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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Public Health Research & Development
Antibacterial Activity of <i>Lactobacillus</i> spp. Against <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i>
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 14 2014
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Wetting and drying collapse behaviour of collapsible gypseous soils treated by grouting
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Optical properties of ZnO/MgF2 bilayer thin films prepared by PVD technique
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Zinc Oxide (ZnO) is considered as one of the best materials already used as a window layer in solar cells due to its antireflective capability. The ZnO/MgF2 bilayer thin film is more efficient as antireflective coating. In this work, ZnO and ZnO/MgF2 thin films were deposited on glass substrate using pulsed laser deposition and thermal evaporation deposition methods. The optical measurements indicated that ZnO thin layer has an energy gap of (3.02 eV) while ZnO/MgF2 bilayer gives rise to an increase in the energy gap. ZnO/MgF2 bilayer shows a high energy gap (3.77 eV) with low reflectance (1.1-10 %) and refractive index (1.9) leading to high transmittance, this bilayer could be a good candidate optical material to improve the performance

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 28 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Heat Transfer and Thermal Expansion of Coefficient EP -(MWCNT/x-TiO2)Nanocomposites
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The thermal properties (thermal transfer and thermal expansion coefficient) of the enhanced epoxy resin (MWCNT / x-TiO2) were studied by weight ratios with the values (0%, 3%, 5%, 7% and 10%) and a constant ratio of 3% of MWCNT. The ultrasonic technology was used to prepare the neat and composites which were then poured into Teflon molds according to standard conditions. Thermo-analyzer sensor technology was used to measure thermal transfer (thermal conductivity, thermal flow, thermal diffusion, thermal energy and heat resistance). The thermal conductivity, flow, and thermal conductivity values were increased sequentially by increasing the weight ratio of the filler while the results of stored energy values an

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Spectroscopic and structural properties of Zinc-Phthalocyanine prepared by pulsed laser deposition
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Response Surface Methodology for Development and Optimization of Theophylline Pulmonary Delivery System
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The aim of the present study was to develop theophylline (TP) inhalable sustained delivery system by preparing solid lipid microparticles using glyceryl behenate (GB) and poloxamer 188 (PX) as a lipid carrier and a surfactant respectively. The method involves loading TP nanoparticles into the lipid using high shear homogenization – ultrasonication technique followed by lyophilization. The compositional variations and interactions were evaluated using response surface methodology, a Box – Behnken design of experiment (DOE). The DOE constructed using TP (X1), GB (X2) and PX (X3) levels as independent factors. Responses measured were the entrapment efficiency (% EE) (Y1), mass median

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
BER Performance Improvement of Dual Chaotic Maps Based on STBC Communication System
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Sensitive information of any multimedia must be encrypted before transmission. The dual chaotic algorithm is a good option to encrypt sensitive information by using different parameters and different initial conditions for two chaotic maps. A dual chaotic framework creates a complex chaotic trajectory to prevent the illegal use of information from eavesdroppers. Limited precisions of a single chaotic map cause a degradation in the dynamical behavior of the communication system. To overcome this degradation issue in, a novel form of dual chaos map algorithm is analyzed. To maintain the stability of the dynamical system, the Lyapunov Exponent (LE) is determined for the single and dual maps. In this paper, the LE of the single and dual maps

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 04 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education, Al-mustansiriyah University
cyclic decomposition of SL(2,p) where p=9, 25 and 27
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Genotypic Variations of Mutans Streptococci Isolated from Dental Caries by REP-PCR
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Mutans streptococci (MS) are a group of oral bacteria considered as the main cariogenic organisms. MS consists of several species of genus Streptococcus which are sharing similar phenotypes and genotypes. The aim of this study is to determine the genetic diversity of the core species of clinical strains of Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus and Streptococcus downei by using repitative extragenic palindromic (REP) primer. The DNA of the clinical strains of S. mutans (n=10), S. sobrinus (n=05) and S. downei (n=04) have been employed in the present study, which have been previously isolated from caries active subjects. The DNA of the clinical and reference strains was

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Swarm And Evolutionary Computation
Energy-aware evolutionary routing protocol for dynamic clustering of wireless sensor networks
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