MoreThis paper deals with calculate stresses in Knee-Ankle-Foot-Orthosis as a result of the effect vibration during gait cycle for patient wearing KAFO .Experimental part included measurement interface pressure between KAFO and leg due to action muscles and body weigh on Orthosis. also measurement acceleration result from motion of defected leg by accelerometer .Results of Experimental part used input in theoretical part so as to calculate stresses result from applying pressure and acceleration on KAFO by engineering analysis program ANSYS 14.Resultes show stresses values in upper KAFO greater than lower KAFO that is back to muscles more effective in thigh part lead to recoding pressure higher than pressure in shank part.